[Wirtschaft] Schuldenpakt 2025 - Bedeutung von Sondervermögen und Schuldenbremse
On Tuesday March 18, 2025 the Bundestag and on Friday March 21, 2025 the Federal Council voted for a change in the debt brake and a special fund for infrastructure in the Basic Law. The CDU has advertised the debt brake in the election campaign. [1] [2] [3] Under the leadership of the designated new Chancellor and loyal transatlantic Friedrich Merz (CDU) three changes in the Basic Law were negotiated. [4] [5] [6]
First expenses for defense and other security policy expenditure beyond 1% of the gross domestic product should be exempted from the debt brake.
In the future defense and other security policy expenditure will fall under defense spending like federal expenditures for civil and population protection as well as for intelligence services, for the protection of information technology systems and for the help of states that are attacked in violation to international law (Ukraine).
Secondly the federal states will be allowed to make deficits with up to 0.35% of the gross domestic product.
And thirdly a special fund of 500 billion euros over 12 years will be set up for additional investments to achieve climate neutrality by 2045.
From this 100 billion euros are intended for the climate and transformation fund 100 billion euros is intended for the federal states for investments and 300 billion euros are intended for further investments.
As a criteria for additional investments from this special fund the investments shall exceed 10% from the federal budget without special funds and financial transactions.
A vote was decided in the Bundestag and the Federal Council for all of these three changes.
As a result one could only vote for or against all three changes.
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What is Possible
The benefits that such a demand policy can still develop today can be seen in the United States. The United States has been making more government debt than Germany for a long time.
[13] [14]The United States is always creating greater economic growth than Germany.
[15] [16]At the same time the inflation rate is only minimally above that in Germany.
[17] [18]This development is all the more impressive because the United States has an import surplus and Germany has an export surplus. With its demand policy the United States therefore partially promotes economic growth in other countries. Germany therefore has better prerequisites than the USA.
More money is a necessary condition for more demand and more demand is a sufficient condition for economic growth. So whether the state or the sum of companies are in debt in an economy is therefore secondary. In addition the interest payments of the state are interest rates on accounts and insurance companies.
A prerequisite for economic growth exceeding the initiatives expenditures of the state is a sufficiently low key interest rate for new loans. In the event of a given demand by the state the chance of independent growth is proportional to the key interest rate. To make the willingness of companies making investments to meet the prerequisites or to survive in the competition depends on the key interest rate.
What it Can Do
The state's additional expenditure decided should not only flow in the immediately socially used investments (schools, etc.) and productivity increasing investments (motorways, rails, etc.).
The additional expenses that have been made include additional defense spending.
However these are economically waste.
The economic benefits here are limited to the expenditure of the employees.
After all the expenses of the employed in this industry are the demand for other goods and services.
And this of course has been increasing at GDP since 2014.
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Less 100 billion euros for the climate and transformation fund 400 billion euros over 12 years for investments on various levels remain. With an inflation rate of 2% the money would have to increase as follows in order to allow the same purchasing power.
| Year | Onvestment Expenses - annually (2% inflation) | Investment Expenses - summed up |
| 1 | 29,80 | 29,80 |
| 2 | 30,40 | 60,20 |
| 3 | 31,00 | 91,20 |
| 4 | 31,62 | 122,82 |
| 5 | 32,26 | 155,08 |
| 6 | 32,90 | 187,98 |
| 7 | 33,56 | 221,54 |
| 8 | 34,23 | 255,77 |
| 9 | 34,92 | 290,69 |
| 10 | 35,61 | 326,30 |
| 11 | 36,33 | 362,63 |
| 12 | 37,05 | 399,68 |
According to the Cologne Institute of the German Economy (IW Köln) together with the IMK of the Hans Böckler Foundation 600 billion euros will be necessary within 10 years. According to this 190 in the renovation backlog among cities and municipalities, 200 in public investments for sustainability (energetic building renovation, network expansion and generation and storage of sustainable energies), 127 in traffic routes and public transport, 42 in educational infrastructure and 37 in social housing. This list should only be a lower limit of the investment needs. [19] [19,p.8]
The Risk of the Investment Quota
According to the press release from the budget committee however there is a risk by preventing the spending of the special fund for investments. The criteria to use this special fund should be an investment rate of 10% of the federal budget. This investment rate is currently at about 10%. An investing rest until the 10% was reached was only low or was negative, if the investment rate of 10% was exceeded from the federal budget.
| Year | Federal Budget | Investive Expenses | Investment Quota / Federal Budget | Invested Rest to 10% | Defense Budget | Defense Budget / GDP |
| 2015 | 299,3 | 29,6 | 9,89 | 0,33 | 35,18 | 1,14 |
| 2016 | 310,6 | 33,2 | 10,69 | -2,14 | 36,76 | 1,15 |
| 2017 | 325,4 | 34 | 10,45 | -1,46 | 38,31 | 1,15 |
| 2018 | 336,7 | 38,1 | 11,32 | -4,43 | 40,14 | 1,17 |
| 2019 | 343,2 | 38,1 | 11,10 | -3,78 | 44,54 | 1,26 |
| 2020 | 441,8 | 50,3 | 11,39 | -6,12 | 47,26 | 1,37 |
| 2021 | 556,6 | 45,8 | 8,23 | 9,86 | 48,53 | 1,32 |
| 2022 | 480,7 | 46,2 | 9,61 | 1,87 | 54,56 | 1,38 |
| 2023 | 457,1 | 55 | 12,03 | -9,29 | 63,62 | 1,52 |
If the defense spending (e.g. 2%) is increased the entire federal budget increases. The investment rate would therefore be under the limit of 10%with the same investments. As a result there should be an agreement on higher investments without the use of the new special fund. However the previous regulations of the debt brake apply for this. It is open whether and how it is agreed upon this.
