More than three years after voters in Great Britain voted to leave the EU both major parties the Social Democrats (Labor) and the Conservatives (Tory) are deeply divided.
At least with their internal disputes both of them block the implementation of the referendum.
The fact that the exit from the EU has not been implemented after such a long time can even make one believe that it is not supposed to be implemented.
How much Brexit is still desired is shown by the elections and polls since the referendum. In the election to the EU parliament in Great Britain the Brexit party of the same name by the former UKIP leader Nigel Farage was elected with 30.5% as the strongest party. [1] Particularly in surveys Great Britain is repeatedly shows a skeptical or even negative attitude towards the EU. While the average within the EU 45% have a positive opinion and 32% a negative opinion about the EU in Great Britain 32% have a positive and 47% a negative opinion about the EU. And on the question of how good the EU is for the local economy in the EU and on average 50% answer with rather good and 42% with bad while in Great Britain only 45% answered with rather good and 47% with bad. [2]
Member States must then continue to compete with those who have very different labor costs or labor productivity. Then high-wage countries from Western Europe have to compete with the low-wage countries from Eastern and Southeastern Europe. As a result the inferior industries and income classes are threatened to lose their market share to imports. To be for a remain or withdrawal while maintaining these three freedoms could therefore be expected from economic liberal parties. In contrast parties oriented towards the lower and middle income groups should be at least critical.
Access to the single market of the EU and the euro has led to major imbalances. Due to wage restraint, the Euro and the single market of the EU the export share in Germany increased from 21% in 1996 to 39% in 2017. Thus Germany's economy is enormously dependent on exports and particularly prone to international crises or a trade war. And the domestic part of the German economy ist increasingly left behind. [7] [8]
Britain itself also has an export deficit of about 190 billion Euros (223 billion US-Dollar) a year. And with Germany, Great Britain has an export deficit of about 44 billion Euros (51 billion US-Dollar) per year. With membership in the EU Great Britain is also in its free trade zone. If Britain leaves the EU and does not remain part of the free trade zone then trade between the two would no longer be duty-free. Then exports from Germany to Great Britain of about 77 billion euros per year would decrease. And this also explains the non-cooperative attitude of the German Federal Government in the negotiations for Brexit. [9] [10] [11] [12]
The promotion of migration is often seen as "leftist", the aid as "humanistic" and the consequences as "cosmopolitan". All these terms are positively occupied and disguise whose interests are served here. In migration from low-wage countries to high-wage countries, employers and investors profit on a large scale also by supplying the local labor market with cheap workers.
But migration causes more people to compete for limited resources such as jobs, housing and social welfare. In the process, the equilibrium price for work is falling, living space is becoming scarcer and therefore more expensive and the costs of social assistance are rising. Thus companies benefit from lower wages can get lucrative orders for care and employers' organizations can use sentiment through migration to cut social assistance and thus lower the implicit minimum wage. At the same time there is a warning against demographic change, the aging of society and the alleged shortage of skilled workers. The credibility of claiming a shortage of skilled employers is inversely proportional to unemployment and the rise in wage levels.
The EU would agree to a membership of Northern Ireland in the common single market of the EU. For Great Britain however this would be a de facto border within the country and a step that would promote the secession of Northern Ireland. But since the Northern Ireland conflict does not affect the other EU member states one side could simply open the border for citizens from Ireland or Northern Ireland. And Britain could even be less sanctioned by the EU than Ireland after leaving the EU. The threat is therefore more appearance than fact. [13] [14] [15]
Corbyn (Labor) wants Great Britain to remain in the EU's single market and rejects a no-deal scenario where Great Britain falls back on the World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. But by staying in the single market of the EU he accepts the economically liberal free trade in the extremely unequal competition and abandons the criticism of this wage dumping. Great Britain will then continue to compete with the low-wage countries of Eastern and Southeastern Europe. And with the exclusion of a no-deal scenario he abandons the leverage of Great Britain in the negotiations with the EU. He should think twice about both. [16] [17] [18] [19]
