[Wirtschaft] Preisschock 2026 - Wirtschaftliche Konsequenzen & Möglichkeiten
A renewed price shock looms as a result of multiple crises in the Middle East. The course of the 2021–2023 energy crisis illustrates how energy prices feed into price indices and inflation rates, leading to a reduction in demand. It also highlights the varying ways in which countries with budget deficits responded and how the success of these responses depended on those deficits. The following section examines the economic consequences for energy-importing countries and the options available to them.
The Strait of Hormuz has been impassable since February 2026, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait since September 2026, and Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline has been shut down since September 2026. While China has reduced its oil imports in response to these events thereby easing upward pressure on prices it remains unclear how long the country can or will sustain this approach. Overall the situation is tense with no apparent way out. [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9]
This situation is concerning for two reasons. Crude oil and natural gas serve not only as energy sources but also as raw materials for the production of other goods. Crude oil and natural gas are primarily traded on international markets. Energy-importing countries cannot simply dictate the price of energy imports nor can they immediately replace them. Heating systems and engines cannot simply be operated using different fuels. This is also referred to as the elasticity of substitution. However energy-importing countries can intervene in their economies in ways that are either supportive or detrimental.
Impact of Energy Prices and the Key Interest Rate on the Inflation Rate
Changes in energy prices inevitably feed through to the prices of all other goods and services.
Energy is required for everything consequently, energy costs are factored into the price of everything.
This dynamic can be observed in the energy crisis of 2021–2023.
Higher energy prices led to higher prices in both the USA and Eurozone member states.
However a distinction must be made here between the price index and the change in the price index that is the inflation rate.
While the inflation rate rose and fell at the same speed, the price index rose but did not fall back down.
In other words prices underwent a one-time increase.
The standard response to a rise in the inflation rate is to raise the key interest rate.
When the key interest rate rises, loans become more expensive, and consequently, the demand for investment and thus for labor declines.
Lower demand for labor weakens the position of employees and trade unions in wage negotiations.
This in turn eases pressure on prices.
This measure was also taken during the energy crisis of 2021–2023.
This is a result of a short-term price shock being confused with long-term inflation and of central banks continuing to try to control inflation with the interest rate.
Such behavior is futile against a price shock as higher interest rates cannot make imported raw materials cheaper.
And in addition higher interest rates sabotage an economy in the event of a price shock by placing an additional burden on it.
Impact on Foreign Trade and Demand
For energy-importing countries such an energy price shock has the immediate consequence of rising import prices.
For these economies, this means that more is spent on energy imports, leaving less available for other goods and services.
Consequently the material prosperity of the affected economies declines.
However if the demand for goods and services falls the demand for labor also decreases.
Without countermeasures the affected economies consequently experience higher unemployment and potentially a recession.
This dynamic can also be observed in the energy crisis of 2021–2023. As a result of rising prices for energy imports the imports of the affected economies have increased in nominal terms.
Demand Resulting from a Price Shock and an Economic Stimulus Package
When the state generates revenue it withdraws demand from the economy when it incurs expenditure, it injects demand into the economy. One person's expenditure is always another's income, and vice versa. Consequently a budget deficit creates demand, while a budget surplus withdraws it. Nevertheless a state cannot go bankrupt as it holds a currency monopoly determining what constitutes legal tender and the currency in which taxes must be paid. The state must essentially ensure that its own demand does not exceed the economy's capacity.
It is difficult to clearly distinguish between the drop in demand caused by the 2021–2023 energy crisis and the consequences of pandemic related measures.
The two overlap in terms of timing.
However it is evident that countries exhibit varying levels of budget deficits and differing rates of economic growth.
Germany for instance is characterized by particularly low budget deficits alongside an economic recession.
At the other end of the spectrum the USA shows particularly high budget deficits and the strongest economic growth.
Even Italy and France which, like Germany, are Eurozone members record larger budget deficits and higher economic growth than Germany.
While energy-importing countries cannot lower energy prices, the state can certainly influence the impact in terms of unemployment and economic growth.
Thus it has been demonstrated that economies can grow despite the energy crisis of 2021–2023.
Ultimately it wasn't just Germany that was affected by this price shock.
There is no:
Either costs for energy imports fall or Germany's recession will continue.
Germany is still making far too little use of demand-side policies.
Germany is holding back itself and not is solely held back by increased costs for energy imports.
Germany implemented a fuel subsidy the "fuel discount" in 2026.
This subsidy, which has since expired, lowered fuel prices through tax cuts.
According to the ifo Center for Public Finance (ifo Zentrum für Finanzwissenschaft) an average of 12 cents per liter for diesel, 16 cents for Super E5, and 15 cents for Super E10 was passed on to consumers.
The government incurred a budget deficit due to reduced revenue, thereby boosting purchasing power and demand.
An additional windfall tax, a tax on above average profits, would have been appropriate.
In this way, the budget deficits would have translated more into actual spending and less into corporate savings.
[10]
Conclusion
The energy price shock currently unfolding will very likely lead to a rise in the price index and a temporary increase in the inflation rate. Energy importing countries will see a decline in demand. In the short term, an economic stimulus package can mitigate the consequences of a price shock. A higher key interest rate however cannot halt rising energy prices. In the long term the question inevitably arises as to how long, and to what extent economies are willing and able to remain dependent on crude oil.
Preview:
Src:
[1] AMECO database
https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-research-and-databases/economic-databases/ameco-database_en
[2] Euro Area Interest Rate (%)
https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/interest-rate
[3] United States Fed Funds Interest Rate (%)
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate
[4] Eskalation in Nahost - Straße von Hormus – Nadelöhr des weltweiten Ölhandels 2026-03-01
https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-strasse-von-hormus-gesperrt-was-sie-ueber-das-nadeloehr-des-oelhandels-wissen-muessen-a-b832f88f-c40a-4bf2-a045-002869413e58
[5] Houthis Near Full Control Of Bab el-Mandeb As Red Sea Shipping Crisis Deepens 2026-09-16
https://vinnews.com/2026/09/16/houthis-near-full-control-of-bab-el-mandeb-as-red-sea-shipping-crisis-deepens/
[6] Bab Al Mandeb ship traffic plunges as Houthi threat grows 2026-09-11
https://www.logisticsmiddleeast.com/news/bab-al-mandeb-ship-traffic-plunges-as-houthi-threat-grows
[7] Nach Drohnenangriffen - Saudi-Arabien schaltet wichtige Öl-Pipeline ab 2026-09-12
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/saudi-arabien-stellt-betrieb-von-oelpipeline-ein-100.html
[8] What the closure of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline could mean for oil flows 2026-09-14
https://apnews.com/article/saudi-pipeline-oil-iran-war-efa431e2fa771e34880c8453c62ffb92
[9] China Crude Oil Imports
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/crude-oil-imports
[10] Entlastung an der Zapfsäule: Ifo-Studie: Wem der Tankrabatt wirklich nützt
https://www.zdfheute.de/wirtschaft/tankrabatt-oelkonzerne-wirkung-100.html
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