[Wirtschaft] Deutschlands Rezession erklärt - Relevantes und Mythen voneinander getrennt
Economic growth slumped in various countries in 2020. The reason for this is a negative price shock. However most of the affected countries were able to overcome this price shock. Yet Germany is stuck in its recession. Since 2022 there has been almost no economic growth.
The Starting Point
Germany is clearly in a recession. Just like the other major euro-currency member-states France, Italy, and Spain Germany's GDP collapsed in 2020. After the 2020 slump and the 2021 recovery economic growth has stagnated. Adjusted for inflation demand for domestic goods and services remains at the same level as in 2021. At the same time the other major euro-currency member-states France, Italy, and Spain managed to avoid recession and achieved economic growth.
Inevitably the questions arise as to what the affected countries have in common as they share a comparable slump in 2020 and what the difference is that Germany of all countries remains in recession.
Although there are various attempts to explain the recession not all of them have relevance. Explanations that see bureaucracy, an alleged shortage of skilled workers or workers in general as the cause can be discarded immediately. Germany does not have a significant shortage of skilled workers or workers in general especially since the recession is leading to plant closures and rising unemployment. And the idea that only Germany suddenly has bureaucracy or all of a sudden has too much bureaucracy can also be rejected as this argument lacks logic. Inevitably the questions arise as to what the affected countries have in common as they share a comparable slump in 2020 and what the difference is that Germany of all countries remains in recession.
[1, OVGD]The Price-Shock
As a result of various events many places experienced a negative price shock. Just as quickly as the inflation rate rose in the affected countries it also fell again. Specifically imports and especially energy imports became more expensive. This means that countries are paying more for imports and especially for energy imports than before.
This means that countries are paying more for imports and especially for energy imports than before.
This negative price shock was driven by the measures taken in response to the COVID-19 pandemic the effects of the war in Ukraine and political mistakes. Supply chains were disrupted and goods had to be replaced under new conditions and at new prices. The high proportion of energy imports from Russia and the political rift with Russia have increased the cost of energy imports. Specifically energy sources are being imported from other countries of origin. Furthermore energy sources continue to be imported from Russia but now expensively by ship instead of cheaply via pipelines.
[1, ZCPIN]
Aside from the effects of the war in Ukraine the EU has already taken another significant step to increase the price of natural gas.
Before the start of the Russo-Ukrainian-War the market for natural gas imports was liberalized by the EU.
Previously natural gas deliveries to the EU were agreed upon via long-term contracts.
Flexible delivery volumes with minimum and maximum quantities can be negotiated.
And the price can partly be constant and partly be tied to the current price level.
High prices are given up in favor of more planning security.
[4]
[5]
Due to liberalization low price levels and planning security were abandoned in favour of a new flexibility. In one of the most important trading points for natural gas in Europe the average price remained for about a decade at around 20 Euros/MWh. And before the outbreak of the war on February 24, 2022 the price of natural gas rose to approximately 80 Euros/MWh in January 2022. The resulting price increases for natural gas and electricity before February 24, 2022 are clearly visible. [4] [5]
[2] [2, alt] [3] [3, alt]After the German Federal Government has called for the second of three levels of alert about a shortage in June 2022. The subsequent price increase can be attributed primarily to the decisions of the German Federal Government to fill the local gas storage facilities as quickly as possible. The German Federal Government had publicly announced to save the country from an impending scarcity of natural gas. For this the company Trading Hub Europe (THE) has been given the sovereign order to fill the gas storages at the technically maximum speed. The price should explicitly not be respected while purchasing. [6] [7]
This behavior has caused two predictable consequences. By not paying attention to the price excessively high prices were inevitably paid. In fact since June 2022 the price rose from approximately 80 Euros/MWh to up to 337 Euros/MWh. And the money for these price levels with inevitably come down to the end consumers. [8]
This behavior was neither expedient nor necessary. Purchases could have started earlier and could have happend over a longer time. For this purpose schedule transactions could have been agreed. At the beginning the gas storages had a level of approximately 50% and were then filled up to the winter within 6 months. Especially in winter the need is higher due to the heating season. But the gas storages had a level of approximately 60% at the end of March 2023. The resulting price increases for natural gas on the wholesale market are clearly visible. [9]
[8]The Demand Gap
The fact that the countries affected by the price shock pay more for imports and especially for energy imports than before is already a problem as more demand from the domestic market is tied up for imports. In addition the additional costs do not flow back in the same amount as demand for exports. As a result the countries affected by the price shock have to pay more for imports and at the same time lose demand and thus employment. If the additional cost of imports were offset by demand for exports then the countries concerned would be less prosperous overall but there would be the same demand and therefore employment. The countries affected by the price shock therefore lack demand.
