[Economics] Remedy or Wishful Thinking - Could higher Natural Gas Deliveries from Russia to the EU be possible again

Siehe auch:
[Wirtschaft] Rettung oder Einbildung - Wären höhere Erdgaslieferungen aus Russland in die EU wieder möglich

Russia has been an essential supplier of natural gas for Europe and the EU member states for a long time. As a result of the Russo-Ukrainian-War however the natural gas deliveries were questioned and partly abandoned.
Russia has been an essential supplier of natural gas for Europe and the EU member states for a long time. As a result of the Russo-Ukrainian-War however the natural gas deliveries were questioned and partly abandoned.

The economic relationship between the EU or its member states and Russia are strained at the very least. Nevertheless Russia continues to supply natural gas to EU member states even in 2026. Due to technical limitations and political decisions these natural gas deliveries are steadily declining.

Situation regarding the Supply of Natural Gas from Russia

At the beginning of 2022 natural gas deliveries through the Yamal Pipeline (via Poland) were halted. According to the Polish government Russia is responsible for the delivery stop. While the Russian government claims that the reason is the absence of further orders. And at the end of 2022 Russia offered to resume these natural gas deliveries.
And until early 2025 Russia supplied natural gas through Ukraine. Consequently this did not prevent the escalation of the war in Ukraine. [8]

Two key trends are evident when looking at total natural gas imports. On the one hand the share of Russian natural gas deliveries has decreased from approximately 40% to 50% in 2021 to 5% to 10% in 2026. On the other hand the share of natural gas deliveries via LNG has increased from approximately 15% to 25% in 2021 to 40% to 50% in 2026. [1a]

[1a]

[1a]

Balance of Pipeline Deliveries

Europe has long imported natural gas from Russia. For this purpose an extensive network of pipelines exists:

• Nord Stream, via Germany
• Yamal, via Poland
• via Ukraine
• Turk Stream, via Turkey

The Nord Stream 1 and 2 Pipelines (via Germany) are 4 threads that run through the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany. North Stream 1 and 2 run almost parallel and each have a capacity of 55 billion m³/year or 110 billion m³/year in total.
On September 26, 2022 an explosion of the pipelines took place between Sweden and Poland. Three out of four threads were blown up. Since the leaked sea water has entered the three threads the inside's coating corroded and presumably caused irreparably damage. However one single thread still remains functional. [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]

The Yamal Pipeline (via Poland) runs from Russia through Belarus and Poland to Germany. The pipeline was put into operation in 1999 and has a capacity of 33 billion m³/year. But Natural gas deliveries from Russia were discontinued in 2022. [2] [3] [4] [5] [7] [8]

From Russia through Ukraine to the EU runs the Soyuz and the Urengoi-Pomary-Schuhhorod Pipeline. The entire capacity of Ukraine to export natural gas to the EU is at 178 billion m³/year. Based on this the Ukraine has the greatest capacities of a single country. However this information is based on the condition that the connection to the Jamal Pipeline is used as a feed towards Ukraine. But the exact routes of the pipelines would be beyond the scope of this analysis.
As a result of the Russo-Ukrainian-War a compressor station of the Sojus Pipeline in the Luhansk Oblast was taken by Russian armed forces. This caused the Ukraine to stop the natural gas delivery of 33 billion m³/year towards the EU on May 10, 2022. The remaining natural gas deliveries from Russia through Ukraine were stopped at the beginning of 2025 after Ukraine refused to extend contracts. [3] [5] [10,S.3] [11] [12]

The Blue- und Turk-Stream pipeline (via Turkey) run from Russia through the Black Sea and Turkey to the EU. After both pipelines merge in Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania are connected to them. Blue stream was put into operation in 2003 and has a capacity of 16 billion m³/year. And Turk stream was put into operation in 2020 and has a capacity of 32 billion m³/year.
As a result of this bypass Hungary signed a contract with the Russian Gazprom group in September 2021 on natural gas deliveries. The contract includes the delivery of 4.5 billion m³/year over 15 years. This is remarkably as this contract completely bypasses the Ukraine as a transitland. [2] [3] [13]

In summary it can be stated that natural gas deliveries to the EU via pipeline and the Russian share thereof have declined significantly. Even if the political will existed Germany could no longer import as much via Nord Stream as before. The operational capacity has halved, as only one pipeline is currently functioning. Natural gas deliveries from Russia via Poland or Ukraine can be ruled out for the foreseeable future. Both countries have voluntarily ended natural gas deliveries from Russia. Only via Turkey are natural gas deliveries from Russia still taking place.

[1a] [1b]

Balance of LNG Deliveries

As a result of tensions between the EU and Russia LNG production capacity has been expanded and natural gas deliveries via LNG have increased. However it is striking that the share of natural gas deliveries from Russia via LNG has remained almost constant.

[1c]

EU Decision on Natural Gas from Russia

It is commonly argued that a boycott of natural gas deliveries from Russia reduces or even prevents its ability to wage war. Consequently it is assumed that Russia needs foreign currency revenue to wage war. This makes sense to a certain extent since a reduction in export revenue reduces the possibilities for imports. However Russia has its own currency and a monopoly over it. Therefore the Russian state is not dependent on foreign currency revenue to pay its armed forces and arms manufacturers.

