Siehe auch:
[Wirtschaft] Das Makroskop Rentenpaket - Ist ein höheres Rentenniveau möglich
The magazine Makroskop has published a paper outlining potential reforms to the German pension insurance system (Deutsche Rentenversicherung/DRV). The goal is to raise the pension level provided by the German pension insurance system (Deutsche Rentenversicherung/DRV). The following section outlines and evaluates the proposed demands and measures.
The situation appears hopeless. The population is aging, meaning there are increasingly more older people relative to a shrinking number of young people. Consequently the pay-as-you-go pension system is supposedly no longer sustainable. This demographic challenge can only be resolved by shifting the pension system at least in part to a capital based model.
Wir werden immer älter und das heißt, immer mehr Alte müssen von immer weniger Jungen versorgt werden.
...
Die Lösung des Demographieproblems würden wir durch eine (teilweise) Umstellung unserer beitrags finanzierten gesetzlichen Rente auf eine kapitalgedeckte Rente erreichen.
We are living longer and longer, which means that an ever growing number of elderly people must be supported by a shrinking number of young people.
...
We could solve the demographic problem by (partially) shifting our contribution pay-as-you-go pension system to a capital based model. [1, p.2]
This or something very similar is the prevailing narrative regarding the German pension insurance system.
The magazine Makroskop has published its own pension proposal, presenting arguments that counter this narrative.
Key arguments include the assessment that the demographic challenge is overstated and that increased labor productivity can offset the effects of an aging society.
Furthermore it is argued that a funded pension scheme is no solution.
Stock market returns much like pension insurance contributions are both ultimately financed by the same national economy.
Moreover funds from a funded pension scheme can only be used to purchase goods and services that are currently being produced by others.
The following section evaluates and examines these claims.
Das „Demographieproblem“ der Sozialsysteme gibt es seit über 100 Jahren.
...
Die kapitalgedeckte Altersvorsorge löst kein Demographieproblem. Egal, ob ich als Rentner meine Brötchen durch den Verkauf von Aktien oder durch Einnahmen aus der gesetzlichen Rente bezahlen will: Es braucht eine ausreichend produktive Wirtschaft, damit es für alle genügend Brötchen gibt.
...
Der Schlüssel für die Probleme eines Sozialstaates mit einer alternden Bevölkerung ist eine ausreichende Produktivitätssteigerung, an der alle partizipieren.
The "demographic problem" facing social welfare systems has existed for over 100 years.
...
Capital based pension schemes do not solve the demographic problem. Regardless of whether I intend to pay for my daily bread as a retiree by selling stocks or through income from the pension insurance system: An economy with sufficient productivity is required to ensure there is enough bread for everyone.
...
The key to addressing the challenges faced by a welfare state with an aging population is sufficient productivity growth of which everyone participates. [1, p.2]
- The Demographic Problem – Overestimated and Misunderstood
- Capital Basen Pensions – Limitations and the Mackenroth Theorem
- Proposals for a Higher Pension Level
- Conclusion
The Demographic Problem – Overestimated and Misunderstood
A demographic profile with many young people and few elderly people is considered desirable.
It is also often claimed that the rising ratio of elderly people to young people is a new phenomenon.
These are common arguments in the debate surrounding pensions.
However the demographic problem is not new rather it is being overstated.
That is the view held by Makroskop.
Indeed the fact that the ratio of working age people to pensioners is shifting is nothing new.
Furthermore a demographic structure in which the working age population exceeds the pensioner population and the population of children and students exceeds the working age population presents another challenge.
From an economic perspective children and students are just as much recipients of transfers as pensioners are.
[1, p.7-9]
At the same time the potential for economic growth driven by productivity gains is overlooked.
The extent of the additional value that can be generated per employed person through productivity growth goes unnoticed.
Makroskop counters this view.
The real challenge regarding pensions is not simply the aging of society, but rather whether the economy's productivity growth outpaces that aging process.
Consequently a higher pension contribution rate or a raised retirement age is not necessarily required in an aging society provided pension benefits remain unchanged.
