[Foreign Policy] What Ukraine's accession to the EU means: German soldiers to the front and economic disaster

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[Außenpolitik] EU-Beitritt der Ukraine bedeutet: Deutsche Soldaten an die Front und wirtschaftliches Desaster Thomas Mayer

Ukraine should be admitted to the EU. That is the declared will of the EU. There is hardly any public discussion about this. Only the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban opposes this and has ordered a referendum in Hungary. Ukraine's accession to the EU would be disastrous militarily, economically and financially.

The EU is conducting official accession talks with Ukraine. Accession is only possible through a unanimous decision by the current 27 member states. This means that a single state can block this accession. Such a blockade is the declared goal of the Hungarian government - ​​a tough fight.

To determine the Hungarian population's views on the issue the Orban government launched the "Voks 2025" (Vote 2025) in March 2025. All eligible voters in Hungary were contacted and could answer the question: "Do you support Ukraine's accession to the European Union?" by returning a ballot. There was no legal basis for this referendum the electoral authorities were not involved and the result is not legally binding. In this respect it was an "ad hoc presidential plebiscite". The distribution of voting materials began on April 15, 2025 and responses had to be received by June 20, 2025.

A total of 2,278,015 valid votes were cast corresponding to a turnout of approximately 29 percent. Of these 95.19 percent voted against Ukraine's accession to the EU while only 4.81 percent voted in favor. The result was therefore very clear. [1]

Victor Orban presented this result at the EU summit in Brussels on June 26, 2025. "My voice has become stronger." According to Orban Ukraine's membership in its current state would be an act of self-destruction for Hungary. "If we were to accept a country at war we would be drawn into a war with Russia," he warned. He also questioned the viability of Ukraine's current borders and government structure claiming that the country's statehood was uncertain in light of the conflict. "We don't even know what will be left of the country," he said. [2]

Other arguments in the public debate in Hungary were important. State Secretary Zoltán Kovács wrote: "Billions are being diverted from Central European development, EU agricultural subsidies are being cut as Ukraine's vast agricultural land is being incorporated into the system and there are threats to public health and increased security risks from organized crime and arms trafficking." [3]

These are clear concerns that are gaining traction in the Ukrainian public. You don't hear anything like this in other EU countries. What should one make of this?

I would like to provide a realistic assessment below. In my book "Searching for Truth in the Ukraine War" I described the actual situation in Ukraine in detail. And on June 5, 2024 the "BSW Group" in the German Bundestag submitted the motion "No opening of EU accession negotiations with Ukraine". This motion was not addressed but was "resolved" by the end of the legislative period. The consequences of Ukraine's accession to the EU would be dramatic. [4] [5]

Soldiers of EU states would have to fight and die in Ukraine

The EU is a military alliance. Few people know this but it has been the case since the Lisbon Treaty of 2009. According to Article 42 paragraph 7 of the Lisbon Treaty member states must provide "all the aid and assistance in their power" to attacked EU countries. Thus the obligation to participate comprehensively in war goes even further in the EU than in NATO. In NATO a "case of alliance" under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty merely requires member states to take measures "which they consider necessary". "Consider necessary" is a soft formulation that leaves everything open to individual states. The Lisbon Treaty is more explicit in this regard. [6] [7]

Following Ukraine's accession to the EU all EU states would be obliged to send troops to Ukraine. Because they would have to provide all the support within their power. This of course includes their own military. This would mean that Germany and all other EU states would enter into open war with the nuclear-armed Russia.

The EU states are of course already engaged in an undeclared war against Russia fully financing, equipping, training, supplying satellite data to the Ukrainian military, secretly co-organizing operations and defining war aims. The EU is an accomplice but allows Ukrainians to fight and die. That would no longer be possible after Ukraine's accession to the EU since then the cemeteries in Germany would have to be expanded as well.

According to the Lisbon Treaty such military operations could be avoided if the EU determined that Ukraine was not a victim but had itself attacked the sovereign Donbas regions and that Russia's entry into the war was thus in accordance with international law in assisting the Donbas regions in their self-defense under Article 51 and the UN Charter. Such an assessment however is too much to ask of EU governments as they have claimed the opposite for years to justify their heavy involvement in the war against Russia.

But if one of their own soldiers were to die the mood in society would change. Therefore it is very unlikely that Ukraine will join the EU before the end of the war.

