In March 2024 a conversation between officers and generals from the German Bundeswehr was leaked. In the conversation from February 19, 2024 it was discussed how the German Bundeswehr's Taurus cruise missile could be made available to the Ukraine. What is striking about the reporting and assessment of this conversation is that no one talks about the obvious lack of perspective for the Ukraine. [1]
Germany is already a Participant to the Conflict
A significant point in the conversation is whether or not and how Germany would be a party to the conflict, if the cruise missile were delivered. The intention of the consideration is not to allow Germany to become a party to the conflict under international law. These considerations are reduced to absurdity by the facts.
In March 2022 the scientific service of the Bundestag published a report on when a third country becomes a party to the conflict. This is for one and clearly the case when the supply and training of weapons is carried out for one party. Germany has fulfilled this requirement, among other things by training and supplying several Leopard 1 main battle tanks. A further and clear case would be if intelligence information is provided in decisive dealings. And Germany has fulfilled this requirement by providing Ukraine with data that can be used militarily by the Federal Intelligence Service (Bundesnachrichtdienst/BND). Germany has long been a party to the conflict on the Ukraine's side. [2,p=6] [2,p=9] [3] [4] [5]
The War of Aggression is already happening
A common accusation that from beyond the mainstream reporting is the accusation of planning an illegal attack. According to paragraph 13 of the International Criminal Code the planning, preparation, initiation or conduct of a war of aggression or any other act of aggression is illegal. But since the war is already taking place and since the discussion was about how the Ukraine can defend itself this paragraph does not apply here. [6]
Planning the use of military means is one task of military command personnel. And the creation of prerequisites shows the foresightedness of the aforementioned personnel. Even if the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles is still considered a taboo in Germany this does not mean that they will not be delivered. So far every taboo has been broken in order to continue supporting the Ukraine.
There is a lack of any targeted planning
The conversation shows that in the background only the delivery of what is currently available is planned. This support is based on what supporters are willing to deliver rather than what the Ukraine needs. Hesitant support therefore has no chance of success. Therefore this cannot be considered an option of action.
One possibility of action would be full participation with the supporters' forces in the non-contested areas of the Ukraine. These forces would then only be used as a deterrent. Such an approach initially seems as if it would expand the war. In fact the Russian armed forces have shown remarkable reluctance in standoffs with NATO forces. One example is the shooting down of a Russian ground attack aircraft by the NATO state Turkey in the Syrian war in 2015 which had largely no consequences. Another example is how Russia supports Syria militarily but avoids the forces of the NATO state USA in northern Syria. [7] [8]
Another option for action would be negotiations. There could be negotiations about an end or at least a freezing of the conflict. In fact shortly after the war began in March 2022 there were negotiations between both sides moderated by Israel. However the then Israeli Prime Minister stated that these negotiations were ended at the insistence of the USA and Great Britain. [9] [10]
The strategy of hesitant support is obviously inadequate and not productive. The question inevitably arises as to what the goal of this approach is. This strategy would only be effective if one wants to wear out the Russian armed forces at the expense of the Ukraine. This accusation becomes even more substantiated when it is taken into account that the former German Prime Minister Merkel (CDU) and the former French Prime Minister Hollande (PS) admitted that only wanted to buy time for the Ukraine with the Minsk Agreement. [11] [12]
Src:[1] Germany confirms bugging of Bundeswehr Ukraine war talks
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-confirms-bugging-of-bundeswehr-ukraine-war-talks/a-68424687
[2] Rechtsfragen der militärischen Unterstützung der Ukraine durch - NATO-Staaten zwischen Neutralität und Konfliktteilnahme 2022-03-16
https://www.bundestag.de/resource/blob/957632/44633615ad0618f5cd38c35ad0a30fe4/WD-2-023-23-pdf-data.pdf
[3] In Kiew: Pistorius verkündet Lieferung von mehr als 100 Panzern Leopard 1 2023-02-08
https://www.bmvg.de/de/aktuelles/mehr-als-100-panzer-leopard-1-fuer-die-ukraine-5579834
[4] Unterstützung für Ukraine - BND liefert militärisch nutzbare Daten 2022-09-28
https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/kontraste/ukraine-krieg-bnd-101.html
[5] Verteidigungskampf gegen Russland - BND liefert der Ukraine regelmäßig Geheimdiensterkenntnisse 2022-09-28
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bnd-liefert-der-ukraine-regelmaessig-geheimdiensterkenntnisse-a-f553500d-08a3-42d2-ab9a-aee935d37dd2
[6] Völkerstrafgesetzbuch (VStGB) - § 13 Verbrechen der Aggression
https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/vstgb/__13.html
[7] Verstimmung nach Jet-Abschuss 2015-11-24
https://www.dw.com/de/abschuss-von-russischem-kampfjet-putin-droht-der-t%C3%BCrkei/a-18873774
[8] Unterstützung nach Attacken - USA verlegen rund 900 Soldaten in den Nahen Osten 2023-10-27
https://www.n-tv.de/politik/USA-verlegen-rund-900-Soldaten-in-den-Nahen-Osten-article24492206.html
[9] Gescheiterte Friedensgespräche im Ukraine-Krieg: Jetzt meldet sich der russische Chefunterhändler zu Wort 2023-11-30
https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/ukraine-krieg-was-der-russische-chefunterhaendler-zu-den-gescheiterten-friedensgespraechen-sagt-li.2163544?id=862db38e49af48fa9dda1a58ff67202b
[10] Naftali Bennett wollte den Frieden zwischen Ukraine und Russland: Wer hat blockiert? 2023-02-06
https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/open-source/naftali-bennett-wollte-den-frieden-zwischen-ukraine-und-russland-wer-hat-blockiert-li.314871
[11] Angela Merkel: Abkommen von Minsk wurden unterzeichnet, um Ukraine „Zeit“ zu geben 2022-12-08
https://de.style.yahoo.com/angela-merkel-abkommen-minsk-wurden-123000992.html
[12] Nach Merkel auch Hollande: Minsk-Abkommen sollte Ukraine nur Zeit verschaffen 2023-01-02
https://tkp.at/2023/01/02/nach-merkel-auch-hollande-minsk-abkommen-sollte-ukraine-nur-zeit-verschaffen/
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