With the option of a second referendum Corbyn (Labor) follows his earlier statements and the trend of elections in the EU. Here it has long been established simply to ignore the results or to hold a new election, if the last one has not yielded the desired results. [23] [24] [25] In accordance with local laws the Treaty of Nice which is a treaty within the EU had to be ratified in Ireland by a referendum. However after the Treaty of Nice was rejected on June 7, 2001 a second referendum took place on October 19, 2002 following a comprehensive media campaign. [26,p.68] [26,p.72] [27] [28] The Treaty of Lisbon which is also a treaty within the EU was rejected in 2005 in referendums in France and the Netherlands, however it was then simply signed and implemented. [29] [30] [31] [32] And the Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine was also rejected in a referendum in the Netherlands in 2016. But this had not changed the implementation of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. [33]
[1] OPINIONS ON THE EU
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-election-britain-idUSKCN1SW0Y8
[2] UK ever more polarized as Brexit Party storms to EU vote win 2019-05-27
https://project28.eu/opinions-on-the-eu-2019/
[3] Binnenmarkt 2014-04-01
https://www.bpb.de/internationales/europa/europaeische-union/42855/binnenmarkt
[4] Freihandel EU-Afrika - Die Kunst des unfairen Deals 2017-01-17
http://www.taz.de/!5371866/
[5] EU-Freihandel mit Afrika: Unfairer Deal? 2017-01-11
https://www.dw.com/de/eu-freihandel-mit-afrika-unfairer-deal/a-37073640
[6] EU baut mit Mercosur-Staatenbund weltweit größte Freihandelszone auf 2019-06-28
https://diepresse.com/home/ausland/aussenpolitik/5651889/EU-baut-mit-MercosurStaatenbund-weltweit-groesste-Freihandelszone-auf
[7] Exportanteil/Export Share
https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/Indikatoren/LangeReihen/Aussenhandel/lrahl01.html
[8] Exportüberschuss/Export Surplus https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesamtwirtschaftUmwelt/VGR/Inlandsprodukt/Tabellen/BruttoinlandVierteljahresdaten_xls.html
[9] Where does the United Kingdom export to? (2017)
https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/gbr/show/all/2017/
[10] Where does Germany import from? (2017)
https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/deu/show/all/2017/
[11] Where does the United Kingdom import from? (2017)
https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/gbr/show/all/2017/
[12] Where does Germany export to? (2017)
https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/deu/show/all/2017/
[13] Q&A: The Irish border Brexit backstop 2018-12-13
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-44615404
[14] EUROPE - Brexit: Why is the Irish backstop so controversial? 2019-01-29
https://www.dw.com/en/brexit-why-is-the-irish-backstop-so-controversial/a-47273841
[15] What Is the Irish Backstop, and Why Is It Holding Up Brexit? 2019-01-30
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/30/world/europe/irish-backstop-brexit.html
[16] Corbyn: no talks with May until no-deal Brexit is off table 2019-01-16
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/16/corbyn-no-talks-with-may-until-no-deal-brexit-is-off-table
[17] Corbyn: 'Remove prospect of catastrophe' 2019-01-16
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-politics-46899801/jeremy-corbyn-remove-prospect-of-catastrophe-of-a-no-deal-brexit
[18] Politics - Corbyn Bows to Pressure, Agrees to Back Second EU Referendum 2019-02-25
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-25/corbyn-bows-to-pressure-and-agrees-to-back-new-brexit-referendum
[19] UK's Jeremy Corbyn: Risk of no-deal Brexit 'very serious' 2019-02-21
https://www.dw.com/en/uks-jeremy-corbyn-risk-of-no-deal-brexit-very-serious/a-47618553
[20] Labour: Corbyn wins party backing in crunch Brexit vote 2019-09-23
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49789938
[21] Corbyn gets Labour support for disputed Brexit strategy 2019-09-23
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-labour/corbyn-gets-labour-support-for-disputed-brexit-strategy-idUKKBN1W80J8
[22] In win for Corbyn, UK's Labour opts to stay neutral on Brexit 2019-09-23
https://www.france24.com/en/20190923-uk-labour-corbyn-conference-brexit-vote-remain-referendum
[23] Labour MPs warn Corbyn: back a second referendum or we quit 2019-02-13
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/13/labour-mp-submits-plan-for-referendum-on-brexit-deal
[24] Jeremy Corbyn, Under Pressure From His Labour Party, Backs New Brexit Vote 2019-02-25
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/25/world/europe/Jeremy-Corbyn-brexit-referendum.html
[25] Europe - Jeremy Corbyn says Labour would back a second Brexit referendum 2019-02-25
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/jeremy-corbyn-says-labour-would-back-a-second-brexit-referendum/2019/02/25/ea765b14-392e-11e9-b10b-f05a22e75865_story.html
[26] REFERENDUM RESULTS 1937 – 2015
https://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/migrated-files/en/Publications/LocalGovernment/Voting/referendum_results_1937-2015.pdf
[27] Ireland rejects Nice treaty 2001-06-08
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jun/08/eu.politics
[28] Ireland says yes to Nice treaty 2002-10-21
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ireland/1410856/Ireland-says-yes-to-Nice-treaty.html
[29] Référendum du 29 mai 2005 2005-05-29
