[Wirtschaft] Deutschlands Rezession erklärt - Mythen und Sackgassen
Economic growth slumped in various countries in 2020. The reason for this is a negative price shock. As a result the countries affected by the price shock have to pay more for imports and at the same time lose demand and thus employment. However most of the affected countries were able to overcome this price shock. Yet Germany is stuck in its recession. But instead of taking a macroeconomic perspective or learning from other countries the debate in Germany is blinded by its own smokescreens.
The Myths
The state and its size are often blamed for the recession. The state with its rules and required bureaucracy supposedly hinders or even prevents economic growth. Such claims are dubious anyway since Germany didn't introduce bureaucracy overnight. And in fact the signs point in the opposite direction. For example the bureaucracy cost index has been falling for years. The Bureaucracy Cost Index from the Federal Statistical Office is intended to summarize the bureaucratic burden on companies in a single figure and plot it over time. This includes the filing of applications, the completion of notifications, labeling, reporting to statistics, and the provision of evidence. And this Bureaucracy Cost Index has decreased by approximately 6% overall since 2012.
[2]Furthermore the trend in public sector employment is also moving in the opposite direction. While there are more people employed in the public sector today than in 2000. The total number of employed persons has increased by 19% since 2000 from 36 Mio. to 43 Mio. in 2024. At the same time, the number of employed persons in the public sector has increased by only 7% since 2000 from 4.9 Mio. to 5.3 Mio. in 2024. The myth of a growing or even out-of-control public sector can thus be considered refuted. In light of this development anyone who wants to speed up bureaucratic processes should also advocate for more public sector employees. If administrative and government procedures take too long then the responsible authorities should be adequately staffed instead of lowering their own standards.
[1, NELN] [5]If administrative and government procedures take too long then the responsible authorities should be adequately staffed instead of lowering their own standards.[1, NELN] [5]
But perhaps the most absurd claim is that Germany is in a recession due to a shortage of skilled workers or labor. Ultimately this claim asserts that there is a lack of skilled workers or labor while as a result of the recession employed people are being laid off and the unemployment rate is rising. There is a demonstrable shortage of jobs not workers. This is easily seen when comparing the number of job openings and the number of unemployed. The ratio of job openings to unemployed has been diverging again since 2020.
[3]This can be seen in detail in the ratio of job vacancies to the number of unemployed. The ratio for unskilled workers is 8.7 with 1,365,000 unemployed and only 157,000 registered job vacancies. The ratio for skilled workers is 1.6 with 718,000 unemployed and only 436,000 registered job vacancies. And for specialists/experts the ratio is 1.9, with 325,000 unemployed and only 167,000 registered job vacancies. Any attempts to reduce unemployment by making it more difficult are therefore an intellectual dead end. One can't force unemployed people into jobs that don't exist. [4, p.19]
Dead Ends
During the federal election campaign the CDU announced a new version of Agenda 2010 dubbed Agenda 2030. Even before the 2025 federal election, the CDU made it clear that they intended to repeat the labor market and welfare state reforms of Agenda 2010. The plans specifically criticize benefits for the unemployed. The citizen's allowance is not geared enough towards performance incentives and should therefore be replaced by a new basic security. This openly states what is already being done with Agenda 2010. The promise of prosperity of the past has given way to a threat of misery. [6] [7] [8]
While wages are the largest cost for corporations, they are also the largest source of income for other corporations.
This is not only inappropriate but counterproductive. The reduction in social benefits as a result of Agenda 2010 has already led to lower wage levels and a lower implicit minimum-wage. The more unpleasant unemployment is the greater the willingness to accept bad and poorly paid jobs. While wages are the largest cost for corporations, they are also the largest source of income for other corporations. It can therefore be assumed that lower wages will destroy more demand in the larger domestic economy than can be gained from the smaller export economy. And this is precisely what happened with Agenda 2010. The competitiveness that Germany gained through lower wages relative to productivity corresponds to the lost demand for the domestic economy. That's why the total volume of working hours has remained almost constant since Agenda 2010.
