[Economics] German Gas Storage - Fill Level, Shortage and Forecast

Siehe auch:
[Wirtschaft] Deutsche Gasspeicher - Füllstand und Prognose

There is currently much speculation about the fill level of Germany's gas storage facilities. The questions are how long they will last or even if they will last until they are typically refilled. While these questions are valid figures are often replaced by "expert's opinions" and unexplained assessments. The following aims to fill this gap in reporting.
Predictions are always difficult especially when they concern the future. Nevertheless the following is a non-binding forecast based on the available figures.

The key function of German gas storage facilities is not to supply the entire country or even several countries on their own. Gas storage facilities can store natural gas for extended periods thus transforming the flow of natural gas via pipeline or LNG into a stable in-stock supply.
This is relevant because it reduces fluctuations in production/extraction. And this is particularly important because natural gas consumption is not constant but fluctuates. In 2025 peak consumption was almost four times higher than peak consumption (Feb. 2025: 3926 GWh/day, Aug. 2025: 1181 GWh/day).
In this way the price of natural gas can be stabilized as the higher demand during the heating season does not meet with constant or lagging production/extraction. Instead natural gas imports can be replaced by the gas storage facilities to stabilize the price. [1e]

[1a]

In fact Germany started the 2025 heating season with lower gas storage levels than in previous years (2018-2021). While the gas storage levels were at 96.09% on October 1, 2024 this figure had dropped to only 76.31% by October 1, 2025. However Germany is also in a recession and consumes less natural gas in 2025 (approximately 10%) than in previous years (2018-2021). [1a] [1e]

The following forecast predicts the fill level of gas storage facilities from January 21, 2026 onwards. For this purpose all natural gas imports and exports are first totaled and a difference is calculated. This difference is positive. Over the period under consideration (January 2022 - January 2026) Germany continuously imported more natural gas than it exported.

[1b]

[1c] [1d]

[1b] [1c] [1d]

The average from January 1st to 24th, 2026 is used as a benchmark for the balance of local natural gas production/extraction, imports and exports. This is simply because not all available figures end on the same day. From January 1st to 24th, 2026 an average of 3,186 GWh/day of natural gas was produced/extracted and imported as well as 853 GWh/day of natural gas was exported. [1b] [1c] [1d]
Of course, natural gas is also consumed. These consumption figures are available for 2025 and as averages for the preceding years (2018-2021). [1e]

Month	Average Consumption 2025 / GWh/Tag	Average Consumption 2018-2021 / GWh/Tag
January	3988	4156
February	3926	4069
March	2877	3486
April	2019	2475
May	1567	2020
June	1235	1562
July	1210	1528
August	1181	1490
September	1483	1765
October	2298	2514
November	3235	3483
December	3492	3818

[1e]

The average from January 1st to 24th, 2026 is used as a guideline for the balance of natural gas imports and exports. This is simply because not all available figures end on the same day. From January 1st to 24th, 2026 an average of 3,186 GWh/day of natural gas was produced/extracted, imported and 853 GWh/day of natural gas exported. Of course natural gas is also consumed. These consumption figures are available for 2025 and as averages for the preceding years (2018-2021). [1b] [1c] [1d] [1e]

Finally, the figures are compiled. The capacity of German gas storage facilities is 250,600 GWh. The fill level of the gas storage facilities as of January 21, 2026, was 39.74% (99,588 GWh).
From this level, the net import calculated above (+3,186 - 853 GWh/day) is added for each day, and the consumption listed above (Jan.: 3,988, Feb.: 3,926, Mar.: 2,877, Apr.: 2,019 GWh/day) is subtracted. Furthermore, an alternative scenario was calculated in which Germany consumes as much natural gas (Jan.: 4,156, Feb.: 4,069, Mar.: 3,486, Apr.: 2,475 GWh/day) as in the previous years (2018-2021).
This suggests that the gas storage levels will reach their lowest point of approximately 10% between the end of March and the beginning of April, before rising again. However, if Germany consumes as much gas as in previous years (2018-2021), then net imports must increase beforehand. Neither of these forecasts is guaranteed to come true, as neither consumption nor net imports necessarily occur as predicted.

[1a] [1b] [1c] [1d] [1e] [2]

In any case panic and doomsday scenarios should be avoided. The fear of a natural gas shortage and the inappropriate actions of the then-federal government exacerbated the price shock in 2022-23. After the German Federal Government has called for the second of three levels of alert about a shortage in June 2022. The subsequent price increase can be attributed primarily to the decisions of the German Federal Government to fill the local gas storage facilities as quickly as possible. The German Federal Government had publicly announced to save the country from an impending scarcity of natural gas. For this the company Trading Hub Europe (THE) has been given the sovereign order to fill the gas storages at the technically maximum speed. The price should explicitly not be respected while purchasing. [3] [4]

This behavior has caused two predictable consequences. By not paying attention to the price excessively high prices were inevitably paid. In fact since June 2022 the price rose from approximately 80 Euros/MWh to up to 337 Euros/MWh. That was an increase of 321%. And the money for these price levels with inevitably come down to the end consumers. A repetition of such dynamics should be prevented. And encouraging the repetition of these mistakes is either a sign of poor mental health or just dishonesty. [5]

Src:
[1] Ak­tu­el­le La­ge der Gas­ver­sor­gung in Deutsch­land
https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Gasversorgung/aktuelle_gasversorgung/start.html
[1a] Verlauf der Speicherfüllstände in Prozent
https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Gasversorgung/aktuelle_gasversorgung/_svg/Gasspeicher_Fuellstand/Speicherfuellstand.html
[1b] Gasimporte in GWh/Tag
https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Gasversorgung/aktuelle_gasversorgung/_svg/Gasimporte/Gasimporte.html
[1c] Gasförderung in Deutschland in GWh/Tag
https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Gasversorgung/aktuelle_gasversorgung/_svg/Gasfoerderung/Gasfoerderung.html
[1d] Gasexporte in GWh/Tag
https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Gasversorgung/aktuelle_gasversorgung/_svg/Gasexporte/Gasexporte.html
[1e] Gasverbrauch in Deutschland, monatlicher Mittelwert / GWh/Tag
https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Gasversorgung/aktuelle_gasversorgung/_svg/Gasverbrauch_Gesamt_monatlich/Gasverbrauch_Gesamt.html
[2] Gasspeicherkapazitäten
https://energien-speichern.de/erdgasspeicher/gasspeicherkapazitaeten/
[3] Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz ruft Alarmstufe des Notfallplans Gas aus – Versorgungssicherheit weiterhin gewährleistet - 2022-06-23
https://www.bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/Pressemitteilungen/2022/06/20220623-bundesministerium-ruft-alarmstufe-des-notfallplans-gas-aus.html
[4] Wie ein gelernter Schornsteinfeger massenhaft Gas für Deutschland kauft - 2022-08-04
https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/energiekrise-die-gashamster-zu-besuch-bei-trading-hub-europe-a-d663942e-bd73-453c-b5bb-bd87aef4df03
[5] Gaspreise Großhandel in EUR/MWh
https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Gasversorgung/aktuelle_gasversorgung/_svg/Gaspreise/Gaspreise.html