- The Protseste since 2014
- The parliamentary election 2015
- The referendum in 2016
- The Constituent Assembly 2017
- The presidential elections 2018
- Juan Guaido 2019
The Protseste since 2014
Since 2014, Venezuela is in a serious crisis and is repeatedly experiencing protests. On the one hand the protests complain about the poor economic situation as a result of higher unemployment and inflation and the economic recession. On the other hand the domestic political situation is also worsening. Violent crime has increased and confidence in the government and the state has fallen sharply. See:[Economics] The Economic Needs and Supplies of Venezuela
The protests in Venezuela since 2014 are result in serious and violent clashes. The protesters' means include barricaded streets as well as various missiles. [1] [2]
The quasi leader of the protests is Leopoldo Lopez of the party Peoples Will (Voluntad Popular/VP). According to himself Lopez (Voluntad Popular/VP) aims at a resignation of the current president Nicolas Maduro (Partido Socialist Unido de Venezuela/PSUV) and not a coup. However Lopez (Voluntad Popular/VP) was involved in the failed coup against the then President Hugo Chavez (Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela/PSUV). See: [3]
[History] Venezuela and the coups by and against Chavez
On September 1, 2016 the protests reached a notable climax when more than one million people or 3 % of the population demonstrated for Maduro's (Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela/PSUV) resignation. Shortly thereafter however the opposition left the negotiations moderated by the Vatican between the two sides in January 2017. Since then the direct clashes due to the protests are increasing. [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9]
The parliamentary election 2015
On December 6, 2015 the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) experienced its worst setback since Hugo Chavez was elected president in 1998. With a turnout of 74.25 % only 40.9 % voted for the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) but 56.2 % for the Democratic Unity Roundtable (Mesa de la Unidad Democratica/MUD). This broke the longtim dominance of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela/PSUV). [10] [11] [12]The opposition has joined the Alliance Democratic Union (Mesa de la Unidad Democratica/MUD). The Alliance is made up of parties of different orientation and with different goals however they are all united in their rejection of the Maduro administration. Since the elections of December 6, 2015 it represents the majority in parliament with 109 seats out of 167 seats. [13] [14] [15] [16] [17]
The referendum in 2016
The legislation of Venezuela includes the possibility of impeachment of the president by a referendum. On May 2, 2016 a referendum on the impeachment of President Maduro was initiated by the opposition at the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral/CNE). And in July 2016 the government assured that a referendum on impeachment could take place if the number of votes was sufficient. The opposition issued a petition calling for the impeachment of President Maduro with 1 % of voters and on 1 August the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral/CNE) upheld the case. However on 9 August the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral/CNE) announced that the trial would not take place before 2017. [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]- Steps for the impeachment of the president via referendum:
- 1 % of voters must sign a petition within 30 days.
- The signatures must be confirmed.
- 20 % of voters (about 4 million) have to sign a second petition.
- To be successful the referendum must be equal or greater in number to the winners of the last election (7,587,579 in 2013).