https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Elections/Les-resultats/Referendums/elecresult__referendum_2005/(path)/referendum_2005/000/000.html
[30] When France 'ignored' the result of an EU referendum 2016-07-28
https://www.thelocal.fr/20160628/brexit-rethink-a-look-at-frances-2005-eu-referendum
[31] EUROPE - Ignoring the Public, French Parliament Approves EU Treaty 2008-02-08
https://www.dw.com/en/ignoring-the-public-french-parliament-approves-eu-treaty/a-3114579
[32] The Lisbon Treaty - questions and answers 2008-06-13
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/2123697/EU-Referendum-The-Lisbon-Treaty-questions-and-answers.html
[33] Dutch referendum voters overwhelmingly reject closer EU links to Ukraine 2016-04-07
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/06/dutch-voters-reject-closer-eu-links-to-ukraine-in-referendum
How much Brexit is still desired is shown by the elections and polls since the referendum. In the election to the EU parliament in Great Britain the Brexit party of the same name by the former UKIP leader Nigel Farage was elected with 30.5% as the strongest party. [1] Particularly in surveys Great Britain is repeatedly shows a skeptical or even negative attitude towards the EU. While the average within the EU 45% have a positive opinion and 32% a negative opinion about the EU in Great Britain 32% have a positive and 47% a negative opinion about the EU. And on the question of how good the EU is for the local economy in the EU and on average 50% answer with rather good and 42% with bad while in Great Britain only 45% answered with rather good and 47% with bad. [2]
The Freedoms
The EU's internal market is based on the three freedoms, free movement of capital, labor, goods and services. But the membership in the EU's internal market also allows for a liberal economic free trade within the extremely unequal competition and criticizes wage dumping. This single market of the EU is still praised by many. With the free movement trade has become easier for everyone. [3]Member States must then continue to compete with those who have very different labor costs or labor productivity. Then high-wage countries from Western Europe have to compete with the low-wage countries from Eastern and Southeastern Europe. As a result the inferior industries and income classes are threatened to lose their market share to imports. To be for a remain or withdrawal while maintaining these three freedoms could therefore be expected from economic liberal parties. In contrast parties oriented towards the lower and middle income groups should be at least critical.
The Economic Consequences
The EU is expanding free trade with inferior economies. This means that African and South American low-wage countries and high-wage countries from the EU must compete. As a result the inferior industries and income classes are threatened to lose their market share to imports and an unbalanced foreign trade balance. The export surpluses displace additional jobs in countries with export deficits. Since the local economy is replaced by imports. Trade with EU member states would still be possible after leaving but with the possibility of protecting the own economy. [4] [5] [6]Access to the single market of the EU and the euro has led to major imbalances. Due to wage restraint, the Euro and the single market of the EU the export share in Germany increased from 21% in 1996 to 39% in 2017. Thus Germany's economy is enormously dependent on exports and particularly prone to international crises or a trade war. And the domestic part of the German economy ist increasingly left behind. [7] [8]
Britain itself also has an export deficit of about 190 billion Euros (223 billion US-Dollar) a year. And with Germany, Great Britain has an export deficit of about 44 billion Euros (51 billion US-Dollar) per year. With membership in the EU Great Britain is also in its free trade zone. If Britain leaves the EU and does not remain part of the free trade zone then trade between the two would no longer be duty-free. Then exports from Germany to Great Britain of about 77 billion euros per year would decrease. And this also explains the non-cooperative attitude of the German Federal Government in the negotiations for Brexit. [9] [10] [11] [12]
The promotion of migration is often seen as "leftist", the aid as "humanistic" and the consequences as "cosmopolitan". All these terms are positively occupied and disguise whose interests are served here. In migration from low-wage countries to high-wage countries, employers and investors profit on a large scale also by supplying the local labor market with cheap workers.
But migration causes more people to compete for limited resources such as jobs, housing and social welfare. In the process, the equilibrium price for work is falling, living space is becoming scarcer and therefore more expensive and the costs of social assistance are rising. Thus companies benefit from lower wages can get lucrative orders for care and employers' organizations can use sentiment through migration to cut social assistance and thus lower the implicit minimum wage. At the same time there is a warning against demographic change, the aging of society and the alleged shortage of skilled workers. The credibility of claiming a shortage of skilled employers is inversely proportional to unemployment and the rise in wage levels.
