from Patricia Derer, The Overpopulation Project
We over age and die out: The fear of the consequences of demographic change manifests itself in similar ways especially in Germany where for more than four decades each year more people die than are born - a worldwide record. The government tries to counteract with generous family policies and liberal immigration regulations. With success: Today so many people live in Germany as never before and the birth rate is at a 40-year high.
Swedish researchers at the University of Gothenburg have now studied the consequences of demographic aging on the economy and the environment and arrive at very different conclusions: If the population ages due to low birth rates and increasing life expectancy and no longer grows or even shrinks slightly the overall economic costs are manageable but the environmental benefits are great. This is suggested by the results of the research team led by biology professor Frank Götmark. Consumption of natural resources could stabilize or even decline, soil sealing - meadows and other open spaces in a size of 100 soccer fields are newly concreted every day in Germany - could be throttled and CO2 emissions can be reduced more easily. All of this is necessary to combat climate change and stop species extinction in the animal world.
Conversely the economic disadvantages of an aging population are much lower than often feared according to the Swedish researchers. For example it is by no means proven that there is a shortage of skilled workers in the course of demographic change. Factors other than demography played a much greater role in this and how digitization and globalization - and especially in Germany, the transformation of the automotive industry - had an impact on the future demand for workers was still completely open. While it is undisputed that an aging population poses major challenges to the pension system and care this is the inevitable price of increasing life expectancy and there are also reasonable and affordable approaches to reforming the systems.
On the other hand it would not be expedient to combat the aging of society with a pro-natalist policy or by increasing immigration. On the one hand many studies have shown that demographic change can not be stopped by more births or more migration. Instead the growing population creates more problems than it solves: Raging housing shortages despite a construction boom, denser cities and impending traffic collapse, missing kindergarten places and crowded medical facilities. And the fight against climate change? Its chances of success are becoming ever smaller, according to Götmark, because according to studies population and economic growth are the decisive factors that led to pollution and destruction of the environment and the habitat for animals and plants.
Every year the world grows around the population of Germany. Although fertility rates are falling in many countries, the world's population will continue to rise for decades - with fatal consequences for the environment and the climate. In Germany and some other countries demographic change is already so advanced that the population would naturally shrink. A longer life expectancy according to Frank Götmark and his team is ultimately a civilizational achievement - which, of course, entails some challenges that have to be mastered. Instead of tackling aging and shrinking with dubious action, the Gothenburg researchers are calling for the environmental benefits of demographic change to be tackled and the fight against climate change to be seriously addressed.
We over age and die out: The fear of the consequences of demographic change manifests itself in similar ways especially in Germany where for more than four decades each year more people die than are born - a worldwide record. The government tries to counteract with generous family policies and liberal immigration regulations. With success: Today so many people live in Germany as never before and the birth rate is at a 40-year high.
Swedish researchers at the University of Gothenburg have now studied the consequences of demographic aging on the economy and the environment and arrive at very different conclusions: If the population ages due to low birth rates and increasing life expectancy and no longer grows or even shrinks slightly the overall economic costs are manageable but the environmental benefits are great. This is suggested by the results of the research team led by biology professor Frank Götmark. Consumption of natural resources could stabilize or even decline, soil sealing - meadows and other open spaces in a size of 100 soccer fields are newly concreted every day in Germany - could be throttled and CO2 emissions can be reduced more easily. All of this is necessary to combat climate change and stop species extinction in the animal world.
Conversely the economic disadvantages of an aging population are much lower than often feared according to the Swedish researchers. For example it is by no means proven that there is a shortage of skilled workers in the course of demographic change. Factors other than demography played a much greater role in this and how digitization and globalization - and especially in Germany, the transformation of the automotive industry - had an impact on the future demand for workers was still completely open. While it is undisputed that an aging population poses major challenges to the pension system and care this is the inevitable price of increasing life expectancy and there are also reasonable and affordable approaches to reforming the systems.
On the other hand it would not be expedient to combat the aging of society with a pro-natalist policy or by increasing immigration. On the one hand many studies have shown that demographic change can not be stopped by more births or more migration. Instead the growing population creates more problems than it solves: Raging housing shortages despite a construction boom, denser cities and impending traffic collapse, missing kindergarten places and crowded medical facilities. And the fight against climate change? Its chances of success are becoming ever smaller, according to Götmark, because according to studies population and economic growth are the decisive factors that led to pollution and destruction of the environment and the habitat for animals and plants.
Every year the world grows around the population of Germany. Although fertility rates are falling in many countries, the world's population will continue to rise for decades - with fatal consequences for the environment and the climate. In Germany and some other countries demographic change is already so advanced that the population would naturally shrink. A longer life expectancy according to Frank Götmark and his team is ultimately a civilizational achievement - which, of course, entails some challenges that have to be mastered. Instead of tackling aging and shrinking with dubious action, the Gothenburg researchers are calling for the environmental benefits of demographic change to be tackled and the fight against climate change to be seriously addressed.
Kommentare
Kommentar veröffentlichen