The competitiveness that Germany gained through lower wages relative to productivity corresponds to the lost demand for the domestic economy.[1, NLHA] [1, NELN]
In addition the Agenda 2030 already announced plans to gradually reduce corporate tax from 15% to 10%. The corporate tax is the tax on the revenue of certain legal entities, such as corporations, cooperatives, associations, institutions and foundations. Such tax cuts are usually intended to stimulate investment but this fails to mention that the corporate tax only applies to the revenue, i.e. at a time when a decision has already been made for or against an investment. In addition high incomes will once again benefit from this tax cut. People with high incomes have a low expenditure rate compared to people with low incomes. If the income is correspondingly low little or nothing can be saved. [6] [7] [8] [9]
In June 2025 the Bundestag and Bundesrat then decided on a so-called investment booster. This would subsidize electric cars for companies. Unfortunately companies tend to lease company cars which is why these subsidies don't apply. Furthermore the depreciation rules are being changed so that more value can be written off earlier. Unfortunately this doesn't mean that more value can be written off over the entire lifespan of the acquisitions. And it was decided to further reduce corporate tax that capital corporations pay on profits. This is particularly stupid since the corporate sector has already transformed from debtors to savers and investment volumes are at an all-time low despite multiple reductions of the corporate tax rate at the same time. The corporate sector is already withdrawing demand from the economy and should not be rewarded for it. Because in a system in which nothing else changes every saving leads to a shrinkage. [10] [11] [12, p.22]
[1, UVGD] [1, UITT] [12, p.22]
[Economics] Germany's Recession Explained - Relevant and Myths separated from each other
[Economics] Germany's Recession Explained - Options for Action
Src:
[1] AMECO database
https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-research-and-databases/economic-databases/ameco-database_en
[2] Bürokratiekostenindex
https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Staat/Buerokratiekosten/Erfuellungsaufwand/buerokratiekostenindex.html
[4] Arbeitslose und gemeldete offene Arbeitsstellen 2000 - 2024
https://www.sozialpolitik-aktuell.de/files/sozialpolitik-aktuell/_Politikfelder/Arbeitsmarkt/Datensammlung/PDF-Dateien/abbIV32.pdf
[4] Berichte: Arbeitsmarkt kompakt | März 2024 - Arbeits- und Fachkräftemangel trotz Arbeitslosigkeit
https://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/DE/Statischer-Content/Statistiken/Themen-im-Fokus/Fachkraeftebedarf/Generische-Publikationen/Arbeits-und-Fachkraeftemangel-trotz-Arbeitslosigkeit.pdf
[5] Beschäftigte im öffentlichen Dienst: Deutschland, Stichtag, Beschäftigungsbereich, Dienstverhältnis, Beschäftigungsumfang
https://www-genesis.destatis.de/datenbank/online/statistic/74111/table/74111-0002
[6] 12-Seiten-Papier - Rente, Überstunden, Bürgergeld: Das steht in der Agenda 2030 der CDU 2025-01-09
https://www.focus.de/finanzen/news/agenda-2030-die-cdu-plaene-zu-rente-ueberstunden-buergergeld_72d9120e-884c-4861-a862-3ec411b8764d.html
[7] Papier zur Wirtschaftspolitik - CDU will mit "Agenda 2030" Wachstum ankurbeln 2025-01-09
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/bundestagswahl/cdu-agenda-2030-100.html
[8] Bundestagswahl: CDU plant Steuerentlastungen mit Wirtschaftsprogramm "Agenda 2030" 2025-01-09
https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2025-01/cdu-wirtschaftsprogramm-agenda-2030
[9] Körperschaftsteuer - Bundesfinanzministerium
https://www.bundesfinanzministerium.de/Content/DE/Glossareintraege/K/koerperschaftsteuer.html?view=renderHelp
[10] Maue Konjunktur - Kabinett billigt milliardenschwere Steuerentlastungen für Unternehmen 2025-06-04
https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/kabinett-billigt-milliardenschwere-steuerentlastungen-fuer-unternehmen-a-1f3a5250-6348-46b9-b93d-6500a8347b51
[11] Bundestag stimmt für Investitionssofortprogramm der Koalition
https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2025/kw26-de-investitionssofortprogramm-1084772
[12] Albrecht Müller - Die Revolution ist fällig - ISBN 978-3-86489-307-0
Kommentare
Kommentar veröffentlichen