The Constituent Assembly 2017
In January 2017 the opposition left the trial moderated by the Vatican. According to the opposition the government has not done enough such as to release prisoners or to allow the impeachment of the President by a referendum. And for 2017 the election of a constituent assembly was announced. [28] [29] [30]The election of the Constituent Assembly took place on July 30, 2017. However this approach was boycotted by the opposition. In 1999 a constituent assembly was called under Hugo Chavez (Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela/PSUV). In 1999 it was supported by the voters, but in 2017 the initiative came by decree from the president. Essentially a constituent assembly serves to create a new constitution and temporarily suspending Parliament. Although the opposition has announced that it wants to prevent this but how the parliament can work while the constitution is changed is unclear. [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37]
The rivalry of the constituent assembly and parliament has continued since then. Both refer to each other and regularly as illegitimate. And on January 5, 2019 the opposition-controlled parliament even called on the military to intervene. [38] [39]
The presidential elections 2018
Immediately before the presidential election in 2018, the conflict between the government and the opposition became clear again. President Maduro announced on February 16, 2018 that the largest opposition party People's Will (Voluntad Popular/VP) will be banned from the election because it boycotted the 2017 municipal elections. And the People's Will party (Voluntad Popular/VP) has announced that they want to boycott the 2018 presidential election and do not want to nominate or endorse a candidate. According to the party People's Will (Voluntad Popular/VP) the presidential election in 2018 were not fair and manipulated in favor of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela/PSUV). President Maduro (Socialist Party Unido de Venezuela/PSUV) has threatened that he would take up arms and lead a revolution if a government were elected that would give the country's natural resources to the rich and imperialists. [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47]On April 22, 2018 then Nicolas Maduro (Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela/PSUV) won the presidential election with 67.8 %. However the turnout in 2018 was only 46.07 %. When Hugo Chavez was first elected in 1998 the turnout was 78 %. The Lima Group, an association of the Latin American countries Brazil, Colombia, Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Guyana, Santa Lucia and Canada, announced that they would not recognize the legitimacy of the election because these do not meet their requirements. And Juan Guaido (Voluntad Popular/VP) who led the opposition at the time was briefly detained after the election by the local secret service SEBIN and released. According to the government the officials acted independently and were released immediately. [48] [49] [50] [51] [52]
Juan Guaido 2019
On January 23, 2019 the then parliamentary leader Juan Guaido (Voluntad Popular/VP) proclaimed himself a transitional president accompanied by protests. The date is particularly significant because on January 23, 1958 in Venezuela the dictator Marcos Perez Jimenez was overthrown. [53] [54] [55]Meanwhile the US government has sanctioned the state-owned oil company (Petroleos de Venezuela/PdVSA) by freezing 7 billion US-Dollar in assets. According to National Security Advisor John Bolton this could result in Venezuela losing 11 billion US-Dollar. In addition Juan Guaido was given control of foreign assets of Venezuela in the USA. Juan Guaido himself has already announced that he wants to privatize parts of the oil sector. This is particularly interesting because under current law the government of Venezuela always has to be involved with at least 51 % and thus the majority of projects for the extraction of ressources. He has also announced that he is considering aid from the International Monetary Fund. This in turn is particularly interesting as Hugo Chavez broke off all contacts with the international monetary fund in 1999 calling it an institution used by the US government for its own interests. [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61]
Striking is that the situation in Venezuela is not only particularly bad but also obviously driven by the youth. The proportion of those who have experienced the times before Chavez decreases and the proportion of those who have not experienced this time increases. It will therefore be seen whether the government will convince a majority that the current situation is the lesser evil.
[1] Street blockades divide opinion in Venezuela 2014-02-27
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-26366809
[2] Venezuelans on streets again as protest leader awaits trial 2014-02-22
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/22/venezuelans-streets-protest-leader
[3] Venezuela protest leader says seeks Maduro's exit, not coup 2014-02-12
