[Wirtschaft] Eine neue Agenda 2010 - Was eine neue bedeuten könnte
Addendum 2025-03-20:
The date of the euro introduction was corrected.
Due to high unemployment and weak economic growth Germany was considered the sick man of Europe in the 90s. However after the introduction of the euro in Germany in 1999 and the Agenda 2010 the German economy began to grow which was admired by many. The unemployment rate has dropped from about 10% in 2002 to about 5% in 2019.
Under German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) (1998-2005) a supply-side and employer-friendly policy was established in Germany. Although Schröder was and is a social democrat the low wage sector has been expanded under him. To this end the level of social assistance and wages were reduced among other things as part of Agenda 2010. The goal was to reduce unemployment. The logic was that unemployment would fall if the price of labor in the form of wages declined. And in a state with a welfare system there is always an implicit wage in the amount of social assistance.
The result was not that additional work was created but that the available work was distributed to more people. While unemployment has fallen the number of hours worked remained almost unchanged. And reducing real wages has also increased the number of those who live in poverty despite work.
In the previous part it was explained how the real wage level was reduced down as a result of Agenda 2010 among other things by reducing social benefits. However it can be proven that no jobs were created, but rather that existing jobs were simply distributed among several people. For Germany this resulted in a stagnating domestic economy and an increased export quota and export dependency. In addition uninterrupted foreign trade surpluses were generated. These claims can be lost in the event of insolvency, are inevitably devalued as a result of inflation and are also devalued in the event of a currency reform. And for the population in addition to the reduced real wage level this has meant an increase in poverty and an increase in part-time employment. As a result of recent economic developments there is now a risk of a repeat of this supply-side policy this time by the CDU/CSU.
A possible Reason
When the Agenda 2010 was implemented Germany had poor economic indicators such as high unemployment and low economic growth. Now the economic indicators are bad again. Unemployment rose from 5.7% to 6% from 2023 to 2024. Economic growth fell from 0.60% to -0.04% from 2022 to 2023.
[1] [2] [3]And the foreign trade surplus often praised by politicians recently fell to 2.24% in 2022. This could be interpreted as a lack of competitiveness and be the reason for implementing a new Agenda 2010. [1] [6]
[1] [6] [7]The CDU/CSU Agenda 2030
Now the CDU/CSU is actually planning a new Agenda 2010 under the name Agenda 2030. These measures are intended to achieve an economic turnaround and economic growth of at least 2%.
The debt brake is to be maintained. This is a clear rejection of an active demand policy.
In addition the solidarity surcharge is to be completely abolished. This is obviously a policy for high incomes at the expense of the tax authorities. Because since 2021 the solidarity surcharge has only been levied on high incomes. In 2023 the income from the solidarity surcharge amounted to 12.2 billion euros. It is not clear how this income will be replaced or which expenditures will be cut. [11] [12]
The daily maximum working hours are to be abolished and a weekly maximum working hours are to be introduced instead.
A stock pension is to be introduced. What is always left out is that switching from taxes to revenues for a pension insurance does not create any added value. Generally it can bei asserted that a pension can only be generated by the working population. Whether this is collected through taxes or returns on shares is secondary.
The corporate tax is to be gradually reduced from 15% to 10%. The corporate tax is the tax on the revenue of certain legal entities, such as corporations, cooperatives, associations, institutions and foundations. Such tax cuts are usually intended to stimulate investment but this fails to mention that the corporate tax only applies to the revenue, i.e. at a time when a decision has already been made for or against an investment. In addition high incomes will once again benefit from this tax cut. People with high incomes have a low expenditure rate compared to people with low incomes. If the income is correspondingly low little or nothing can be saved. [13]
And perhaps the decisive point is that the benefits for the unemployed are once again being criticized. The citizen's allowance is not geared enough towards performance incentives and should therefore be replaced by a new basic security. This openly states what is already being done with Agenda 2010. The promise of prosperity of the past has given way to a threat of misery. [8] [9] [10]
The Consequences
As already deduced in the previous part the Agenda 2010 has not created any additional work. This is evident from the number of hours worked by all employed people.
[4] [4, alt]Since the number of employed persons increased during the same period this came at the expense of working hours per employed person.