As a result the countries affected by the price shock have to pay more for imports and at the same time lose demand and thus employment.[1, UVGD] [1, UXGS] [1, UMGS] [1, UBCABOP]
If the additional cost of imports were offset by demand for exports then the countries concerned would be less prosperous overall but there would be the same demand and therefore employment.
For Germany the situation is further complicated by the fact that since monetary union there have been growing foreign trade and current account surpluses as well as a dependence on exports. These foreign trade and current account surpluses were achieved through wage restraint and the abolition of exchange rates since monetary union. However as a result of wage restraint the domestic economy stagnated. Wages are the largest expense for companies and at the same time the largest source of income for other companies. Consequently foreign trade and current account surpluses in Germany have become the main driver of demand. The increased costs for imports and especially for energy imports hit the people in Germany particularly hard as a result of wage restraint.
[Economics] Germany's Recession Explained - Options for Action - 2025-11-26
[Economics] Germany's Recession Explained - Myths and Dead Ends - 2025-11-28
Src:
[1] AMECO database
https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-research-and-databases/economic-databases/ameco-database_en
[2] Strompreis aktuell: So viel kostet die Kilowattstunde 2025-08-10
https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/Strompreis-aktuell-So-viel-kosten-die-Kilowattstunden,strompreis182.html
https://storage.googleapis.com/ndrdata-csv-cors/inflation/strompreis/verivox_12_month_electricity_price_weighted_mean_long_dw.csv?v=1756235824501
[3] Gaspreis aktuell: So viel kostet die Kilowattstunde 2025-08-27
https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/Gaspreis-aktuell-wie-viel-kostet-Kilowattstunde,gaspreis142.html
https://storage.googleapis.com/ndrdata-csv-cors/inflation%2Fgaspreis%2Fverivox_12monthgasprice_weighted_mean_long_dw.csv?v=1756361052004
[4] Warum die EU mitverantwortlich für die hohen Gaspreise ist - 2021-11-04
https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/welt/osteuropa/politik/russland-gaspreise-gazprom-eu-100.html
[5] Despite short-term pain, the EU’s liberalised gas markets have brought long-term financial gains - 2021-10-22
https://www.iea.org/commentaries/despite-short-term-pain-the-eu-s-liberalised-gas-markets-have-brought-long-term-financial-gains
[6] Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz ruft Alarmstufe des Notfallplans Gas aus – Versorgungssicherheit weiterhin gewährleistet - 2022-06-23
https://www.bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/Pressemitteilungen/2022/06/20220623-bundesministerium-ruft-alarmstufe-des-notfallplans-gas-aus.html
[7] Wie ein gelernter Schornsteinfeger massenhaft Gas für Deutschland kauft - 2022-08-04
https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/energiekrise-die-gashamster-zu-besuch-bei-trading-hub-europe-a-d663942e-bd73-453c-b5bb-bd87aef4df03
[8] Gaspreise Großhandel in EUR/MWh
https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Gasversorgung/aktuelle_gasversorgung/_svg/Gaspreise/Gaspreise.html
[9] Verlauf der Speicherfüllstände in Prozent
https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Gasversorgung/aktuelle_gasversorgung/_svg/Gasspeicher_Fuellstand/Speicherfuellstand.html
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