[Außenpolitik] Welchen Weg nach Persien - Lagebeurteilung der Luftangriffe auf den Iran
The mutual attacks by Israel, Iran, and the United States initiated by Israel are already called the 12-Day-War. At first glance, the attacks appear random and chaotic. A closer look however reveals that the fighting fits into a larger picture. Unfortunately this larger picture includes a larger war with Iran.
Rising Lion - Development of Israeli Air Strikes from June 13, 2025
On June 13, 2025 Israeli air forces and infiltrated ground forces carried out strikes against various targets in Iran (Operation Rising Lion). These attacks specifically targeted air defense systems, ground-based aircraft, parts of the Iranian nuclear program and commanders. Among the commanders attacked and killed were both those of the regular Iranian armed forces and those of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. And related to the Iranian nuclear program Isfahan (a research facility), Natanz, and Fordow (both enrichment facilities) were attacked. [1] [2] [3]
Iran subsequently carried out retaliatory attacks against Israel. The Iranian armed forces have used at least medium-range missiles and drones for this purpose. Although there are reports of the use of hypersonic missiles their use and effectiveness remains currently uncertain. The impact of the Iranian attacks on Israel, or the penetration of Israeli missile and air defense systems cannot be assessed with certainty either. Hezbollah in Lebanon was not involved in these hostilities. The hostilities are already being referred to as the 12-Day-War. [4] [5]
The Israeli government justified its attack with the threat posed by Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program. While no country has to wait until an attack to defend itself it may only attack if the threat is concrete and verifiable. However the Israeli government has not provided any evidence and on June 12, 2025 the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) merely criticized Iran's cooperation but did not suspect or prove the existence of nuclear weapons. Furthermore under international law nuclear facilities may not be attacked even if they are military objectives "if such an attack could release dangerous forces and thereby cause heavy casualties among the civilian population." Thus Israel's attack on Iran violated international law in several respects. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) condemned the attack on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 13, 2025. [6] [7] [8] [9]
The attack by the Israeli armed forces could be interpreted as evidence of the Israeli armed forces' superiority in their approach.
But the Israeli armed forces are significantly superior to the Iranian ones in terms of technology and logistics.
For example Israel used American fifth-generation fighter jets (F-35s).
In contrast Iran has been sanctioned since 1979 and no longer receives modern weapons or technology from the West making it inevitably inferior.
The attack by the Israeli air force could also be interpreted as evidence of the superiority of Israeli weapons systems (F-35s) over comparable ones.
However Iran does not have fighter jets or air defense systems that are at least up-to-date with or even capable of duelling Israeli weapons systems.
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action/JCPOA - Agreement on the Iranian Nuclear Program
Although an agreement on the Iranian nuclear deal was concluded in 2016 with Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (United States of America, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom) as well as Germany this agreement has de facto failed. This Iranian nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action/JCPOA) was intended to direct Iran's nuclear program towards civilian energy supply and prevent a nuclear weapons program. The United States unilaterally withdrew from this nuclear deal during President Donald Trump's (R) first term because the deal did not include a regular termination clause. In his second term President Trump (R) began negotiations on a new nuclear deal with Iran. [10] [11]
In addition US intelligence agencies have repeatedly cast doubt on the existence of an Iranian nuclear weapons program. In March 2025 the annual US intelligence report confirmed that Iran is not building nuclear weapons. And in June 2025 during the Israeli Defense Forces' Operation "Rising Lion" and the American Forces' Operation "Midnight Hammer" reports emerged that cast doubt on the Israeli claims. [12] [13] [14]
We continue to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003, though pressure has probably built on him to do so.