Irish Backstop
In addition, the future on the Irish border remains unclear. While the Republic of Ireland remains a sovereign state and will remain in the EU independent of the outcome of Brexit Northern Ireland remains part of Great Britain. With the "Good Friday Agreement/Belfast Agreement" between the Republic of Ireland and Great Britain the Northern Ireland conflict de facto ended. An essential part of the "Good Friday Agreement/Belfast Agreement" is avoiding a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. And to prevent a new conflict Great Britain agreed to the Irish backstop. This should avoid a conflict should an all-encompassing agreement not be reached. But both sides have not yet agreed on clear terms. Therefore it is not yet clear how exactly the "Irish Backstop" will turn out. [13] [14] [15]The EU would agree to a membership of Northern Ireland in the common single market of the EU. For Great Britain however this would be a de facto border within the country and a step that would promote the secession of Northern Ireland. But since the Northern Ireland conflict does not affect the other EU member states one side could simply open the border for citizens from Ireland or Northern Ireland. And Britain could even be less sanctioned by the EU than Ireland after leaving the EU. The threat is therefore more appearance than fact. [13] [14] [15]
The Democratorship of Elections
For the withdrawal of Britain from the EU the government is seeking an agreement on the future relationship with the EU. If the Government fails to negotiate a proposal with the EU and fails to ratify it in parliament the future relationship with the EU will be governed by the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO). So far however every proposal has been rejected by parliament. However the case that Britain leaves the EU without an agreement is its bargaining chip. And since countries such as Germany have an export surplus and Britain has an import surplus Britain is in a better starting position here as well.Corbyn (Labor) wants Great Britain to remain in the EU's single market and rejects a no-deal scenario where Great Britain falls back on the World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. But by staying in the single market of the EU he accepts the economically liberal free trade in the extremely unequal competition and abandons the criticism of this wage dumping. Great Britain will then continue to compete with the low-wage countries of Eastern and Southeastern Europe. And with the exclusion of a no-deal scenario he abandons the leverage of Great Britain in the negotiations with the EU. He should think twice about both. [16] [17] [18] [19]
The government must remove clearly once and for all the catastrophe of a no-deal exit from the European Union and all the chaos that would result from that.In addition Labor has agreed at its party congress in September 2019 on a course for Brexit. According to this Labour wants to win the next parliamentary elections, renegotiate the agreement with the EU and hold a special conference on the further course. Overall they have agreed to either leave the EU with a corresponding deal or hold a second referendum. [20] [21] [22] But to insist that Great Britain either remains in the EU or continues to abide by the rules for staying in the EU could turn out to be the worse choice for Labor. On the one hand Labor thus accepts liberal economic free trade in the extremely unequal competition. On the other hand in Great Britain there is still a majority for leaving the EU with 49% versus 47%. And with the intention of ignoring an election result and simply having it re-elected until the desired outcome is achieved reveals a worrying understanding of democracy. [2]
Jeremy Corbyn (Labour), 16. Januar 2019 [16] [17]
One way or another, we will do everything in our power to prevent no-deal and oppose a damaging Tory Brexit based on Theresa May’s overwhelmingly rejected deal.
Jeremy Corbyn (Labour), 25. Februar 2019 [18]
With the option of a second referendum Corbyn (Labor) follows his earlier statements and the trend of elections in the EU. Here it has long been established simply to ignore the results or to hold a new election, if the last one has not yielded the desired results. [23] [24] [25] In accordance with local laws the Treaty of Nice which is a treaty within the EU had to be ratified in Ireland by a referendum. However after the Treaty of Nice was rejected on June 7, 2001 a second referendum took place on October 19, 2002 following a comprehensive media campaign. [26,p.68] [26,p.72] [27] [28] The Treaty of Lisbon which is also a treaty within the EU was rejected in 2005 in referendums in France and the Netherlands, however it was then simply signed and implemented. [29] [30] [31] [32] And the Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine was also rejected in a referendum in the Netherlands in 2016. But this had not changed the implementation of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. [33]
[1] OPINIONS ON THE EU
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-election-britain-idUSKCN1SW0Y8
[2] UK ever more polarized as Brexit Party storms to EU vote win 2019-05-27