| Year | Federal Budget | Investive Expenses | Investment Quota / Federal Budget | Invested Rest to 10% | Defense Budget | Defense Budget / GDP |
| 2015 | 325,84 | 29,6 | 9,08 | 2,98 | 61,71 | 2 |
| 2016 | 337,77 | 33,2 | 9,83 | 0,58 | 63,92 | 2 |
| 2017 | 353,71 | 34 | 9,61 | 1,37 | 66,62 | 2 |
| 2018 | 365,18 | 38,1 | 10,43 | -1,58 | 68,62 | 2 |
| 2019 | 369,36 | 38,1 | 10,32 | -1,16 | 70,70 | 2 |
| 2020 | 463,53 | 50,3 | 10,85 | -3,95 | 68,99 | 2 |
| 2021 | 581,60 | 45,8 | 7,87 | 12,36 | 73,53 | 2 |
| 2022 | 505,21 | 46,2 | 9,14 | 4,32 | 79,08 | 2 |
| 2023 | 477,19 | 55 | 11,53 | -7,28 | 83,71 | 2 |
The Risk of Repayment
Another and presumably greater risk is actually in a repayment. If, as with the special fund for the Bundeswehr and the special fund for the Corona emergency loans, repayment takes place, then demand from the economy is immediately withdrawn. Just as the state sector can create demand and thus economic growth with a budget deficit it can also withdraw demand and thus at least slow down economic growth. In addition a supposed need for savings and privatization of institutions at the least is created. However no repayment has been agreed in the current status. [23]
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Src:
[1] 12-Seiten-Papier - Rente, Überstunden, Bürgergeld: Das steht in der Agenda 2030 der CDU 2025-01-09
https://www.focus.de/finanzen/news/agenda-2030-die-cdu-plaene-zu-rente-ueberstunden-buergergeld_72d9120e-884c-4861-a862-3ec411b8764d.html
[2] Papier zur Wirtschaftspolitik - CDU will mit "Agenda 2030" Wachstum ankurbeln 2025-01-09
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/bundestagswahl/cdu-agenda-2030-100.html
[3] Bundestagswahl: CDU plant Steuerentlastungen mit Wirtschaftsprogramm "Agenda 2030" 2025-01-09
https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2025-01/cdu-wirtschaftsprogramm-agenda-2030
[4] Deutsch-Amerikanische Konferenzen - Friedrich Merz und John Emerson im Gespräch 2019-06-14
https://www.atlantik-bruecke.org/in-conversation-with-true-atlanticists-friedrich-merz-and-ambassador-john-emerson/
[5] Scholz’s Politics are Lacking in Consideration for Europe as a Whole 2024-08-06
https://www.aspeninstitutece.org/article/2024/scholzs-politics-lacking-consideration-europe-whole/
[6] How might Germany’s coming election shape future support for Ukraine? 2024-12-24
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/how-might-germanys-coming-election-shape-future-support-for-ukraine/
[7] Haushaltsausschuss beschließt Änderungen des Grundgesetzes 2025-03-16
https://www.bundestag.de/presse/hib/kurzmeldungen-1057342
[8] Grundgesetz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland - Art 109
https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/gg/art_109.html
[9] Grundgesetz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland - Art 115
https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/gg/art_115.html
[10] Grundgesetz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland - Art 143h
https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/gg/art_143h.html
[11] Gesetzentwurf zur Änderung der Artikel 109, 115 und 143h des Grundgesetzes 2025-03-18
https://www.bundestag.de/parlament/plenum/abstimmung/abstimmung?id=951
[12] Auch Bundesrat stimmt historischem Schuldenpaket zu 2025-03-21
https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/bundesrat-liveblog-schuldenpaket-schuldenbremse-abstimmung-li.3217721
[13] Germany Government Debt to GDP
https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/government-debt-to-gdp
[14] United States Gross Federal Debt to GDP
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp
[15] Germany GDP Growth Rate
https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth
[16] United States GDP Growth Rate
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth
[17] Germany Inflation Rate
https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/inflation-cpi
[18] United States Inflation Rate
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
[19] 600 Milliarden Euro für eine zukunftsfähige Wirtschaft 2024 Mai
https://www.iwkoeln.de/presse/pressemitteilungen/michael-huether-simon-gerards-iglesias-600-milliarden-euro-fuer-eine-zukunftsfaehige-wirtschaft.html
[20] Gesamtübersicht über die Entwicklung des Bundeshaushalts 1969 bis 2023 - Milliarden Euro
https://www.bundesfinanzministerium.de/Monatsberichte/Ausgabe/2024/03/Inhalte/Kapitel-6-Statistiken/6-1-11-gesamtuebersicht-entwicklung-bundeshaushalt.html
[21] Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) - Milliarden Euro
https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/4878/umfrage/bruttoinlandsprodukt-von-deutschland-seit-dem-jahr-1950/
[22] SIPRI Military Expenditure Database
https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex
[23] Bundeshaushalt durchgreifend konsolidieren: Strukturelle Veränderungen angehen, keine neuen Fluchtwege zulassen 2024-04-16
https://www.bundesrechnungshof.de/SharedDocs/Statements/DE/2024/bwv-bundeshaushalt-2025.html
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