2025 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community [12, p.26]
Midnight Hammer - Development of American Air Strikes from June 22, 2025
In response to the fighting Trump (R) announced on June 19, that he would make a decision on intervention within two weeks. On June 22, however US Air Force strategic bombers again attacked Iranian nuclear facilities in Isfahan (a research facility), Natanz and Fordow (both enrichment facilities) (Operation Midnight Hammer). Iran subsequently carried out retaliatory attacks against a US base in Qatar. The Iranian armed forces again used medium-range missiles for this purpose. [1] [15] [16] [17]
In addition the Iranian parliament decided on June 22, to block the Strait of Hormuz. 20 to 30% of the world's oil shipments and approximately 20 to 30% of the world's liquefied natural gas trade flow through the strait between the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. Furthermore there is still insufficient pipeline capacity to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. A global energy price shock would be inevitable. But the Iranian leader as commander-in-chief of the Iranian armed forces did not order this blockade. [18] [19] [20] [21]
In general the attacks between the US and Iran appear to have been coordinated. For one thing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has not detected any increased radiation levels outside the facilities as a result of the attacks in Iran. Even if bombing nuclear facilities isn't nearly the same as dropping an atomic bomb the question arises as to whether there was any uranium in the facilities at all. [22] And the US appears to have no knowledge of the whereabouts of the Iranian uranium. [23] Trump (R) thanked the Iranian government for the advance warning of the counterattack. And thanks to the missile defenses in Qatar the Iranian attack is said to have had no effect in Qatar and no one was injured. [24] This makes this incident similar to the assassination attempt on Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in 2020. At that time US forces carried out a successful assassination attempt on Soleimani. And Iran subsequently carried out retaliatory attacks against a US base in Iraq. However since the US forces received advance warning no one was injured. [25]
On June 25, Trump (R) announced a ceasefire between all three countries. How long this ceasefire will last is unclear. It should be noted that Israel has repeatedly violated the ceasefire in Gaza. [26] [27] [28]
Intention of the Attacking State
The Israeli government's intention behind the first strike (Operation Rising Lion) on June 13, 2025 remains unclear. The simplest explanation would be a misjudgment of the situation on Israel's part. However this would not address the long-term perspective as the airstrikes carried out can only shape conditions. Airstrikes cannot take territory or occupy nuclear facilities. In the worst case scenario Israeli forces would have to repeatedly attack once Iranian resources have been replenished.
A possible answer to future developments is provided by the Brookings Institute's 2009 strategy paper "WHICH PATH TO PERSIA?". It describes options for action with and without hostilities on how the US should deal with an Iran that it sees as antagonistic. Part I describes the diplomatic options:
- 1. Containing Iran through diplomatic means and offers
- 2. Persuading Iran through political and economic pressure
- 3. Immediate ground offensive
- 4. Immediate air strikes followed by a ground offensive
- 5. Israeli air strikes followed by American air strikes and a ground offensive
- 6. Popular support for a coup
- 7. Support for minorities and opposition groups
- 8. Support for an armed coup
While the US under Trump (R) violated international law with its attack (Operation Midnight Hammer) just as Israel did (Operation Rising Lion) the seemingly orchestrated symbolic attacks between the US and Iran indicate that Trump (R) is at least for now unwilling to follow the above-mentioned scenarios.
Iranian Nuclear Weapons - The Future of Iran
It is unclear what consequences the Iranian government will take. However it has already announced that it will no longer cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Future developments will therefore be determined by further uncertainty. [30]
Ultimately the Iranian government is left with only three options. Continue not to pursue nuclear weapons but thus lack a corresponding deterrent. Pursue nuclear weapons and before revealing this aspiration experience maximum pressure until nuclear weapons are achieved. Or acquire nuclear weapons secretly and as quickly as possible.
Src:
[1] Visualizing US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran and retaliation in maps 2025-06-21
https://edition.cnn.com/world/middleeast/maps-israel-iran-strikes-charts-invs-dg
[2] Israel meldet Tötung von fast gesamter Führung von Luftstreitkräften 2025-06-13
https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2025-06/hossein-salami-oberbefehlshaber-revolutionsgarden-iran-israel-revanche-ankuendigung