Billion-Dollar bottomless Pit

The financial impact of Ukraine's accession to the EU would be striking and would largely absorb the EU budget. The EU has ten net contributors Germany with 17 billion, France with 9 billion, Italy with 4.5 billion Euros and 17 net recipients. Poland receives approximately 8 billion Euros from the EU each year, Romania 6 billion and Hungary 4.6 billion Euros. The current net recipients would receive almost nothing after Ukraine's accession to the EU because the billions would have to flow to Ukraine. [8]

"A study by the EU Council estimates the cost of Ukraine's accession to the EU at 186 billion Euros," the BSW writes in its application. "This would far exceed the EU's financial capacity and if necessary, would lead to severe social cuts in the EU and in Germany as a result of corresponding cuts or would have to be offset by massive tax increases."

Ukraine would continue to swallow billions. Because Ukraine's economic prospects are poor. It is in a crumbling state. At the time of its founding in 1991 Ukraine had approximately 52 million inhabitants. Since then the population has shrunk due to emigration and a low birth rate. After the outbreak of the Donbass war in 2014 millions fled and since the beginning of the Ukraine war in 2022 another eight million Ukrainians have fled abroad about a third of them to Russia which many Ukrainians view not as an enemy but as a friend. The territory of the old Ukraine is thus depopulated to fewer than 30 million people. From this one must deduct approximately eight million residents of the four regions of eastern Ukraine that joined Russia in referendums in September 2022. This simply means there is a lack of workers for Ukraine's economic reconstruction after the end of the war. [9]

In addition the war is devouring the working-age population. Military cemeteries are growing rapidly in Ukraine. There is much evidence that up to one million Ukrainian soldiers died or were disabled at the front. Yet the true figures are being concealed from the public. [10,a] [10,b]

The conservative British newspaper "The Spectator" published a sober analysis on July 18, 2025. Ukraine is facing a critical military, political and social crisis that threatens to destroy the country from within. 70 percent of Ukrainians believe their leadership is using the war for personal gains. Corruption is undermining morale. 40 percent of the working-age population has left the country. Inflation is rampant. Nine million live below the poverty line. [11]

The international financial community also now has a bleak outlook for Ukraine's future. Blackrock, the world's largest asset manager wanted to raise billions from international investors for a Ukraine reconstruction fund. But "due to a lack of interest" Blackrock closed the fund in July 2025 reported by the Berliner Zeitung. The World Bank even estimated the total cost of reconstructing Ukraine after the war at more than 500 billion US-Dollar. Where will the money come from? [12]

Ukraine is already largely financed by foreign funds. Kyiv's 2023 state budget envisaged tax revenues of approximately 30 billion Euro. Expenditures were twice as high at 60 billion Euro. EU member states poured approximately 100 billion Euro into Ukraine between 2022 and 2024. This means that about half of Ukraine's state spending was financed by EU member states! Ukraine is completely dependent on the EU and is not viable on its own. [13] [14]

One thing is certain: After joining the EU Ukraine would continue to swallow such sums for a long time at the expense of the other EU members.

Russia is responsible for the reconstruction of the eastern Ukrainian regions that have become part of Russia. For example the rapid reconstruction of the port city of Mariupol which was heavily damaged during the war is very impressive. Russia has set itself very ambitious reconstruction goals and can finance them as in 2024 Russia had the lowest national debt of the major industrialized and emerging economies at just 20.3 percent of its gross domestic product. [15]

Low-Wage country would destroy Livelihoods in the EU

An organic-frinedly farmer and friend of mine told me last year about his existential worries. He saw his business at risk sales had plummeted and cheap Ukrainian goods flooded the market in his segment. It's to be feared that after Ukraine joins the EU and a customs union is established we will hear many more stories like this.

To understand this problem you have to know that Ukraine is the poorhouse of Europe. The gross domestic product per capita in 2023 was about 5,000 US-Dollar per year, in Germany it was over 50,000 US-Dollar thus ten times as much. That's the average but a large proportion of Ukrainians live on less than 100 US-Dollar per month. If Ukraine joins the EU these income differences would collide unchecked. In Ukraine agricultural corporations have bought up large tracts of fertile farmland labor is cheap and exports to the EU are therefore lucrative. This is precisely what would cost the livelihoods of many farmers and companies in EU countries who have to bear ten times the labor costs. Those calling for Ukraine to join the EU are de facto seeking the destruction of their own agriculture. [16]

A common economic and customs area requires conditions that are somewhat compatible. The gap between the EU and Ukraine is too wide. Incomes in Ukraine are at the level of El Salvador or Namibia. In Bulgaria the poorest country in the EU the gross domestic product per capita was about 15,000 US-Dollar in 2023 which is still three times that of Ukraine. A floodgate should only be opened when the water level is balanced.

