[Foreign Policy] Kertsch, Election and the Atlantic Council

In 2014 a change of government took place in the Ukraine. President Viktor Yanukovych was voted out of office by the Ukrainian parliament. [1] [2] The impeachment procedure under Article 108 however violated Article 111 because the Ukrainian Constitutional Court was not involved. [3] Meanwhile US diplomats Geoffrey Pyatt and Victoria Nuland bluntly planned the future government of Ukraine and expressed their stance on the EU as "Fuck the EU". [4] And Hunter Biden the son of former Vice President Joe Biden was elected to the board of directors of the Ukrainian gas company Burisma. [5] [6]

In the meantime the Autonomous Republic of Crimea has declared its independence against the will of Ukraine. [7] And shortly thereafter Russia conducted a referendum on its connection in the Crimea. It was not an annexation but the secession was not legally sound either. The mere presence of Russian forces outside their leased territory was in violation of international law. [8] The status of the Crimea is therefore controversial the Ukraine and Russia are disagreeing on the legal status. However anyone who accepts Russia's de facto control of Crimea as justification promotes the right of the fittest. A complete legitimacy of Russian politics because the majority of Crimea is inhabited by Russians and was in the past part of Russia is also questionable. Everywhere in Europe are areas where minorites of other countries live or who once belonged to another country. The Austrian South Tyrol in Italy, the Hungarian minority in Romania and the former eastern provinces of Germany are only the best known examples with such potential for escalation.

On November 25, 2018 three Ukrainian boats drove in this complicated situation. Two Gyurza-M artillery boats named Berdyansk and Nikopol and a tug named Yany Kapu drove into the Kerch Strait between Crimea and mainland Russia. According to the Russian government the boats have violated Articles 19 and 21 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea by carrying out dangerous maneuvers and refusing orders from the Russian Navy. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea regulates passage through straits such as the street of Kerch. Article 19 aims to ensure territorial sovereignty and Article 21 aims to ensure the safety of waters. [9] [10] [11] All three boats were confiscated by the Russian Navy and brought to the port of Kerch. According to the FSB two other boats from Berdyansk were already on the way. Both however reversed prematurely. [12] Both sides report that firearms were used by the Russian side to confiscate the Ukrainian boats. Both sides blame the other side for the escalation. [13] [14] The Ukrainian side immediately demanded the release of the crew. Furthermore, Ukraine has imposed martial law for 30 days to strengthen its own defense capabilities in Ukraine. The US government has joined in its criticism of Ukraine and blames Russia for the escalation. Both Ukraine and the US do not recognize Crimea as part of Russia and therefore do not see any mistakes on the part of Ukrainian boats. [15]

The status of the Crimean peninsula remains disputed between Ukraine and Russia. And the proclamation of martial law could be abused to stabilize the precarious situation in Ukraine in favor of the Poroshenko administration. Martial law suspended for its duration among other demonstrations and elections. [16] And the approval rates of Petro Poroshenko are currently very low. He would not stand a chance of winning the presidential elections. In surveys the former Prime Minister and entrepreneur from the gas sector Yulia Tymoshenko remains at the top. [17] But until further notice elections are scheduled for March 31, 2019. [18] The incident did not seem necessary. The approval rates for Petro Poroshenko remain poor but the elections are still planned. [19] [20]

One day after the incident on November 26, the think tank Atlantic Council published the article "Russia's Provocations in the Sea of ??Azov: What Should Be Done?". Here the incident is classified as an act of war. [21]
"By any standard, these are acts of war. "
In addition the incident offers the opportunity for a demonstration of power. The incident could be used to bring NATO into play and show that Russia has lost the Ukraine.
"Bringing NATO directly into Ukrainian waters would demonstrate that Putin has not gained Russian lands but lost Ukraine for good and brought NATO into the bargain. It strikes at the political foundations of Putin’s power and belief in NATO’s irresolution without escalating a military challenge. It would also restore escalation control to Ukraine and its allies and drive a dagger into the heart of Russian strategy without resorting to war. "
Furthermore the article aims specifically at the bridge between the Crimea and the Russian mainland.
"Ukraine should give careful consideration to a special operation that might disrupt the bridge that Moscow built over the Kerch Strait that joins Crimea to Russia. "
The construction of the bridge was condemned by Ukraine. It would aim the connection of the Crimea which the Ukraine calls annexation. In fact Russia can use the bridge to control traffic between the Black Sea and the Sea of ??Azov.

