As tense as the situation in Ukraine is and as interested as people are in knowing when the war will end it is difficult to make predictions. In any case the overarching conflict could continue. Since the next crack in the fault line is already visible.
The Situation
Georgia is a divided country. With the dissolution of the Soviet Union the region of South-Ossetia in the north and the region of Abkhazia separated from Georgia. This division most recently led to a war in August 2008 in which Russia was also involved. The EU Council of Ministers then set up the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission (IFFMCG).
The investigative commission ruled that none of the Georgian government's explanations for the war were justified. It was recognized that the Georgian military started the war by shelling the civilian population of the self-proclaimed republics. The claim that Russia started or wanted to start the war could not be confirmed. After the end of the war Russia recognized the self-proclaimed republics of South-Ossetia and Abkhazia. [1, I] [1, II] [1, III]
Just as with Ukraine a NATO Membership Action Plan was agreed with Georgia in April 2008. This was done as part of the rapprochement with NATO. A NATO Membership Action Plan includes explicit tasks for a country and is considered the last step before joining NATO. [2]
Most recently there was a dispute over a so-called foreign agent law in Georgia. Such a registration law mandates that political actors from abroad must register, document and have their work approved. Such laws are not uncommon and are intended to protect against foreign interference. The USA introduced such a law in 1938 and Canada in 2024 thus around the same time as Georgia. And the EU has been working on such a law at least since 2023. [3] [4] [5] [6] [7]
A Comparison
Georgia is now in a similar situation to that of Ukraine in 2014. On May 11, 2014 the Donetsk and Lugansk regions declared themselves independent from Ukraine. And so just like Georgia Ukraine does not control the entire claimed territory. [8] [9]
In addition there was already a civil war in Ukraine similar to that in Georgia. Until Russia entered the war on February 24, 2022 an internal Ukrainian civil war was taking place between the central government and the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. The fighting power was inevitably proportional to the size of the sides and consequently the often cited Russian accusation of genocide is not far off.
Preventing the alleged genocide in Donbass was possible and in the interest of these areas. As the OSCE has observef 75 % of the casualties in the period under review fell on civilians in the self-declared republics of Luhansk and Donetsk. This does not justify the term genocide but this threat is one reason for Russia's military escalation. [10, p.16]
In addition a dispute is currently escalating in Georgia that is similar to the so-called Euromaidan in Ukraine with interference from foreign politicians. Until 2014 there was competition for Ukraine to sign an agreement with either the European Union (EU) or the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). In 2014 this competition was decided in favor of the agreement between Ukraine and the European Union (EU). [11] [12]
As a result of the spy law passed in Georgia protests broke out. It is unusual that foreign politicians are getting involved this time too. The chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the German Bundestag Michael Roth (SPD) appeared at these protests and joined the demonstrations. And the EU has announced that it will probably reduce political and financial support. [13] [14] [15]
Conclusion
A change of government of any kind could reignite Georgia's dispute with the self-proclaimed republics of Abkhazia and South-Ossetia. There is therefore a considerable risk that a similar scenario to that in Ukraine will occur in Georgia again. And support from the West which is likely due to the rapprochement with NATO would make this another de facto proxy war against Russia.
In addition a war in Georgia would prevent any deliveries of natural gas from Azerbaijan. There are currently plans to increase deliveries of natural gas from Azerbaijan. However in the event of a war there would be no way to do this. Russia would have to be avoided for political reasons, Georgia would have to be avoided for security reasons and Armenia is not an option for Azerbaijan. Iran would be an obvious choice from a geographical point of view but it is impractical due to the sanctions. [16]
The winner however would be the USA. From 2021 to 2023 the EU imported around 40% LNG measured by the its entire import of natural gas. During the same period about 50% of this LNG came from the USA. Due to the long distances to consumers measured from the coast this natural gas is also traded across national borders and thus distorts further statistics. A war in Georgia would not prevent this dynamic but would accelerate it. [17]
[1] Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Conflict in Georgia 2009-09-30
https://www.refworld.org/sites/default/files/attachments/4ac464e52.pdf
https://www.refworld.org/sites/default/files/attachments/4ac465202.pdf
https://www.refworld.org/sites/default/files/attachments/4ac4656b2.pdf
[2] NATO decisions on open-door policy 2008-04-03
https://www.nato.int/docu/update/2008/04-april/e0403h.html
[3] Foreign Agents Registration Act
https://www.justice.gov/nsd-fara
[4] Canada starts setting up foreign agent registry amid reports of Chinese election meddling
https://www.reuters.com/world/canada-starts-setting-up-foreign-agent-registry-amid-reports-chinese-election-2023-03-10/
[5] Legislation to counter foreign interference receives Royal Assent 2024-06-21
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-safety-canada/news/2024/06/legislation-to-counter-foreign-interference-receives-royal-assent.html
[6] EU ‘foreign agents’ law spooks NGOs 2023-03-13
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-ursula-von-der-leyen-ngo-qatargate-foreign-agents-law-disturbs-ngos/
[7] Planned EU foreign influence law will not criminalise or discriminate, Brussels says 2023-12-12
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/12/12/planned-eu-foreign-influence-law-will-not-criminalise-or-discriminate-brussels-says
[8] "Referendum" in der Ostukraine unglaubwürdig 2014-05-10
https://www.dw.com/de/referendum-in-der-ostukraine-unglaubw%C3%BCrdig/a-17620572
[9] Donetsk separatist leader says oblast will form its own government, including military 2014-05-11
https://archive.kyivpost.com/article/content/war-against-ukraine/separatists-start-their-referendum-in-donbas-347247.html
[10] Civilian casualties in the conflict-affected regions of eastern Ukraine - 2020-11-09
https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/469734
[11] Abkommen mit EU gestoppt - Ukraine rückt näher an Russland 2013-11-21
https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/abkommen-mit-eu-gestoppt-ukraine-rueckt-naeher-an-russland-100.html
[12] Hintergrund zur Ukraine - Das Assoziierungsabkommen mit der EU 2014-03-19
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/assoziierungsabkommen-ts-104.html
[13] GEORGIEN - Massenproteste in Georgien wegen umstrittenem "Agenten"-Gesetz 2013-03-07
https://www.derstandard.de/story/2000144259223/massenproteste-in-georgien-wegen-umstrittenem-agenten-gesetz
[14] SPD-Außenexperte Michael Roth reist wegen umstrittenen Gesetzes nach Georgien 2024-05-12
https://www.rnd.de/politik/georgien-spd-aussenexperte-michael-roth-unterstuetzt-demonstranten-FABD53AWGBBQXOBTX64RZ7BGKY.html
[15] Kürzung der Unterstützung - EU bestraft Georgien für umstrittenes Gesetz 2024-06-24
https://www.n-tv.de/politik/EU-bestraft-Georgien-fuer-umstrittenes-Gesetz-und-will-politische-Kontakte-herunterfahren-article25039579.html
[16] Statt aus Russland könnte Europa ab 2025 Gas aus Aserbaidschan über die Ukraine erhalten 2024-07-03
https://www.diepresse.com/18631429/statt-aus-russland-koennte-europa-ab-2025-gas-aus-aserbaidschan-ueber-die-ukraine-erhalten
[17] European natural gas imports - 2024-01-31
https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/european-natural-gas-imports
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