Because of this large gap Ukraine is also advised against joining the EU. Despite low incomes it is possible to live comfortably in Ukraine as many prices are lower than in the EU. Experience shows however that countries with lower price levels that joined the EU experienced an adjustment to the higher price levels of the existing member states. Everything is getting more expensive but incomes are not growing as quickly, people have less money, they are becoming impoverished and destitute. The same would happen to Ukraine.

Ukraine's accession to the EU would therefore oblige EU states to send their own soldiers to the front lines in Ukraine and enter into open war with Russia with all the horrific consequences that this entails. It would also be an economic disaster. The immense costs of Ukraine's EU integration would engulf the EU budget leaving nothing for the current net recipient states. Due to Ukraine's depopulation, economic development is difficult due to a lack of labor and the country will be dependent on the EU for a long time. The tenfold income gap between Ukraine and Germany would drive many farms and companies into ruin in the event of a customs union. On the other hand large segments of the population in Ukraine would become impoverished due to price adjustments to the EU. Hungary's opposition to Ukraine's accession to the EU is very reasonable.

Src:
[1] Artikel zum Verlauf der Volksbefragung findet man hier: https://abouthungary.hu/tags/voks-2025
https://www.sudd.ch/event.php?lang=de&id=hu012025
[2]
https://kormany.hu/hirek/a-voks-2025-szavazok-95-szazaleka-elutasitotta-ukrajna-csatlakozasat
[3]
https://abouthungary.hu/blog/while-tisza-claimed-to-speak-for-hungary-voks-2025-listens
[4]
https://www.bundestag.de/presse/hib/kurzmeldungen-1007460
[5]
https://dip.bundestag.de/vorgang/keine-er%C3%B6ffnung-von-eu-beitrittsverhandlungen-mit-der-ukraine/312613?f.wahlperiode=20&f.herausgeber_dokumentart=Bundestag-Drucksache&f.vorgangstyp_p=01Antr%C3%A4ge&start=275&rows=25&pos=276&ctx=a
[6]
https://dejure.org/gesetze/EUV/42.html
[7]
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm?selectedLocale=de
[8]
https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/zahlen-und-fakten/europa/70580/nettozahler-und-nettoempfaenger-in-der-eu/
[9] Thomas Mayer, Wahrheitssuche im Ukraine-Krieg, S. 47 f.
[10] Hier zwei Quellen zu den ukrainischen Toten, Vermissten und Verletzten, die tatsächliche Anzahl ist höher, weshalb von bis zu einer Million Toten und Verletzten ausgegangen werden kann.
https://ualosses.org/en/soldiers/
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy-announces-its-total-military-casualties-first-time/
[11] https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ukrainians-have-lost-faith-in-zelensky/ "> https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ukrainians-have-lost-faith-in-zelensky/
[12] https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/geopolitik/schock-vor-ukraine-wiederaufbaukonferenz-blackrock-stoppt-investorensuche-li.2338954 "> https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/geopolitik/schock-vor-ukraine-wiederaufbaukonferenz-blackrock-stoppt-investorensuche-li.2338954
[13] Thomas Mayer, Wahrheitssuche im Ukraine-Krieg, S. 460 f.
[14]
https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1303434/umfrage/bilaterale-unterstuetzung-fuer-die-ukraine-im-ukraine-krieg/
[15] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/37070/umfrage/bruttostaatsverschuldung-ausgewaehlter-laender-in-anteil-am-bruttoinlandsprodukt/ "> https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/37070/umfrage/bruttostaatsverschuldung-ausgewaehlter-laender-in-anteil-am-bruttoinlandsprodukt/
[16] https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_der_L%C3%A4nder_nach_Bruttonationaleinkommen_pro_Kopf#cite_note-2 "> https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_der_L%C3%A4nder_nach_Bruttonationaleinkommen_pro_Kopf#cite_note-2