In addition a friendship treaty between Ukraine and Russia applies since 1999. This document should have been renewed automatically every ten years. On September 19, Ukraine decided not to extend this contract. [22] [23] The contract also deals with the Sea of ??Azov. According to the contract warships should not or were not allowed to enter without the consent of both states. The provocative incident could thus cause a further escalation in Ukraine. [24,Art.17 ru] [24,Art.17 ua]

The events in the Strait of Kerch will in any case continue to burden bilateral relations and also restrict civilian shipping traffic. The Ukrainian side has been on the defensive since the change of government in 2014 anyway. The population of the Ukraine fell by 165,600 people from January to September. [25] And activists who work for more justice are often simply liquidated. [26] Western governments which are also responsible for the situation in Ukraine could take responsibility and help stabilize and support Ukraine. The people of Ukraine need economic help and no sanctions against Russia or military support.

[1] Ukrainian MPs vote to oust President Yanukovych 2014-04-22:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26304842
[2] Parliament votes 328-0 to impeach Yanukovych on Feb. 22; sets May 25 for new election; Tymoshenko free 2014-04-23:
https://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/ukraine-politics/euromaidan-rallies-in-ukraine-feb-21-live-updates-337287.html
[3] CONSTITUTION OF UKRAINE:
https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/eoir/legacy/2013/11/08/constitution_14.pdf
[4] Ukraine crisis: Transcript of leaked Nuland-Pyatt call 2014-04-07:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957
[5] Vice President Joe Biden's son joins Ukraine gas company 2014-05-14:
https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-echochambers-27403003
[6] Muted response to Biden son's Ukraine job 2014-05-16:
https://www.dw.com/en/muted-response-to-biden-sons-ukraine-job/a-17641022
[7] Ukrainian prosecutors demand annulment of declaration of Crimea independence 2014-03-12:
http://tass.ru/en/world/723101
[8] DIE KRIM UND DAS VÖLKERRECHT: Kühle Ironie der Geschichte 2014-04-08:
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/feuilleton/debatten/die-krim-und-das-voelkerrecht-kuehle-ironie-der-geschichte-12884464.html?printPagedArticle=true#pageIndex_0
[9] United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea:
http://www.un.org/Depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf
[10] Three Ukrainian warships intrude into Russia’s territorial waters - FSB 2018-11-25:
http://tass.com/emergencies/1032402
[11] Russlands Marine stoppt ukrainische Schiffe nach Eindringen in russische Gewässer 2018-11-26:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=At1G-oDgE3I
[12] Ukrainian ships detained in Black Sea delivered to Kerch port 2018-11-26:
http://tass.com/defense/1032458
[13] All three Ukrainian Navy vessels that violated Russia’s border detained in Black Sea 2018-11-26:
http://tass.com/politics/1032454
[14] Ukraine accuses Russia of opening fire on some of its ships in Black Sea 2018-11-25:
https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN1NU0XR
[15] Ukraine Declares Martial Law Along Borders With Russia, Black Sea 2018-11-27:
https://www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-demands-russia-release-ukrainian-sailors-ships/4673893.html
[16] UPDATE: What martial law in Ukraine could mean for nation 2018-11-26:
https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/what-martial-law-in-ukraine-could-mean-for-nation.html
[17] Opinion polling for the 2019 Ukrainian presidential election:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Ukrainian_presidential_election,_2019
[18] Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada approves presidential elections on March 31, 2019 2018-11-27:
http://tass.com/world/1032768
[19] Poroshenko sends West proposals on sanctions on Russia for Kerch incident 2018-12-05:
https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/550981.html
[20] President calls on the world to strengthen sanctions against Russia and increase the presence of NATO in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov 2018-12-05:
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/prezident-zaklikaye-svit-posiliti-sankciyi-proti-rosiyi-ta-z-51766
[21] Russia’s Provocations in the Sea of Azov: What Should Be Done? 2018-11-26:
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russia-s-provocations-in-the-sea-of-azov-what-should-be-done
[22] Ukraine Set To Inform Russia of Termination Of Friendship Treaty 2018-09-19:
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-terminate-russia-friendship-treaty/29499023.html
[23] Moscow regrets Ukraine’s decision not to extend friendship treaty 2018-09-25:
http://tass.com/politics/1022968
[24] http://docs.cntd.ru/document/1902220 / http://zakon5.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/643_006
[25] 2018-11-19:
https://112.ua/obshchestvo/naselenie-ukrainy-s-yanvarya-po-sentyabr-sokratilos-na-1656-tys-chelovek-470348.html?fbclid=IwAR36Ode3PZBsQfdJFmQm4qCM3gr880FMlsxWkJh6lys4kcjf7amyS4oy0SY
[26] Die Galerie der Ermordeten 2018-11-11:
https://www.infosperber.ch/Artikel/Politik/Ukraine-Korruption-Aktivisten-Morde/&g=ad

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