[4] [4, alt]This reduction in unemployment with constant working hours for all employed persons is also evident in the growing proportion of part-time workers.
[5]And the reduction in real wage levels is evident on the one hand in the growth of those at-risk-of-poverty rate.
[9]The Alternative
The CDU/CSU's plans for a new Agenda 2010 would therefore repeat old mistakes and continue or even exacerbate the poor development of the past. The alternative arises from one of the consequences of Agenda 2010. The reduction in real wage levels is also evident in the stagnating domestic economy. As the entire economy is not so elastic that wage levels run parallel to prices the reduction in real wage levels slowed down the domestic economy.
[1] [6] [7]Consequently real wage levels must rise again. The opposite of what is planned must be done.
[Wirtschaft] Eine neue Agenda 2010 - Wozu die alte geführt hat Src:[1] Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) - Milliarden Euro
https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/4878/umfrage/bruttoinlandsprodukt-von-deutschland-seit-dem-jahr-1950/
[2] Inflationsrate in Deutschland von 1950 bis 2023
https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/4917/umfrage/inflationsrate-in-deutschland-seit-1948/
[3] Arbeitslosenquote in Deutschland im Jahresdurchschnitt von 2005 bis 2024
https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1224/umfrage/arbeitslosenquote-in-deutschland-seit-1995/
[4] Frohe Kunde aus dem "Jobwunderland" Deutschland. Da lohnt ein genauerer Blick auf die Zahlen und die andere Seite der Medaille 2018-01-03
https://aktuelle-sozialpolitik.blogspot.com/2018/01/frohe-kunde-aus-dem-jobwunderlanderland.html
https://www.sozialpolitik-aktuell.de/files/sozialpolitik-aktuell/_Politikfelder/Arbeitsmarkt/Datensammlung/PDF-Dateien/tabIV46.pdf
[5] Anteil der Teilzeiterwerbstätigen in Deutschland nach Geschlecht von 2011 bis 2023
https://www.sozialpolitik-aktuell.de/files/sozialpolitik-aktuell/_Politikfelder/Arbeitsmarkt/Datensammlung/PDF-Dateien/abbIV8d.pdf
https://de.statista.com/themen/120/armut-in-deutschland/#topicOverview
[6] Saldo der Außenhandelsbilanz (Differenz zwischen Exporten und Importen von Waren) von Deutschland von 1991 bis 2023 - Milliarden Euro
https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/37793/umfrage/exportueberschuss-in-deutschland-seit-1999/
[7] Wert der Importe nach Deutschland von 1991 bis 2023 - Milliarden Euro
https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/161401/umfrage/importe-nach-deutschland/
[8] 12-Seiten-Papier - Rente, Überstunden, Bürgergeld: Das steht in der Agenda 2030 der CDU 2025-01-09
https://www.focus.de/finanzen/news/agenda-2030-die-cdu-plaene-zu-rente-ueberstunden-buergergeld_72d9120e-884c-4861-a862-3ec411b8764d.html
[9] Papier zur Wirtschaftspolitik - CDU will mit "Agenda 2030" Wachstum ankurbeln 2025-01-09
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/bundestagswahl/cdu-agenda-2030-100.html
[10] Bundestagswahl: CDU plant Steuerentlastungen mit Wirtschaftsprogramm "Agenda 2030" 2025-01-09
https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2025-01/cdu-wirtschaftsprogramm-agenda-2030
[11] Gesetz zur Rückführung des Solidaritätszuschlags 1995
https://www.bgbl.de/xaver/bgbl/start.xav?startbk=Bundesanzeiger_BGBl&jumpTo=bgbl119s2115.pdf#__bgbl__%2F%2F*%5B%40attr_id%3D%27bgbl119s2115.pdf%27%5D__1737212660725
[12] Steuereinnahmen durch den Solidaritätszuschlag in Deutschland von 2010 bis 2023
https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/30376/umfrage/steuereinnahmen-des-bundes-durch-den-solidaritaetszuschlag/
[13] Körperschaftsteuer - Bundesfinanzministerium
https://www.bundesfinanzministerium.de/Content/DE/Glossareintraege/K/koerperschaftsteuer.html?view=renderHelp
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