Nevertheless in January 2026 the EU Commission decided to ban natural gas deliveries from Russia. Short-term contracts for LNG and pipeline gas are scheduled to end on April 25 and June 17, 2026 respectively. Long-term contracts for LNG and pipeline gas are scheduled to end on January 1 and September 30, 2027 respectively. However a one-month extension is possible if EU member states are unable to sufficiently replenish their gas storage facilities before the winter of 2027/28. Furthermore if an EU member state declares an energy crisis it can request a temporary exemption from the import ban from the EU Commission. [14] [15]

In the wake of the Iran-War and the possibility of another energy price shock energy imports from Russia have once again become relevant. The US government has temporarily permitted the purchase of Russian oil. And the Russian government has once again offered increased deliveries of oil and natural gas. However the German government has rejected the easing of sanctions. [16] [17] [18] [19]

Conclusion

Despite the political situation existing gas deliveries of Russia are served stable and even larger deliveries would be possible. However even if the political will exists within the EU to import more natural gas from Russia again significant obstacles remain. Reversing the import ban at the EU level is ultimately a question of political will not physical constraints.

It is up to Poland or Ukraine to allow significant quantities of natural gas from Russia to flow through existing pipelines again. And Germany in particular has little influence both because Nord Stream's capacity is drastically limited and because the political will is currently lacking. Furthermore the willingness to build new pipelines is questionable as long as the attack on Nord Stream remains unsolved.

Src:
[1] European natural gas imports - Publishing date: 13 March 2026
https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/european-natural-gas-imports
[1a] country_data_2026-03-04
https://www.bruegel.org/sites/default/files/2026-03/Gas%20Tracker%20update%20week%209%202026.zip
[1b] route_data_2026-03-04
https://www.bruegel.org/sites/default/files/2026-03/Gas%20Tracker%20update%20week%209%202026.zip
[1c] LNG plot data 2026-03-05
https://www.bruegel.org/sites/default/files/2026-03/Gas%20Tracker%20update%20week%209%202026.zip
[2] Wie Europa mit Gas versorgt werden soll - 2012-12-07
https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/pipeline-ts-104.html
[3] The Gas Pipelines Linking Russia and Europe - 2022-02-03
https://www.statista.com/chart/26769/russian-european-gas-pipelines-map/
[4] Über diese Pipelines kommt russisches Gas - 2022-08-19
https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/wirtschaft/erdgas-pipeline-ukraine-krieg-russland-100.html
[5] Durch welche Pipelines kommt das Gas? - 2022-03-08
https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/gaspipelines-kapazitaeten-101.html
[6] Ermittler gehen von Bomben mit großer Sprengkraft aus - 2022-09-29
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/nord-stream-lecks-ermittler-gehen-von-bomben-mit-grosser-sprengkraft-aus-a-089aef88-b323-45f1-9ec8-74491bf8b5fc
[7] Russland stoppt Gaslieferungen - Darum geht es im Konflikt um die Jamal-Pipeline - 2021-12-29
https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Darum-geht-es-im-Konflikt-um-die-Jamal-Pipeline-article23026417.html
[8] Das Pipeline-Paradox: Putins Gas fließt jetzt über Deutschland nach Polen - 2022-04-27
https://www.focus.de/finanzen/erdgas-aus-russland-gasstopp-warum-deutschland-fuer-polen-jetzt-zum-gas-vermittler-wird_id_90365652.html
[9] Russia ready to resume gas supply to Europe via Yamal-Europe gas pipeline - 2022-12-25
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/25/europe/russia-yamal-europe-gas-pipeline/index.html
[10] MASTER PLAN - Ukrainian Gas Transmission System (UGTS) Priority Objects Modernisation and Reconstruction
https://www.energycharter.org/fileadmin/DocumentsMedia/Presentations/CBP-Ukraine_GTS.pdf
[11] Gasversorgung in Deutschland gewährleistet: Ukraine sucht laut Habeck nach neuen Wegen für Gas-Transit - 2022-05-11
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/ukraine-sucht-laut-habeck-nach-neuen-wegen-fur-gas-transit-8140147.html
[12] Ende 2024 kommt kein Gas mehr aus Russland, warnt Ex-OMV-Chef Roiss - 2023-06-01
https://www.derstandard.de/story/3000000172646/russische-gaslieferungen-nach-oesterreich-enden-laut-ex-omv-chef-roiss-2024
[13] Ukraine und Ungarn bestellen wegen Gasstreit Botschafter ein - 2021-09-28
https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/ukraine-und-ungarn-bestellen-wegen-gasstreit-botschafter-ein-a-b6e68d3c-9284-4d35-a1df-f5c9d4958771
[14] Sanktionen - EU-Kommission will russische Gasimporte komplett verbieten
https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/sanktionen-eu-kommission-will-russische-gasimporte-komplett-verbieten-a-79c770bd-2d3b-4950-ba0f-7819dd521bc9
[15] Gas aus Russland: EU besiegelt schrittweises Import-Verbot 2026-01-26
https://www.dw.com/de/eu-russland-gas-import-verbot-erdgas-gaslieferungen-ungarn-slowakei-ukraine-krieg-energie/a-75663206
[16] "Wir haben das nie abgelehnt" - Putin bietet Europa Öllieferungen an - unter Bedingungen 2026-03-09
https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Putin-bietet-Europa-Oellieferungen-an-unter-Bedingungen-id30449727.html
[17] Steigende Öl- und Gaspreise: Putin bietet Europa Öl und Gas an - unter Bedingungen 2026-03-09
https://www.zdfheute.de/politik/ausland/putin-russland-gaslieferungen-europa-100.html
[18] Steigende Energiepreise - USA erlauben vorübergehend Kauf russischen Öls 2026-03-13
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/usa-russisches-erdoel-100.html
[19] USA erlauben Moskau Öl-Verkauf: Merz: Lockern von Sanktionen gegen Russland "falsch" 2026-03-13
https://www.zdfheute.de/politik/ausland/merz-kritisiert-lockern-sanktionen-russland-falsch-100.html