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-opposition-lopez/venezuela-protest-leader-says-seeks-maduros-exit-not-coup-idUSBREA1B1UJ20140212
[4] Despite Government Obstacles, Over a Million Venezuelans March on Caracas 2016-09-04
https://panampost.com/karina-martin/2016/09/01/despite-government-obstacles-over-a-million-venezuelans-march-on-caracas/
[5] After Venezuela Government Fails to Honor Commitments, Vatican Pulls Out of Dialogue It Sponsored
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2429464&CategoryId=10717
[6] Venezuela's opposition walks away from Vatican-backed talks 2016-12-07
https://www.dw.com/en/venezuelas-opposition-walks-away-from-vatican-backed-talks/a-36672319
[7] Venezuelan police disperse violent crowd after mass anti-govt protest (VIDEO) 2014-02-16
https://www.rt.com/news/venezuela-protests-clashes-maduro-235/
[8] Two dead in Venezuela violence as protests continue 2014-03-06
https://youtu.be/TYddGpZKooU
[9] Venezuela: Water cannon and tear gas unleashed as anti-govt. protests escalate 2017-05-03
https://youtu.be/JOaSp_JpY0g
[10] ELECCIONES A LA ASAMBLEA NACIONAL 2015 2015-12-06
http://www.cne.gob.ve/resultado_asamblea2015/r/0/reg_000000.html
[11] Venezuela election: Maduro's Socialists trounced 2015-12-07
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-35019111
[12] Offizielles Wahlergebnis in Venezuela - Staatschef Maduro ruft seine Minister zum Rücktritt auf 2015-12-09
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/venezuela-nicolas-maduro-ruft-seine-minister-zum-ruecktritt-auf-a-1066791.html
[13] Venezuela turmoil as Nicolas Maduro stays defiant following electoral defeat 2015-12-09
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/venezuela-turmoil-as-nicolas-maduro-remains-defiant-after-electoral-defeat-a6766981.html
[14] Venezuela: Maduros Machterhaltsmanöver 2015-12-28
https://diepresse.com/home/ausland/aussenpolitik/4895138/Venezuela_Maduros-Machterhaltsmanoever
[15] Venezuela Seen Handing Congress to Opposition in Sunday Vote 2015-12-06
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-06/venezuelans-to-vote-in-polls-seen-handing-congress-to-opposition
[16] Venezuela vor dem Abschied vom Sozialismus 2015-12-07
https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/schweiz/standard/erdrutschsieg-fuer-venezuelas-opposition/story/26897381
[17] SOZIALISMUS ABGEWÄHLT - Erdrutschsieg für bürgerliche Opposition in Venezuela 2015-12-07
https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article149686473/Erdrutschsieg-fuer-buergerliche-Opposition-in-Venezuela.html
[18] Venezuela government stalling recall vote to keep power, opposition claims 2016-07-27
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/27/venezuela-opposition-protests-nicolas-maduro-recall-vote
[19] Venezuela election board okays opposition recall push first phase 2016-08-02
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKCN10C3DV
[20] U.S. urges patience in Argentina, wants Venezuela recall vote this year 2016-08-04
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-usa-idUSKCN10F1SZ
[21] Venezuela timeline for Maduro recall makes 2016 vote unlikely 2016-08-09
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKCN10K1Z4
[22] OAS members urge recall vote on Venezuela's President Maduro 2016-08-12
https://www.dw.com/en/oas-members-urge-recall-vote-on-venezuelas-president-maduro/a-19469345
[23] Venezuela starts validating recall referendum signatures 2016-06-21
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36576771
[24] Venezuela election authority: No 2016 recall vote for Maduro Read 2016-09-21
http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/world/venezuela-electoral-authority-rules-out-maduro-2016-recall-vote/article/475413
[25] Anger grows as Venezuela blocks effort to recall president 2016-10-21
https://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-venezuela-recall-tension-20161021-snap-story.html
[26] Maduro opponents march after Venezuela referendum sunk 2016-10-22
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKCN12M0SY
[27] Venezuela’s Odd Transition to Dictatorship 2016-10-24
https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/venezuelas-odd-transition-dictatorship
[28] Venezuela delays state elections to 2017, opposition angry 2016-10-18
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKCN12I2QN
[29] Venezuela's opposition walks away from Vatican-backed talks 2016-12-07
https://www.dw.com/en/venezuelas-opposition-walks-away-from-vatican-backed-talks/a-36672319
[30] After Venezuela Government Fails to Honor Commitments, Vatican Pulls Out of Dialogue It Sponsored 2017-01-20
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2429464&CategoryId=10717
[31] Venezuela Muzzles Legislature, Moving Closer to One-Man Rule 2017-03-30
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/30/world/americas/venezuelas-supreme-court-takes-power-from-legislature.html?_r=0
[32] Venezuela opposition allege coup as supreme court seizes power 2017-03-30
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/30/venezuela-president-nicolas-maduro-national-assembly
[33] As Venezuela unrest spreads, Maduro presses on with plans to rewrite charter 2017-05-23
