[Domestic Policy] The CDU and the import of voters

In Germany in 2016, 9.2 million people or 11.2 percent of the population had a foreign citizenship. With 70 percent most of them came from Europe. The largest groups were Turkish with 15 percent, Polish with 8 percent, Syrian with 6 percent, Italian with 6 percent and Romanian nationals with 5 percent. In total the number of people with a migration background in Germany in 2016 was around 18.6 million. Of these, 2.3 million people in Germany have their roots in the Near and Middle East and 740,000 are of African descent. And the trend is rising. [1] Already 58 percent in Germany desire less or no immigration at all. Thus Germany is above the European average of 51. Only 10 percent want more immigration while 30 percent cope with the current situation. So the silent majority is against more immigration. [2]

In Germany in 2015 5.4 percent follow Islam. By 2050 and depending on immigration the proportion of those who follow Islam will increase to between 8.7 to 19.7 percent. Interestingly three quarters see this as a threat to a varying degree. Only less than a quarter does not see it as a threat. [3]

This can become a problem. Parties with a conservative profile or those who are critical of immigration could come into distress due to the demographic change. In July 2014 the strategy paper Recovering the big cities (Die großen Städte zurückerobern) was published by CDU politician Kai Wegner. In it the CDU is attested declining attractiveness as a result of demographic change. Wegner describes big cities (metropolises) that are changing as a result of migration and advocates so called metropolitan politicians who can win more voters in such cities. [4]

The strategy paper seems to have paid off. In September 2018, the German Council of Experts for Integration and Migration published a study on the voting behavior of people with a migrant background. In 2016 around 40 percent considered the SPD the best party. In 2018 only 25 percent of them considered the SPD the best party. The popularity for the Greens declined from 13.2 to 10 percent. In contrast the popularity of the CDU/CSU rose from 27.6 percent in 2016 to 43.2 percent in 2018. So the policy of open borders makes sense. It's just not the voters who benefit from it. [5]

[1] Migration in Zeiten des demografischen Wandels
https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/_Querschnitt/DemografischerWandel/DemMigration.html
[2] Many worldwide oppose more migration – both into and out of their countries 2018-01-01
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/12/10/many-worldwide-oppose-more-migration-both-into-and-out-of-their-countries/
[3] The Growth of Germany’s Muslim Population 2017-11-29
http://www.pewforum.org/essay/the-growth-of-germanys-muslim-population/
[4] Die großen Städte zurückerobern 2014-06-18
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/cdu-papier-100.pdf
[5] CDU und CSU sind erstmals die beliebtesten Parteien bei Zuwanderinnen und Zuwanderern 2018-09-27
https://www.svr-migration.de/presse/presse-forschung/parteipraeferenzen2018/

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