[Wirtschaft] Milei Zerstörer Argentiniens - Milei Wegbereiter für den IWF
Javier Milei (La Libertad Avanza/LLA) has been President of Argentina since December 10, 2023. As president and supposed revolutionary Milei (LLA) is becoming increasingly popular. Here the previous development of Argentina should serve as a basis for evaluation instead of promises. As a result the essential key figures are compared until he took office with those since taking office. However the result is worse than just sobering.
With GDP as the most prominent essential key figure Argentina in 2024 actually caught up with its own GDP from 2017. With year 2024 being his first full in office GDP recorded with a real growth of 2.5%. However this shows at the same time how little was achieved if only the stand of seven years ago was reached. In addition GDP is stagnating near the level of 2022 especially if you take the growth into account from 2020 to 2022.
[1]In addition industrial production (semi finished products, machines and systems) has literally collapsed since Milei (LLA) took office. This slump is almost as large as in 2020 during pandemic. This decline is particularly devastating because labor productivity increases primarily in industrial production. Future economic growth therefore shrinks by the amount of labor productivity in the industrial production that no longer exists.
[2]Similar to Germany myths and errors are also evident in the Argentine foreign trade record. The current foreign trade surplus is often praised and attributed to Milei (LLA). The reversal of a foreign trade deficit to a foreign trade surplus took place in June 2023 thus before Milei (LLA) took office. In retrospect until 2020 clearly before and without a Milei (LLA) Argentina usually had a foreign trade surplus of up to 2.5% anyway. And even if Argentina would try to achieve growth from abroad with export surpluses then this would be a hopelessly slow undertaking with an export rate of only 8.4% in 2023.
[3] [4] [5]Milei (LLA) is often attributed to have fought inflation. And the inflation rate from 160.9% in November 2023 fell to 117.8% in December 2024. But this means that the inflation rate is still enormous.
In the month of him taking office the inflation rate rose to 211.4%. And in this period the inflation rate also rose to up to 292.2% in April 2024. It is obvious that this is a price shock as a result of the poor economic situation. If production collapses and thus reduces the supply then it can be assumed that prices rise. But since industrial products do not exist in a vacuum but are dependent on other industrial products and the demand from the population the late demand has in turn shrank the inflation rate. Thus the government of Argentina has combated inflation with poverty and recession. [6]
[6]Just as it is now Argentina is also expected that the state makes a surplus and best takes more than it spends. Logic and empiricism are opposed to the expectation that this leads to economic growth. If neither the private household sector nor companies can generate demand in an economy then only the state sector can generate demand. As shown above foreign trade cannot keep up with these sectors quantitatively.
In 2020 during the pandemic the low point for the Argentine GDP is marked at 385.74 USD billion. In fact the budget deficit of 8.5% in 2020 was followed by a reversal of GDP from shrinking to growing. In 2021 the Argentine GDP was at 487.9 billion USD. And in 2022 the Argentine GDP was at 631.13 billion USD. However the budget deficit has been around 3% since 2021. And just as the high budget deficit followed a recovery from GDP a stagnating GDP follows the low budget deficit. [1] [7]
[7]Economic and financial policy should neither have beautiful key figures as well as the interests of companies as an aim, but should increase the prosperity of the population. But the result of this policy for the population of Argentina can be referred to as a disaster. So the unemployment rate has dropped before Milei (LLA) took office and then rose to a new high.
[8]In addition the quota of those affected by poverty has risen dramatically with Milei (LLA). As of 2024 42.5% are affected by poverty. The proportion of poverty has increased by 34% since taking office. This development alone is unique in the observed period and shows exemplary the destructive power of Milei (LLA).
[9]It is therefore not surprising that the consent rate of Milei (LLA) is conversely proportional to the respondent's income. The richest 20% of the population agree with Milei (LLA) by 59% and the second richest 20% agree with Milei (LLA) by 51%. The middle 20% of the population agree to 51%. And the second most poorest 20% of the population agree with Milei (LLA) by 40% and the poorest 20% of the population only agree with Milei (LLA) by 39%. [10]
The friendly handshake of Milei (LLA) with the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva reveals that Argentina has to prepare for a lot worse. [11]
Src:[1] Argentina GDP
https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/gdp
[2] Argentina Industrial Production
https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/industrial-production
[3] Argentinien - Handelsbilanz
https://de.tradingeconomics.com/argentina/balance-of-trade
[4] Argentina Exports
https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/exports
[5] Argentina Imports
https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/imports
[6] Argentina Inflation Rate
https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi
[7] Argentina Government Budget
https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/government-budget
[8] Argentina Unemployment Rate
https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/unemployment-rate
[9] Percentage of urban households under the poverty line in Argentina from 1st half 2018 to 1st half 2024
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1176116/poverty-rate-households-argentina/
[10] Javier Milei's Argentina in 6 Charts 2024-12-10
https://news.gallup.com/poll/654089/javier-milei-argentina-charts.aspx
[11] Kristalina Georgieva - Excellent meeting with President
https://x.com/KGeorgieva/status/1881067165035708658?mx=2
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