In hindsight of the referendums and partial mobilization carried out by the Russian government an analysis of the events and the possible intention is described here.
In addition the Russian government announced partial mobilization on September 21. This includes 300,000 reservists. They are intended to secure the areas along and behind the front line in southern and eastern Ukraine. It would be expedient to replace the Russian soldiers in the Ukraine and if necessary to strengthen them with active soldiers from Russia and to strengthen the vacancies at home with reservists. [2] [3]
The prevention of Ukraine joining NATO has long since taken place due to the treaty. Since a state must have territorial integrity to join and Ukraine lost control of Crimea and the Donbass in 2014 it cannot join. [7, en] [7, de]
Preventing the alleged genocide in Donbass was possible and in the interest of these areas. As the OSCE has observef 75 % of the casualties in the period under review fell on civilians in the self-declared republics of Luhansk and Donetsk. This does not justify the term genocide but this threat is one reason for Russia's military escalation. [8, p.16]
The sheer possibility of a denazification of Ukraine depends very much on the individual assessment. This is divided into a cultural and a political-military part. The political-military part is made up of units and politics. The Azov Regiment for example remains the most significant representative easily recognizable by the symbols of the swastikas in the black sun and the SS runes in the Wolfsangel and of substantial evidential value after being incorporated into the regular armed forces of Ukraine in 2014. [9] [10] [11] [12] In addition the Ukrainian government attracted attention with anti-Russian policies such as the ban on the Russian language. [13] [14] And the cultural part is most likely represented by Stepan Bandera. Bandera was a supporter of a Ukrainian state when one did not exist. But Bandera is also considered responsible for the systematic murder of Jews and Poles. [15]
Demilitarization of Ukraine is impossible in the long term. The potential for military attacks and sabotage by irregular forces is infinite. The Ukrainian population in this conflict proves this enough. However the shutdown of Ukrainian infrastructure is possible and has already happened in part in order to limit the possibilities of Ukraine's actions.
The actions of the Russian government were therefore sufficiently predictable. At the same time the announced goals were vague enough and partly contradictory. The Russian government has plenty of room to either announce that its own goals have been achieved or that they need to be changed. Thus the actions of the Russian government are similar to those in the 2008 Russia-Georgia war.
And as a result of the war, the Russian government has announced that it wants to liberate all areas inhabited by Russians. In addition the population is to decide in referendums on a possible connection to Russia. However precise details were not announced. But this is where the similarities to the 2008 Russia-Georgia war end as no connection was attempted here. [16]
According to Russian doctrine and legislation Russian conscripts and in extreme cases nuclear weapons can also be used to defend their own country. Every government is capable of at least the first. This would consequently also include the areas that are the subject of the current referendums. The essential achievement of partial mobilization would thus be deterrence.
The partial mobilization of Russia reveals a need respectively a weakening of its combat value that can hardly be assessed from the outside. However since Russia also controls areas outside of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson it is possible that the Russian government could negotiate an exchange here. In this way they would reduce Russian losses. This could also explain the rapid withdrawal of the Russian armed forces from Kharkiv since there is no referendum held here it is of lesser importance to the Russian government.
Naturally it will be interesting how other states position themselves on the events. An agreement with its member states could have already taken place at the conference of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) on September 15 and 16 2022.
The current tactical activities of Ukraine are essentially based on logistics from Western countries. Whether Ukraine will even be able to resist such a dynamic depends on the position of these supporting countries.
[1] What to know about 'referendums' announced in Ukraine 'republics' to join Russia - 2022-09-23
https://abcnews.go.com/International/referendums-announced-ukraine-republics-join-russia/story?id=90201080
[2] Teilmobilisierung in Russland - Wen Moskau jetzt zu den Waffen ruft - 2022-09-27
https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Ukraine-Krieg-Wen-ruft-Russland-im-Rahmen-der-Teilmobilmachung-zu-den-Waffen-article23602542.html
[3] Putin will für Teilmobilmachung 300.000 Reservisten einberufen - 2022-09-21
https://app.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/russland-putin-will-fuer-teilmobilmachung-300-000-reservisten-einberufen/28694426.html
[4] Russland respektiert Referendum 2014-05-14
https://www.welt.de/newsticker/dpa_nt/infoline_nt/thema_nt/article127895989/Russland-respektiert-Referendum.html
[5] Separatisten ziehen Referendum in Ostukraine durch - 2014-05-11
https://www.zeit.de/news/2014-05/11/konflikte-separatisten-ziehen-referendum-in-ostukraine-durch-11180602
[6] Address by the President of the Russian Federation - 2022-09-24
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843
[7] The North Atlantic Treaty