[3] Nach dem Angriff Israels - Welche Atomanlagen hat der Iran? Welche Schäden gab es? 2025-06-13
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/israel-israel-angriff-atomanlagen-100.html
[4] How has Iran managed to pierce through Israel’s air defence systems? 2025-06-18
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/18/how-has-iran-managed-to-pierce-through-israels-air-defence-systems
[5] All About Fattah-1, Iran's Hypersonic Missile Fired At Israel 2025-06-18
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/all-about-fattah-1-irans-hypersonic-missile-fired-at-israel-8697231
[6] NPT Safeguards Agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran 2025-06-12
https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-38.pdf
[7] Angriffe Israels und des Iran - Was erlaubt das Völkerrecht - und was nicht? 2025-06-17
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/iran-israel-voelkerrecht-100.html
[8] Krieg gegen Iran - US-Angriff auf Atomanlagen - was sagt das Völkerrecht? 2025-06-22
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/us-angriff-voelkerrecht-100.html
[9] Statement on the Situation in Iran
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/statements/statement-on-the-situation-in-iran-13-june-2025
[10] Entscheidung von Trump - USA kündigen Iran-Atomabkommen 2018-05-08
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/iran-deal-usa-101.html
[11] Atomprogramm : Direkte Verhandlungen zwischen USA und Iran 2025-04-08
https://www.zdfheute.de/politik/ausland/trump-usa-iran-atomprogramm-gespraeche-100.html
[12] 2025 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community 2025-03
https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2025-Unclassified-Report.pdf
[13] Atombombe noch weit entfernt - US-Geheimdienste bezweifeln Israels Angriffsbegründung auf Iran 2025-06-17
https://www.n-tv.de/politik/US-Geheimdienste-bezweifeln-Israels-Angriffsbegruendung-auf-Iran-article25839397.html
[14] Exclusive: Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say 2025-06-25
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/intel-assessment-us-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites
[15] Trump to make a decision on Iran within two weeks 2025-06-19
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/19/trump-to-make-a-decision-on-iran-within-two-weeks-00414441
[16] A look at Al Udeid Air Base, the US military site that Iran attacked 2025-06-23
https://apnews.com/article/al-udeid-air-base-military-qatar-iran-501e9e64e80480ef3aa4ee43c1243235
[17] Vergeltungsschlag auf US-Basis: "Frühzeitig informiert": Trump dankt Iran 2025-06-23
https://www.zdfheute.de/politik/ausland/iran-angriff-us-stuetzpunkt-katar-israel-nahost-100.html
[18] Iran's Parliament Votes to Close Strait of Hormuz After US Attacks 2025-06-22
https://www.newsweek.com/iran-parliament-vote-close-straits-hormuz-us-attacks-2088968
[19] What is the Strait of Hormuz, and could Iran block it? 2025-06-23
https://www.dw.com/en/hormuz-strait-iran-israel-war-global-oil-supplies-persian-gulf-china-v2/a-72952336
[20] Iran droht mit Seeweg-Sperrung : Warum die Hormus-Route wichtig für den Handel ist 2025-06-23
https://www.zdfheute.de/politik/ausland/israel-nahost-iran-hormus-blockade-folgen-100.html
[21] Auswirkungen des Iran-Israel-Kriegs: Das droht, wenn Iran die Straße von Hormus blockiert 2025-06-25
https://www.merkur.de/politik/auswirkungen-des-iran-israel-kriegs-das-droht-wenn-iran-die-strasse-von-hormus-blockiert-93796890.html
[22] Entwarnung von Atomenergiebehörde : IAEA: Keine erhöhten Strahlenwerte in Iran 2025-06-22
https://www.zdfheute.de/politik/ausland/iran-atomanlagen-strahlung-israel-nahost-100.html
[23] Israel-Iran-Krieg - Unklarheit über angereichertes Uran 2025-06-23
https://orf.at/stories/3397494/
[24] Vergeltungsschlag auf US-Basis : "Frühzeitig informiert": Trump dankt Iran 2025-06-23
https://www.zdfheute.de/politik/ausland/iran-angriff-us-stuetzpunkt-katar-israel-nahost-100.html
[25] Iran macht Drohungen wahr und feuert Raketen auf US-Stützpunkte im Irak ab 2020-01-08
https://www.businessinsider.de/politik/iran-macht-drohungen-wahr-und-feuert-raketen-auf-us-stuetzpunkte-im-irak-ab/
[26] A whirlwind 48 hours: How Trump’s Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement came together 2025-06-25
https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-israel-ceasefire-agreement-terms-b5fc5cc8a8c32b4899646130b496798a
[27] Why has the Gaza ceasefire come to an end? 2023-12-01
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67589259
[28] Why did Netanyahu end the Gaza ceasefire? 2025-03-18
https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-ceasefire-hostages-netanyahu-ff48f081b069e484955a72bc68261364
[29] WHICH PATH TO PERSIA? - Options for a New American Strategy toward Iran 2009-06-20
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/06_iran_strategy.pdf
[30] Iran will Zusammenarbeit mit Atomenergieagentur aussetzen 2025-06-25
https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticker/liveblog-nahost-mittwoch-270.html#Zusammenarbeit
Kommentare
Kommentar veröffentlichen