The more the economy produces per hour worked, the more pensioners can be supported.
[1, p.7-9]
Capital Basen Pensions – Limitations and the Mackenroth Theorem
At this point only capital based pensions schemes can help.
Or the pension insurance system must be supplemented by capital based pensions schemes.
These are the standard arguments in favor of capital based pensions.
However it makes no difference whether pensions are financed through taxes, contributions, or investment returns the pension remains a matter of distribution.
Makroskop points here to the Mackenroth Theorem.
According to this theorem, pensions can only be generated by the currently working population or put another way one can only acquire through a pension what is actually being produced.
[1, p.10
, p.14-15]
Geld oder auch Aktien nützen nichts, wenn ich mir dafür keine Waren kaufen kann.
...
Auch mit dem Geld einer kapitalgedeckten Rente kann ich nur kaufen, was im Augenblick meiner Rente von anderen produziert wird.
Money or even stocks are of no use if I cannot buy goods with it.
...
Even with the funds from a capital based pension scheme, I can only buy what is being produced by others at the time I receive my pension. [1, p.10]
Arguments in favor of a capital based pension scheme also point to the total costs of the pension insurance system and the additional federal subsidy (Bundeszuschuss).
Furthermore the capital based pension is intended to supplement the pension insurance system, thereby protecting contributors from rising contribution rates.
This latter argument is inherently contradictory as the additional costs associated with capital based pensions are supposed to guard against the additional costs of the pension insurance system.
Makroskop therefore highlights the federal subsidy (Bundeszuschuss)and that its share of the pension insurance system's total revenue actually fell from 27% in 2007 to 24% in 2020.
Given that pension levels are low by international standards, the federal subsidy (Bundeszuschuss)should at least be restored to its previous level.
And in light of unemployment Makroskop proposes financing this through state deficits also to reduce the unemployment rate.
[1, p.10
, p.14-15
, p.18]
Den staatlichen Schulden stehen immer Vermögenstitel gegenüber, die in der Regel von privaten Personen und Institutionen gehalten werden.[2] [2b] [3, UVGD] [4] [5] [5b]
...
An die nächste Generation werden also nicht nur Schulden, sondern auch Vermögen vererbt.
...
Wie (...) zu sehen ist, liegt der Bundeszuschuss sowohl anteilig an den Einnahmen der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung als auch an den Steuereinnahmen heute etwa wieder auf dem Niveau von 2000, (...)
Government debt is always matched by assets, which are typically held by private individuals and institutions.
...
Thus it is not only debt but also assets that are passed on to the next generation.
...
As can be seen (...) the federal subsidy (Bundeszuschuss) measured as a proportion of both statutory pension insurance revenue and tax revenue is today back at roughly the same level as in 2000, (...) [1, p.18]
Proposals for a Higher Pension Level
However Makroskop does not merely evaluate the statements and claims made by others regarding pensions it also puts forward clear proposals for increasing the pension system. In order to increase the pension level the aim is to increase the number of contributors to the system by raising the employment rate and lowering the unemployment rate and to establish a unified pension system similar to the one in Austria. This is intended to create the potential for a higher pension level. In addition the goal is to achieve higher productivity growth. This in turn is intended to better compensate the effects of an aging society. [1, p.4 , p.12-13 , p.13]
In Germany the pension level is rising more slowly than the average income, and the average income is rising more slowly than GDP per capita.
Consequently the low pension level is partly a result of low income levels.
Both need to be raised, and the state can intervene here through the minimum wage, collective bargaining coverage, and public sector wages.
This has two further positive consequences.
Demand grows more when the incomes of lower-income groups rise than when the incomes of upper-income groups rise.
The rate of spending is inversely proportional to income.
Lower income groups spend a much larger share of their income than high-income groups, thereby generating greater demand for goods and, consequently, creating more jobs.
And higher wages provide an incentive for companies to improve their productivity.
When wages are higher investments in machinery and equipment become more worthwhile, and the market for higher-quality products expands alongside the population's purchasing power.
Conversely when wages are low investments are less profitable, and the market for higher-quality products stagnates.