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm?selectedLocale=en
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm?selectedLocale=de
[8] Civilian casualties in the conflict-affected regions of eastern Ukraine - 2020-11-09
https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/469734
[9] Das Bataillon Asow - Schmutziger Kampf in der Ukraine: Neonazis im Dienst der Regierung 2014-08-14
https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/das-bataillon-asow-schmutziger-kampf-in-der-ukraine-neonazis-im-dienst-der-regierung_id_4058717.html
[10] Ukraine-Konflikt im ZDF - Hakenkreuz und SS-Rune - Protest von Zuschauern 2014-09-11
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/gesellschaft/medien/ukraine-konflikt-im-zdf-hakenkreuz-und-ss-rune-protest-von-zuschauern/10685462.html
[11] Ukraine protests are no longer just about Europe 2014-01-22
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/22/ukraine-protests-europe-far-right-violence
[12] Neo-Nazis and the Far Right Are On the March in Ukraine 2019-02-22
https://www.thenation.com/article/neo-nazis-far-right-ukraine/
[13] UKRAINE-RUSSLAND-KONFLIKT - Das Russische abwürgen - 2022-01-18
https://m.faz.net/aktuell/feuilleton/debatten/ukraine-neues-sprachgesetz-soll-das-russische-zurueckdraengen-17736397.html
[14] Ukrainisches Parlament beschließt Gesetz gegen russische Sprache - 2019-04-19
https://www.derstandard.de/consent/tcf/story/2000102038947/ukrainische-parlament-beschliesst-gesetz-gegen-russische-sprache
[15] Analyse: Stepan Bandera: Geschichte, Erinnerung und Propaganda - 2022-06-22
https://www.bpb.de/themen/europa/ukraine/509748/analyse-stepan-bandera-geschichte-erinnerung-und-propaganda/
[16] Russischer Außenminister Lawrow: Geografische Ziele der Sonderoperation in der Ukraine ändern sich - 2022-07-20
https://de.rt.com/russland/143976-russischer-aussenminister-lawrow-geografische-ziele/
- Situation Russia
- Situation of the disputed Territories
- Russias announced Goals
- The possible Purpose of Russia
- Situation Ukraine
Situation Russia
The Russian government is currently holding referendums on possible connection in the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donetsk as well as Zaporizhia and Kherson. [1]In addition the Russian government announced partial mobilization on September 21. This includes 300,000 reservists. They are intended to secure the areas along and behind the front line in southern and eastern Ukraine. It would be expedient to replace the Russian soldiers in the Ukraine and if necessary to strengthen them with active soldiers from Russia and to strengthen the vacancies at home with reservists. [2] [3]
Situation of the disputed Territories
Luhansk and Donetsk already declared their independence from Ukraine in 2014. [4] [5] Zaporizhia and Cherson will now probably declare their independence from Ukraine. Since these areas like Luhansk and Donetsk were populated by Russians and the pro-Ukrainian population may have left these areas die to the war the outcome of the referenda is predictable. What is striking here however is that Russia does not control all of the territories. Parts of Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson are controlled by Ukraine. In contrast Russia currently controls Ukrainian territory here beyond These areas.Russias announced Goals
At the beginning of the Russian offensive the Russian government declared its goals. They want to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, prevent the genocide of the people in the Donbass, denazify and demilitarize Ukraine. [6]The prevention of Ukraine joining NATO has long since taken place due to the treaty. Since a state must have territorial integrity to join and Ukraine lost control of Crimea and the Donbass in 2014 it cannot join. [7, en] [7, de]
Preventing the alleged genocide in Donbass was possible and in the interest of these areas. As the OSCE has observef 75 % of the casualties in the period under review fell on civilians in the self-declared republics of Luhansk and Donetsk. This does not justify the term genocide but this threat is one reason for Russia's military escalation. [8, p.16]
The sheer possibility of a denazification of Ukraine depends very much on the individual assessment. This is divided into a cultural and a political-military part. The political-military part is made up of units and politics. The Azov Regiment for example remains the most significant representative easily recognizable by the symbols of the swastikas in the black sun and the SS runes in the Wolfsangel and of substantial evidential value after being incorporated into the regular armed forces of Ukraine in 2014. [9] [10] [11] [12] In addition the Ukrainian government attracted attention with anti-Russian policies such as the ban on the Russian language. [13] [14] And the cultural part is most likely represented by Stepan Bandera. Bandera was a supporter of a Ukrainian state when one did not exist. But Bandera is also considered responsible for the systematic murder of Jews and Poles. [15]
Demilitarization of Ukraine is impossible in the long term. The potential for military attacks and sabotage by irregular forces is infinite. The Ukrainian population in this conflict proves this enough. However the shutdown of Ukrainian infrastructure is possible and has already happened in part in order to limit the possibilities of Ukraine's actions.
The actions of the Russian government were therefore sufficiently predictable. At the same time the announced goals were vague enough and partly contradictory. The Russian government has plenty of room to either announce that its own goals have been achieved or that they need to be changed. Thus the actions of the Russian government are similar to those in the 2008 Russia-Georgia war.
