The interview by Tucker Carlson with Vladimir Putin has been quoted and cited many times and mentioned more often.
But so far some statements have hardly been viewed and thought further.
Among other things it was pointed out that other states could claim Ukrainian soil. This does not have to be a complete merger of the state institutions. A question of individual aspects could be enough to further reduce the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
According to Treaty of Trianon from 1920 Hungary made several territorial concessions with ethnically Hungarian residents. The residents in the ceded areas thus lost the Hungarian citizenship. However the Hungarian government created the prerequisite with a law in 2010 so that these ethnic Hungarians can gain Hungarian citizenship. [2] [3]
The Hungarian minority in Ukraine does not enjoy such rights for now or for the foreseeable future. The former areas and the Hungarian minorities are repeatedly an issue in Hungary. And in 2022 the right wing Hungarian politician Laszlo Toroczkai (MHM) proposed to occupy or even connect to the Ukrainian areas with Hungarian minority if the Ukraine were no longer a fully functional state. [5] [6]
In addition the Hungarian government has been giving out passports to Ukrainians at least since 2019. One of the main reasons for this is the conflict of both governments. Due to the prohibition of other languages except Ukrainian in public and a lack of minority rights there is a dispute between the two governments. [7]
And just like Hungary the Romanian government has been giving out passports to Ukrainian citizens at least since 2019. Here too the conflict of both governments is an essential reason for this. The prohibition of other languages then Ukrainian in public and the lack of minority rights also caused a dispute between the two governments. [7]
This fits with the statements of the spokesman from the National Security Council of the United States John Kirby after the French President has proposed to send his own troops to Ukraine. According to this it would be the sovereign decision of every state to send their own troops to Ukraine. He only made a cancellation regarding the use of US troops. [9] [10]
Russia has thus created an older and four younger precedents. One can take land from the Ukraine away and don't have to give it back.
Preventing the alleged genocide in Donbass was possible and in the interest of these areas. As the OSCE has observef 75 % of the casualties in the period under review fell on civilians in the self-declared republics of Luhansk and Donetsk. This does not justify the term genocide but this threat is one reason for Russia's military escalation.
[1] Ukraine: Zugehörigkeit zu den Ethnien im Jahr 2001
https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1299164/umfrage/ethnien-in-der-ukraine/
[2] New Hungary citizenship law fuels passport demand 2011-01-04
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-12114289
[3] Streit um Pässe: Ungarn legt sich mit Nachbarn an 2010-05-27
https://taz.de/Streit-um-Paesse/!5142134/
[4] Flag wars - A row about a Hungarian flag in Romania 2013-02-13
https://www.economist.com/eastern-approaches/2013/02/21/flag-wars
[5] Orban provoziert mit Großungarn-Schal - Nicht jeder Nachbar kann darüber lachen 2022-11-24
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/ungarn-orban-123.html
[6] Aufteilung der Ukraine - Träume vom "Großreich" in Ungarn und Rumänien 2024-02-10
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/ukraine-ungarn-rumaenien-100.html
[7] Nicht nur Putin verteilt in der Ukraine grosszügig Pässe 2019-05-02
https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/nicht-nur-putin-verteilt-in-der-ukraine-grosszuegig-paesse-498373341696
[8] Ria 2022-04-28
https://ria.ru/20220428/polsha-1785925942.htm
[9] US Says Won't Send Troops To Ukraine After Macron Comments 2024-04-27
https://www.barrons.com/news/us-will-not-send-troops-to-fight-in-ukraine-white-house-8864139b
[10] Biden Administration Shoots Down Suggestion of Sending Troops to Ukraine 2024-04-27
https://www.newsweek.com/biden-administration-shoots-down-suggestion-sending-troops-ukraine-1874069
[11] Civilian casualties in the conflict-affected regions of eastern Ukraine - 2020-11-09
https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/469734
Among other things it was pointed out that other states could claim Ukrainian soil. This does not have to be a complete merger of the state institutions. A question of individual aspects could be enough to further reduce the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
The Minorities of Ukraine
According to the census in 2001 there were 44.1 million Ukrainians. The large groups are 77.8% or 37.5 million ethnic Ukrainians and 17.3% or 8.3 million ethnic Russians, with a clear east-west divide. The smaller groups comprise 0.8% or 508,600 ethnic Romanians, 0.3% or 156,600 ethnic Hungarians and 0.3% or 144,100 ethnic poles. These minorities are concentrated locally and at the border regions of their countries of origin. [1]According to Treaty of Trianon from 1920 Hungary made several territorial concessions with ethnically Hungarian residents. The residents in the ceded areas thus lost the Hungarian citizenship. However the Hungarian government created the prerequisite with a law in 2010 so that these ethnic Hungarians can gain Hungarian citizenship. [2] [3]