https://project28.eu/opinions-on-the-eu-2019/
[3] Binnenmarkt 2014-04-01
https://www.bpb.de/internationales/europa/europaeische-union/42855/binnenmarkt
[4] Freihandel EU-Afrika - Die Kunst des unfairen Deals 2017-01-17
http://www.taz.de/!5371866/
[5] EU-Freihandel mit Afrika: Unfairer Deal? 2017-01-11
https://www.dw.com/de/eu-freihandel-mit-afrika-unfairer-deal/a-37073640
[6] EU baut mit Mercosur-Staatenbund weltweit größte Freihandelszone auf 2019-06-28
https://diepresse.com/home/ausland/aussenpolitik/5651889/EU-baut-mit-MercosurStaatenbund-weltweit-groesste-Freihandelszone-auf
[7] Exportanteil/Export Share
https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/Indikatoren/LangeReihen/Aussenhandel/lrahl01.html
[8] Exportüberschuss/Export Surplus https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesamtwirtschaftUmwelt/VGR/Inlandsprodukt/Tabellen/BruttoinlandVierteljahresdaten_xls.html
[9] Where does the United Kingdom export to? (2017)
https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/gbr/show/all/2017/
[10] Where does Germany import from? (2017)
https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/deu/show/all/2017/
[11] Where does the United Kingdom import from? (2017)
https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/gbr/show/all/2017/
[12] Where does Germany export to? (2017)
https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/deu/show/all/2017/
[13] Q&A: The Irish border Brexit backstop 2018-12-13
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-44615404
[14] EUROPE - Brexit: Why is the Irish backstop so controversial? 2019-01-29
https://www.dw.com/en/brexit-why-is-the-irish-backstop-so-controversial/a-47273841
[15] What Is the Irish Backstop, and Why Is It Holding Up Brexit? 2019-01-30
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/30/world/europe/irish-backstop-brexit.html
[16] Corbyn: no talks with May until no-deal Brexit is off table 2019-01-16
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/16/corbyn-no-talks-with-may-until-no-deal-brexit-is-off-table
[17] Corbyn: 'Remove prospect of catastrophe' 2019-01-16
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-politics-46899801/jeremy-corbyn-remove-prospect-of-catastrophe-of-a-no-deal-brexit
[18] Politics - Corbyn Bows to Pressure, Agrees to Back Second EU Referendum 2019-02-25
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-25/corbyn-bows-to-pressure-and-agrees-to-back-new-brexit-referendum
[19] UK's Jeremy Corbyn: Risk of no-deal Brexit 'very serious' 2019-02-21
https://www.dw.com/en/uks-jeremy-corbyn-risk-of-no-deal-brexit-very-serious/a-47618553
[20] Labour: Corbyn wins party backing in crunch Brexit vote 2019-09-23
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49789938
[21] Corbyn gets Labour support for disputed Brexit strategy 2019-09-23
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-labour/corbyn-gets-labour-support-for-disputed-brexit-strategy-idUKKBN1W80J8
[22] In win for Corbyn, UK's Labour opts to stay neutral on Brexit 2019-09-23
https://www.france24.com/en/20190923-uk-labour-corbyn-conference-brexit-vote-remain-referendum
[23] Labour MPs warn Corbyn: back a second referendum or we quit 2019-02-13
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/13/labour-mp-submits-plan-for-referendum-on-brexit-deal
[24] Jeremy Corbyn, Under Pressure From His Labour Party, Backs New Brexit Vote 2019-02-25
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/25/world/europe/Jeremy-Corbyn-brexit-referendum.html
[25] Europe - Jeremy Corbyn says Labour would back a second Brexit referendum 2019-02-25
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/jeremy-corbyn-says-labour-would-back-a-second-brexit-referendum/2019/02/25/ea765b14-392e-11e9-b10b-f05a22e75865_story.html
[26] REFERENDUM RESULTS 1937 – 2015
https://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/migrated-files/en/Publications/LocalGovernment/Voting/referendum_results_1937-2015.pdf
[27] Ireland rejects Nice treaty 2001-06-08
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jun/08/eu.politics
[28] Ireland says yes to Nice treaty 2002-10-21
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ireland/1410856/Ireland-says-yes-to-Nice-treaty.html
[29] Référendum du 29 mai 2005 2005-05-29
https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Elections/Les-resultats/Referendums/elecresult__referendum_2005/(path)/referendum_2005/000/000.html
[30] When France 'ignored' the result of an EU referendum 2016-07-28
https://www.thelocal.fr/20160628/brexit-rethink-a-look-at-frances-2005-eu-referendum
[31] EUROPE - Ignoring the Public, French Parliament Approves EU Treaty 2008-02-08
https://www.dw.com/en/ignoring-the-public-french-parliament-approves-eu-treaty/a-3114579
[32] The Lisbon Treaty - questions and answers 2008-06-13
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/2123697/EU-Referendum-The-Lisbon-Treaty-questions-and-answers.html
[33] Dutch referendum voters overwhelmingly reject closer EU links to Ukraine 2016-04-07
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/06/dutch-voters-reject-closer-eu-links-to-ukraine-in-referendum
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