And as a result of the war, the Russian government has announced that it wants to liberate all areas inhabited by Russians. In addition the population is to decide in referendums on a possible connection to Russia. However precise details were not announced. But this is where the similarities to the 2008 Russia-Georgia war end as no connection was attempted here. [16]
The possible Purpose of Russia
Since Russia does not control parts of Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Cherson there is a need for the Russian government to take action. For Russia the Ukrainian troops would be considered occupiers here.According to Russian doctrine and legislation Russian conscripts and in extreme cases nuclear weapons can also be used to defend their own country. Every government is capable of at least the first. This would consequently also include the areas that are the subject of the current referendums. The essential achievement of partial mobilization would thus be deterrence.
The partial mobilization of Russia reveals a need respectively a weakening of its combat value that can hardly be assessed from the outside. However since Russia also controls areas outside of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson it is possible that the Russian government could negotiate an exchange here. In this way they would reduce Russian losses. This could also explain the rapid withdrawal of the Russian armed forces from Kharkiv since there is no referendum held here it is of lesser importance to the Russian government.
Naturally it will be interesting how other states position themselves on the events. An agreement with its member states could have already taken place at the conference of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) on September 15 and 16 2022.
Situation Ukraine
In any case the Ukrainian government will want to stop this dynamic. But the war since 2014 and the escalation since 2022 have left Ukraine seriously damaged. Ukraine has lost more areas, lost parts of the population through war, flight and referendums, lost large parts of its access to the Black Sea and suffered damage to infrastructure and its economy as a result of the destruction.The current tactical activities of Ukraine are essentially based on logistics from Western countries. Whether Ukraine will even be able to resist such a dynamic depends on the position of these supporting countries.
[1] What to know about 'referendums' announced in Ukraine 'republics' to join Russia - 2022-09-23
https://abcnews.go.com/International/referendums-announced-ukraine-republics-join-russia/story?id=90201080
[2] Teilmobilisierung in Russland - Wen Moskau jetzt zu den Waffen ruft - 2022-09-27
https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Ukraine-Krieg-Wen-ruft-Russland-im-Rahmen-der-Teilmobilmachung-zu-den-Waffen-article23602542.html
[3] Putin will für Teilmobilmachung 300.000 Reservisten einberufen - 2022-09-21
https://app.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/russland-putin-will-fuer-teilmobilmachung-300-000-reservisten-einberufen/28694426.html
[4] Russland respektiert Referendum 2014-05-14
https://www.welt.de/newsticker/dpa_nt/infoline_nt/thema_nt/article127895989/Russland-respektiert-Referendum.html
[5] Separatisten ziehen Referendum in Ostukraine durch - 2014-05-11
https://www.zeit.de/news/2014-05/11/konflikte-separatisten-ziehen-referendum-in-ostukraine-durch-11180602
[6] Address by the President of the Russian Federation - 2022-09-24
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843
[7] The North Atlantic Treaty
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm?selectedLocale=en
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm?selectedLocale=de
[8] Civilian casualties in the conflict-affected regions of eastern Ukraine - 2020-11-09
https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/469734
[9] Das Bataillon Asow - Schmutziger Kampf in der Ukraine: Neonazis im Dienst der Regierung 2014-08-14
https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/das-bataillon-asow-schmutziger-kampf-in-der-ukraine-neonazis-im-dienst-der-regierung_id_4058717.html
[10] Ukraine-Konflikt im ZDF - Hakenkreuz und SS-Rune - Protest von Zuschauern 2014-09-11
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/gesellschaft/medien/ukraine-konflikt-im-zdf-hakenkreuz-und-ss-rune-protest-von-zuschauern/10685462.html
[11] Ukraine protests are no longer just about Europe 2014-01-22
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/22/ukraine-protests-europe-far-right-violence
[12] Neo-Nazis and the Far Right Are On the March in Ukraine 2019-02-22
https://www.thenation.com/article/neo-nazis-far-right-ukraine/
[13] UKRAINE-RUSSLAND-KONFLIKT - Das Russische abwürgen - 2022-01-18
https://m.faz.net/aktuell/feuilleton/debatten/ukraine-neues-sprachgesetz-soll-das-russische-zurueckdraengen-17736397.html
[14] Ukrainisches Parlament beschließt Gesetz gegen russische Sprache - 2019-04-19
https://www.derstandard.de/consent/tcf/story/2000102038947/ukrainische-parlament-beschliesst-gesetz-gegen-russische-sprache
[15] Analyse: Stepan Bandera: Geschichte, Erinnerung und Propaganda - 2022-06-22
https://www.bpb.de/themen/europa/ukraine/509748/analyse-stepan-bandera-geschichte-erinnerung-und-propaganda/
[16] Russischer Außenminister Lawrow: Geografische Ziele der Sonderoperation in der Ukraine ändern sich - 2022-07-20
https://de.rt.com/russland/143976-russischer-aussenminister-lawrow-geografische-ziele/
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