[Review] Stephan Schulmeister - The Road to Prosperity - The structure of Scientific Revolutions

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Addendum 2026-06-09:

The Review has been updated.

Siehe auch:
[Rezension] Stephan Schulmeister - Der Weg zur Prosperität - Die Struktur wissenschaftlicher Revolutionen

Stephan Schulmeister is an economist and lawyer from Austria who has little in common with the economically liberal so-called Austrian school. The economist born on August 26, 1947 was a research assistant at the Austrian Economic Research Institute (Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung/WIFO) for forecasts, economic development, financial markets and international trade from 1972 to 2012. The focus of his work is on the conflicts of interest between employees, employers from the real economy and the financial markets or financial capital.
According to Schulmeister the orientation of the economic order fluctuates permanently between real capitalism and financial capitalism. Long upswings are caused by an alliance of interests between employees and real capital and long downswings are caused by an alliance of interests between real capital and the financial markets or financial capital.

Before addressing an economic question in his 2018 book "The Road to Prosperity" Schulmeister describes the process of scientific theory formation. In doing so he explains the dynamics that stabilize established ideas while keeping non established ones out of the discourse. For Schulmeister these dynamics are crucial for effectively criticizing and refuting the prevailing doctrine or narrative.

Schulmeister begins his book with an excursus into scientific theory formation based on the book "Thomas S. Kuhn - The Structure of Scientific Revolutions" based on an essay by Ludwik Fleck. Here the formation of theories is described as a social process that is influenced by the balance of power within the society. Where the societal forces lie with the prevailing doctrine or rather the prevailing narrative. In the described negative scenario a worldview dominates and the competition of ideas ends. The starting point for this is the idea that people consider familiar thought processes as particularly correct and that their own thinking consists much more of what they have learned from others than what they have recognized themselves. [1, p.36-40]

And if it is such a closed thinking system with an exclusive claim for the truth, then new insights become all the more difficult. Schulmeister describes how every thinking collective resists changes and even more against contrary thinking patterns. Here he refers to Fleck according to which there is a tendency towards stagnation and harmony of deception in thought collectives. This means that in thought systems with exclusive claims to truth or in closed thought systems science progresses in leaps rather than linearly or the competition of ideas even ends. [1, p.36-40]

  1. " A contradiction to the system seems unthinkable. "
  2. " What doesn't fit into the system remains unseen, or "
  3. " it is kept secret, even if it is known, or "
  4. " it is explained as not contradicting to the system with great effort. "
  5. " One sees, describes and even depicts facts that correspond to the prevailing views, i.e. which are so to speak their realizations - despite all the rights of contradicting views. "
[1, p.41]

Point 1 signifies that certain conceptions have penetrated the thought collective so deeply that they have permeated everyday life and language. Consequently expressing or even conceiving of a contradiction becomes impossible.
Points 2 and 3 describe the frequency with which a system of thought is refuted. Initially there are exceptions then anomalies become overwhelming, and finally, a scientific revolution ensues.
Point 4 describes how a scientific hypothesis succeeds when it aligns with the intellectual interests of its thought collective. Thus alternative explanations can prevail even when the facts contradict the prevailing doctrine.
And Point 5 describes the creative fabrication often unconscious of facts or observations intended to support one's own theory. According to Schulmeister this represents the most active degree of the tendency of an opinion systems to persist. [1, p.41-42 , p.372(32)]

Das neue entsteht aus dem Zweifel am alten; dieser kann nur gedeihen, wenn man Beobachtungen gegenüber offen ist, sie sammelt und prüft: Welche Entwicklungen in der Realität kann ich meinem Weltbild "unterbringen", welche muss ich ausblenden?

The new emerges from doubt about the old; such doubt can only flourish if one remains open to observations, gathering and examining them: Which real world developments can I "accommodate" within my worldview, and which one must I disregard? [1, p.37]

Schulmeister thus explains how contradicting facts are ignored or reinterpreted in thinking systems with an exclusive claim to the truth and in closed thinking systems or even supposed facts are invented to confirm their worldview. For Schulmeister this dynamic corresponds to the prevailing climate in the debates on economic policy issues. So if one wants to know why the prevailing economic policy is doing so well or even considers it right one should be aware of the tendency towards stagnation and harmony of deception in thought collectives. [1, p.44-47]

The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones, which ramify, for those brought up as most of us have been, into every corner of our minds. John Maynard Keynes [1, p.379(31)]

Preview:

Src:
[1] Stephan Schulmeisters Buch - Der Weg zur Prosperität- ISBN 978-3711001481
[2] Welche Aufgaben kommen für die Sozialdemokratie? Schulmeister und Max Lercher 2018-05-07
https://youtu.be/iJzheZwCtV0
[3] Der Weg zur Prosperität Stephan Schulmeister Buchvorstellung WU in Wien 2018-06-08
https://youtu.be/_s2SJIKk204
[4] „Wir sind in gefährlicher Nähe zu den 1930er-Jahren.“ Stephan Schulmeister im Gespräch 2018-06-18
https://youtu.be/tL0kaHQTByA
[5] Stephan Schulmeister - Europas Weg in die Krise und zurück zur Prosperität 2018-06-22
https://youtu.be/cKy4Y5Zk8ig
[6] Märkte als Religionsersatz? | Stephan Schulmeister bei quer.denken. 2019-02-07
https://youtu.be/EUCGzOkfBtc

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