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKBN18J320
[34] Venezuelan gov't proposes constitutional assembly election on July 30 2017-06-04
https://www.efe.com/efe/english/world/venezuelan-gov-t-proposes-constitutional-assembly-election-on-july-30/50000262-3286879
[35] Venezuela to vote amid crisis: all you need to know 2017-07-30
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/25/venezuela-elections-all-you-need-to-know
[36] Venezuela: What is a National Constituent Assembly? 2017-07-31
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/07/venezuela-maduro-constituent-assembly-170729172525718.html
[37] What did Venezuelans vote for and why was it so divisive? 2017-07-31
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-40704184
[38] Venezuela's parliament rejects legitimacy of Maduro second term 2019-01-06
https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/01/06/19/venezuelas-parliament-rejects-legitimacy-of-maduro-second-term
[39] Meet the New Face of Venezuela’s Opposition 2019-01-09
https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/meet-new-face-venezuelas-opposition
[40] Venezuela opposition banned from running in 2018 election 2018-12-11
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-42304594
[41] Venezuela opposition weighs election run after talks end 2018-02-08
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-42984448
[42] Leading Venezuelan party to boycott election 2018-02-17
https://www.dw.com/en/leading-venezuelan-party-to-boycott-election/a-42623301
[43] Venezuela Opposition Will Boycott Election, and Maduro Tightens His Hold 2018-02-21
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/21/world/americas/venezuela-election-opposition-boycott.html
[44] Venezuelan opposition to boycott 'fraudulent' election 2018-02-21
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/02/venezuelan-opposition-boycott-fraudulent-election-180221193918327.html
[45] Venezuela postpones presidential election to May 20 2018-03-01
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-venezuela-politics/venezuela-postpones-presidential-election-to-may-20-idUKKCN1GD5TP
[46] Venezuela's Maduro threatens 'armed revolution' ahead of May 20 election 2018-05-03
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article210363554.html
[47] Why do so many countries think Maduro will steal Venezuela’s presidential election? 2018-05-16
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article211209854.html
[48] Venezuela elections: Maduro wins second term 2018-05-21
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/21/venezuela-elections-nicolas-maduro-wins-second-term
[49] As Trump Adds Sanctions on Venezuela, Its Neighbors Reject Election Result 2018-05-21
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/21/world/americas/venezuela-nicolas-maduro-sanctions.html
[50] Juan Guaidó: Venezuela's opposition leader briefly detained 2019-01-13
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-46857643
[51] Elecciones Presidenciales
http://www.cne.gob.ve/web/documentos/estadisticas/e006.pdf
[52] This is the day Venezuela changed. Twenty years ago, Hugo Chávez was elected president 2018-12-06
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article222712665.html
[53] Maduro faces off with U.S. over Venezuela rival’s power claim 2019-02-04
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/maduro-faces-off-with-u-s-over-venezuela-rivals-power-claim
[54] Venezuela: who is Juan Guaidó, the man who declared himself president? 2019-01-23
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/15/juan-guaido-venezuelan-opposition-leader-challenging-maduros-rule
[55] Who is Juan Guaidó? 2019-01-24
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/venezuelas-opposition-is-gambling-it-all-on-a-young-and-untested-activist-named-juan-guaido/2019/01/14/90156b76-16a4-11e9-ab79-30cd4f7926f2_story.html?utm_term=.7f7bf842d7bf
[56] Treasury sanctions Venezuela state-owned oil firm in bid to transfer control to Maduro opposition 2019-01-28
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/28/treasury-set-to-sanction-venezuela-state-owned-oil-firm-sen-rubio.html
[57] US gives Juan Guaido control over some Venezuelan assets 2019-01-29
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/01/juan-guaido-control-venezuelan-assets-190129160213052.html
[58] Venezuela's Guaido considering request for funds from IMF -sources 2019-01-25
https://uk.reuters.com/article/venezuela-politics-guaido/venezuelas-guaido-considering-request-for-funds-from-imf-sources-idUKL1N1ZP0TH
[59] Venezuela quits IMF and World Bank 2007-05-01
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2007/may/01/venezuela.imf
[60] Guaido Set To Open Venezuela’s Oil Sector To Private Firms 2019-02-05
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Guaido-Set-To-Open-Venezuelas-Oil-Sector-To-Private-Firms.html
[61] Venezuela: Juan Guaido will open up oil deals to foreign private companies, opposition leader’s US envoy says 2019-02-06
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/juan-guaido-will-open-up-oil-deals-to-foreign-private-companies-a8763821.html