[Außenpolitik] Preisschock 2026 - Entwicklung der Krise im mittleren Osten
A renewed price shock looms as a result of multiple crises in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz has been impassable since February 2026, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait since September 2026, and Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline has been shut down since September 2026. While China has reduced its oil imports in response to these events thereby easing upward pressure on prices it remains unclear how long the country can or will sustain this approach. Overall the situation is tense with no apparent way out. The following analysis examines the situation specifically with regard to crude oil.
Global energy supplies are once again under pressure. Following the price shock and energy crisis of 2021–2023, there is a risk that this dynamic will repeat itself, as the global economy's supply of crude oil and natural gas is being strained by security and stability issues in the Middle East. This situation is concerning for two reasons. Crude oil and natural gas serve not only as energy sources but also as raw materials for the production of other goods. Crude oil and natural gas are primarily traded on international markets.
Strait of Hormuz – The Beginning of the Crisis
The Strait of Hormuz connects the Indian Ocean with the Persian Gulf and lies between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula. It thus links various oil-exporting countries—such as Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and of course Iran with the world's oceans. As of 2025, 1,000 million tonnes (7,300 million barrels) of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz annually. This is equivalent to roughly twice the EU's oil imports and about thirteen times Germany's oil imports. Its importance for the trade in energy resources is consequently immense. [1] [2] [5]
As a result of the war waged by Israel and the USA against Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since February 28, 2026. The number of transits has dropped from 138 to two ships per day, bringing shipping traffic to a virtual standstill. And as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz the price of oil has risen from approximately 70 US dollars per barrel to around 100 US dollars per barrel. [3] [4]
[3]Bab el-Mandeb – The Second Critical Strait
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait (Gate of Tears) connects the Indian Ocean with the Red Sea and lies between the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. It links to the Suez Canal, serving as a shortcut on the route to the Mediterranean and towards Europe. Furthermore it connects Saudi Arabia to the Indian Ocean. However Saudi Arabia's major oil reserves and production sites are located on the Persian Gulf rather than the Red Sea. As of 2025, 42 million tonnes (306.8 million barrels) of oil passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait annually. This corresponds to approximately 56% of the EU's oil imports and about 10% of Germany's oil imports. [1] [2] [6]
Even before the existing tensions could be resolved, the situation in the second critical strait escalated. By September 2026, Houthi forces with whom Saudi Arabia has long been at war are on the verge of gaining full control over the strait. Traffic through this strait has also already declined. [7] [8]
Saudi-Arabias East-West-Pipeline - The Alternative Route
Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline is an oil pipeline connecting the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. It thus serves as a strategically valuable alternative route for Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves located in the Persian Gulf. By 2025, the East-West Pipeline will have an annual capacity of 350 million tonnes (2,555 million barrels) of oil. This volume corresponds to approximately 80% of the EU’s oil imports and roughly five times Germany’s oil imports. However the pipeline relies on the availability of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Suez Canal, or the Eilat–Ashkelon Pipeline (Trans-Israel Pipeline). The Eilat–Ashkelon Pipeline in turn, runs through Israel connecting the Red Sea to the Mediterranean. Its importance is immense particularly in light of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz yet it remains dependent on the situation in the Red Sea. [1] [2] [9]
On September 10, drone attacks launched from Iraq targeted this pipeline and its pumping stations. And on September 11, Saudi Arabia announced that it had taken the pipeline out of service as a precaution. [10] [11]
China's Strategic Reserves – The Demand Side Buffer
As the conflict between Israel, the US, and Iran escalates and the global market grapples with oil imports, China has nearly halved its oil imports. As one of the world's largest oil importers, China has reduced its oil imports since the outbreak of the conflict. This drop in demand has inevitably dampened the rise in oil prices. In 2025, China imported 579 million tonnes (4,227.6 million barrels) of crude oil. This figure is 1.3 times the EU's oil imports and 7.7 times Germany's oil imports. [1] [2] [12]
China has essentially achieved this reduction in oil imports by drawing on its oil reserves. While Chinese oil imports have dropped significantly, utilization rates of distillation units have decreased by only 3.28 percentage points falling to 57.72%. This situation inevitably raises the question of how long these oil reserves can or should continue to be tapped. Once China has exhausted these reserves, or decides to stop drawing on them, Chinese oil imports and consequently the price of oil will rise again. [13]
[12]Conclusion
The combination of crises in the Middle East following the energy crisis of 2021–2023 bears a resemblance to the two oil crises of the 1970s. These crises inevitably lead to price increases for energy sources, which in turn are passed on as price hikes for all other goods.
In 2025 Germany imported 75.1 million tonnes (548.5 million barrels) of crude oil, and the EU imported 435 million tonnes (3,175.5 million barrels). An immediate question arises as to how the crises and conflicts in the Middle East—which affect the entire global economy can be resolved. In the long term the question inevitably arises as to how long, and to what extent economies are willing and able to remain dependent on crude oil.
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[1] Außenhandel - Jährliche Rohölimporte
https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Wirtschaft/Aussenhandel/Tabellen/rohoel-jaehrlich.html
[2] Woher stammt das Erdöl der EU?
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/de/infographics/where-does-the-eu-get-its-oil-from/
[3] Crude Oil Prices: Brent - Europe (DCOILBRENTEU)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU
[4] Daily Ship Traffic in Strait of Hormuz Plummets From 138 to Just 2 2026-03-06
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Daily-Ship-Traffic-in-Strait-of-Hormuz-Plummets-From-138-to-Just-2.html
[5] Eskalation in Nahost - Straße von Hormus – Nadelöhr des weltweiten Ölhandels 2026-03-01
https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-strasse-von-hormus-gesperrt-was-sie-ueber-das-nadeloehr-des-oelhandels-wissen-muessen-a-b832f88f-c40a-4bf2-a045-002869413e58
[6] Houthi Threats Ignite New Oil Price Surge 2026-07-21
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Houthi-Threats-Ignite-New-Oil-Price-Surge.html
[7] Houthis Near Full Control Of Bab el-Mandeb As Red Sea Shipping Crisis Deepens 2026-09-16
https://vinnews.com/2026/09/16/houthis-near-full-control-of-bab-el-mandeb-as-red-sea-shipping-crisis-deepens/
[8] Bab Al Mandeb ship traffic plunges as Houthi threat grows 2026-09-11
https://www.logisticsmiddleeast.com/news/bab-al-mandeb-ship-traffic-plunges-as-houthi-threat-grows
[9] Saudi Arabia Offers 2 Million Barrels for Sale From the Red Sea 2026-03-13
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Arabia-Offers-2-Million-Barrels-for-Sale-From-the-Red-Sea.html
[10] Nach Drohnenangriffen - Saudi-Arabien schaltet wichtige Öl-Pipeline ab 2026-09-12
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/saudi-arabien-stellt-betrieb-von-oelpipeline-ein-100.html
[11] What the closure of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline could mean for oil flows 2026-09-14
https://apnews.com/article/saudi-pipeline-oil-iran-war-efa431e2fa771e34880c8453c62ffb92
[12] China Crude Oil Imports
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/crude-oil-imports
[13] China's June oil imports hit near 10-year low amid Iran war 2026-07-14
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-june-oil-imports-hit-near-10-year-low-amid-iran-war-2026-07-14/
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