Hungarians
6.6% or 1,432.00 Hungarians live in Romania. And in 2013 around 400,000 Hungarians gained Hungarian citizenship the majority of them in Romania. Since Romania has been a member of the EU since 2007 and Romanian citizens have had visa freedom in the Schengen since 2024 the consequences are minor ones. [4]The Hungarian minority in Ukraine does not enjoy such rights for now or for the foreseeable future. The former areas and the Hungarian minorities are repeatedly an issue in Hungary. And in 2022 the right wing Hungarian politician Laszlo Toroczkai (MHM) proposed to occupy or even connect to the Ukrainian areas with Hungarian minority if the Ukraine were no longer a fully functional state. [5] [6]
In addition the Hungarian government has been giving out passports to Ukrainians at least since 2019. One of the main reasons for this is the conflict of both governments. Due to the prohibition of other languages except Ukrainian in public and a lack of minority rights there is a dispute between the two governments. [7]
Romanians
The Romanian minority in Ukraine is much larger. But the development is a similar one. In January 2024 the right wing politician Claudiu Tarziu (AUR) pleaded to connect both the Ukrainian areas with a Romanian minority and Moldova to Romania. [6]And just like Hungary the Romanian government has been giving out passports to Ukrainian citizens at least since 2019. Here too the conflict of both governments is an essential reason for this. The prohibition of other languages then Ukrainian in public and the lack of minority rights also caused a dispute between the two governments. [7]
Poland
On April 28, 2022 the Russian foreign intelligence service (SVR) reported plans to obtain the control of Ukrainian areas by Poland. The goal should be the protection against Russian aggression. The sending of troops would work on the basis of a coalition of the willing and without a NATO mandate. [8]This fits with the statements of the spokesman from the National Security Council of the United States John Kirby after the French President has proposed to send his own troops to Ukraine. According to this it would be the sovereign decision of every state to send their own troops to Ukraine. He only made a cancellation regarding the use of US troops. [9] [10]
The Condition creating Events
Since the beginning of the conflict in 2014 Russia has taken large parts of Ukraine with the Crimean peninsula and the four Oblasts in the southeast. And without the local Russian population this would not have been possible like that.Russia has thus created an older and four younger precedents. One can take land from the Ukraine away and don't have to give it back.
Conclusion
Two essential things should be observed when assessing the situation. The three states mentioned have a stressful relationship with Ukraine. And the protection of the related minority in Ukraine was already used by Russia as the goal for the use of armed forces.Preventing the alleged genocide in Donbass was possible and in the interest of these areas. As the OSCE has observef 75 % of the casualties in the period under review fell on civilians in the self-declared republics of Luhansk and Donetsk. This does not justify the term genocide but this threat is one reason for Russia's military escalation.
[1] Ukraine: Zugehörigkeit zu den Ethnien im Jahr 2001
https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1299164/umfrage/ethnien-in-der-ukraine/
[2] New Hungary citizenship law fuels passport demand 2011-01-04
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-12114289
[3] Streit um Pässe: Ungarn legt sich mit Nachbarn an 2010-05-27
https://taz.de/Streit-um-Paesse/!5142134/
[4] Flag wars - A row about a Hungarian flag in Romania 2013-02-13
https://www.economist.com/eastern-approaches/2013/02/21/flag-wars
[5] Orban provoziert mit Großungarn-Schal - Nicht jeder Nachbar kann darüber lachen 2022-11-24
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/ungarn-orban-123.html
[6] Aufteilung der Ukraine - Träume vom "Großreich" in Ungarn und Rumänien 2024-02-10
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/ukraine-ungarn-rumaenien-100.html
[7] Nicht nur Putin verteilt in der Ukraine grosszügig Pässe 2019-05-02
https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/nicht-nur-putin-verteilt-in-der-ukraine-grosszuegig-paesse-498373341696
[8] Ria 2022-04-28
https://ria.ru/20220428/polsha-1785925942.htm
[9] US Says Won't Send Troops To Ukraine After Macron Comments 2024-04-27
https://www.barrons.com/news/us-will-not-send-troops-to-fight-in-ukraine-white-house-8864139b
[10] Biden Administration Shoots Down Suggestion of Sending Troops to Ukraine 2024-04-27
https://www.newsweek.com/biden-administration-shoots-down-suggestion-sending-troops-ukraine-1874069
[11] Civilian casualties in the conflict-affected regions of eastern Ukraine - 2020-11-09
https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/469734
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