[1, p.4
, p.12-13]
Seit den 1980er-Jahren hinken die Löhne dem Produktivitätsfortschritt hinterher.[3a] [3b] [4, HVGDP] [4, ZCPIN] [4, UVNT] [4, NELN]
...
Zu viele Ausnahmen von der Tarifbindung schützen zwar schwache Unternehmen, der allgemeine Druck zu Innovation und Produktivitätsverbesserung geht aber verloren.
Since the 1980s wages have lagged behind productivity growth.
...
While too many exceptions to collective bargaining agreements may protect weak companies, the general pressure to innovate and improve productivity is lost. [1, p.4]
Regarding the shift to a unified pension insurance system for everyone Makroskop points to Austria.
Indeed even the German pension insurance system (Deutsche Rentenversicherung/DRV) has rated the Austrian system as superior.
Austria and Germany both have pay-as-you-go pension systems.
As far as demographic change is concerned the population pyramids of both countries are almost identical.
In addition the per capita GDP of both countries (2025) with 53,431.62 Euro (Germany) and 55,771.32 Euro (Austria) could hardly be closer.
The pension levels of both countries on the other hand could hardly be any different.
In 2024 the German pension insurance system (Deutsche Rentenversicherung/DRV) also conducted an analysis to determine why the pension level in Austria is higher than in Germany.
Austria's demographics are considered more favorable but this cannot be easily changed.
[1, p.13]
[3, HVGDP]
- higher contribution rate: +156,- Euro (+13,9%)
- more federal subsidies: +97,- Euro (+8,7%)
- more people with compulsory insurance: +159,- Euro (+14,2%)
- younger population: +139,- Euro (+12,4%)
- other factors: -25,- Euro (-2,2%)
Conclusion
The Makroskop paper calls for a higher level of benefits from the German pension insurance system (Deutsche Rentenversicherung/DRV). To finance this it advocates for a lower unemployment rate achieved through economic policy and a unified pension system that covers all working individuals, including those in the public sector. Furthermore it calls for higher productivity driven by higher wages as well as higher wages in their own right.
The demands made and the proposed methods for achieving them are economically consistent. The paper correctly explains that transfer payments, such as pensions, ultimately always depend on current economic output. In other words capital markets cannot simply conjure away demographic realities. This makes the Makroskop paper a valuable counter perspective to the often overly simplistic debate surrounding pensions.
So the rule remains: As long as someone is working pensions are secure. However the pension level is a political decision.
Src:[1] Das MAKROSKOP-Rentenpaket - Unser Rentenpaket: Paketboten gesucht! 2026-04-17
https://makroskop.eu/132026/rentenpaket-paketboten-gesucht/
https://www.datocms-assets.com/19658/1778055813-makroskop-rentenpaket.pdf
[2] Bundeszuschüsse an die Rentenversicherung 2023-07-28
https://www.bundesamtsozialesicherung.de/de/themen/rentenversicherung/finanzierung/
https://www.bundesamtsozialesicherung.de/fileadmin/redaktion/Rentenversicherung/Finanzierung/Bundeszuschuesse2022.pdf
[3] AMECO database
https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-research-and-databases/economic-databases/ameco-database_en
[4] Einnahmen und Ausgaben der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung (GRV) 2022-12-20
https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/zahlen-und-fakten/soziale-situation-in-deutschland/61857/einnahmen-und-ausgaben-der-gesetzlichen-rentenversicherung-grv/
[5] Jährliche versicherungsfremde Leistungen seit 1957 – Teufel-Tabelle
https://www.adg-ev.de/.../1387-versicherungsfremde
https://www.adg-ev.de/publikationen/publikationen-altersvorsorge/1387-versicherungsfremde-leistungen-2015?start=2
[6] „Vorbild“ Österreich? Was macht unser Nachbarland anders bei der Rente? 02/2024
https://rentenupdate.drv-bund.de/DE/1_Archiv/Archiv/2024/03_Oesterreich.html
Kommentare
Kommentar veröffentlichen