[Economics] The Migration Business - demographic change 2019-04-06

1. The Ressources
2. The Alternatives

The promotion of migration is often seen as "leftist", the aid as "humanistic" and the consequences as "cosmopolitan". All these terms are positively occupied and disguise whose interests are served here. It is about supplying the local labor market with cheap workers. In migration from low-wage countries to high-wage countries, employers and investors profit on a large scale. Thus labor migration from low-wage countries to high-wage countries deserves criticism like recently with study of the Bertelsmann-Foundation that is close to employers. [1] [2] [3] [3,pdf]

But migration causes more people to compete for limited resources such as jobs, housing and social welfare. In the process, the equilibrium price for work is falling, living space is becoming scarcer and therefore more expensive and the costs of social assistance are rising. Thus companies benefit from lower wages can get lucrative orders for care and employers' organizations can use sentiment through migration to cut social assistance and thus lower the implicit minimum wage.

Meanwhile the left and employers' organizations seem to have agreed on a joint program. But this way the left has degraded itself programmatically. While employers' organizations demand immigration leftists are make do with managing the resulting society. And instead of fighting for higher incomes and a better standard of living they complement the demands of employers' organizations. See also:
[Commentary] The left is looking for a replacement proletariat [4] [5] [6] [7]

A special role is played by the threat that demographic change endangers prosperity. On the one hand it is peculiar to complain that the increased standard of living in a country allows people to grow older than in previous generations. And complaints about a supposedly low birth rate only make sense if shown that they are not compensated by the steadily rising labor productivity. Because constant modernization requires fewer and fewer employees to provide the same amount of goods and services.

However the demand for migration due to demographic change has a different purpose. Not least because of the European Union nation states with their own economies have been transformed into a transnational economy with competing locations. After all as a result of free trade in the EU's common market high-wage countries such as Germany compete with low-wage countries such as Romania. And because of the euro monetary union countries have lost the possibility of devaluing their currency to even out their foreign trade balance. This attitude can be clearly seen in the Bertelsmann Foundation's 2019 study.

Annahme 18:
Deutschland hat bei der Umstellung auf eine Wirtschaft 4.0 weltweit eine Vorreiterrolle inne und das Ausland reagiert mit einer Verzögerung von fünf Jahren. Ferner wird angenommen, dass nicht nur in Deutschland die Nachfrage nach neuen Gütern und Dienstleistungen steigt, sondern weltweit und dementsprechend auch die deutschen Exporte ansteigen.

Assumption 18:
Germany is playing a pioneering role worldwide in the transition to an economy 4.0 and foreign countries are reacting with a delay of five years. It is also assumed that the demand for new goods and services will increase not only in Germany but worldwide and accordingly also German exports will increase. [3,p.105]

Employers' associations essentially have their own interest in mind. And the proximity to employers' organizations can be seen in the study of the Bertelsmann Foundation in 2019 on the demand to meet labor migration.

Aus Sicht des Arbeitsmarktes dürfte ein Rückgang des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials verkraftbar sein, solange der Bedarf an Arbeitskräften gedeckt wird, das heißt, solange alle Arbeitsplätze besetzbar sind.

From the point of view of the labor market, a decline in the labor force potential is acceptable as long as the demand for labor is covered that is as long as all jobs can be occupied with workers. [3,p.18]

But when all jobs can be occupied with workers then effectively wage pressure is avoided. And that effectively pushes for a or strengthens a low-wage sector.

The Ressources

How far a demographic change with a falling birth rate can go show Japan and South Korea. Both are industrialized countries with a corresponding standard of living. In Japan in 2018 every woman gave birth to an average of 1.4 children. [8] [9] And in South Korea in 2018 the fertility rate dropped to just 0.95 a child for the first time in the third quarter. [10] [11] In both countries however productivity growth and existing productivity equals falling birth rates.

The Alternatives

Should it again be expected or necessary to increase the birth rate governments can actively work on it. Poland and Hungary have now started such birth programs. The Polish government of the PIS party launched the 500+ program in 2016. Here parents receive 500 Polish zlotys (about 120 Euros 130 US Dollars) per month for a second child. [12] [13] [14] And Hungarian government has adopted a program under Viktor Orban and the Fidesz party. This includes the financial support of families with at least two children when buying houses, vehicles and others. And women under 40 who marry for the first time can receive a substituted loan of 10 million Hungarian forints (about 33,000 Euros or 36,000 US-Dollars). For a second child one-third of the debt can be paid by the state and for a third child the entire amount. [15] [16] [17] [18]


[8] Japans Bevölkerung stirbt langsam aus 2013-06-24
https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article117397916/Japans-Bevoelkerung-stirbt-langsam-aus.html
[9] Hohe Lebenserwartung, kaum Geburten - Alt, älter, Japan 2018-10-25
http://www.spiegel.de/gesundheit/diagnose/japan-und-seine-alten-hohe-lebenserwartung-kaum-geburten-a-1117308.html
[10] Südkorea kämpft gegen sinkende Geburtenrate 2018-12-07
https://www.welt.de/newsticker/news2/article185158620/Erziehung-Suedkorea-kaempft-gegen-sinkende-Geburtenrate.html
[11] Südkorea: Südkorea kämpft gegen sinkende Geburtenrate 2018-12-07
https://www.zeit.de/news/2018-12/07/suedkorea-kaempft-gegen-sinkende-geburtenrate-20181207-doc-1be9x4
[12] Prime Minister Beata Szyd?o: Family 500 plus program success to be owed to Polish families 2016-03-14
https://www.premier.gov.pl/en/news/news/prime-minister-beata-szydlo-family-500-plus-program-success-to-be-owed-to-polish-families.html
[13] Summary of “Family 500+” programme and changes in the government programme 2017-04-04
https://www.premier.gov.pl/en/news/news/summary-of-family-500-programme-and-changes-in-the-government-programme.html
[14] First results of Poland’s Family 500+ programme released 2018-05-16
https://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?langId=en&catId=89&newsId=9104&furtherNews=yes
[15] TOP STORIES - Hungary pays couples who pledge to have babies 2017-02-17
https://www.dw.com/en/hungary-pays-couples-who-pledge-to-have-babies/a-37597165
[16] NEWS - Hungary gives tax breaks to boost population, stop immigration 2019-02-10
https://www.dw.com/en/hungary-gives-tax-breaks-to-boost-population-stop-immigration/a-47449980
[17] Orban offers financial incentives to boost Hungary's birth rate 2019-02-10
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hungary-orban-benefits-idUSKCN1PZ0I0
[18] Orban Encourages Mothers in Hungary to Have 4 or More Babies 2019-02-11
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/11/world/europe/orban-hungary-babies-mothers-population-immigration.html