[Economics] European Gas Storage - Fill Level, Shortage and Forecast

Siehe auch:
[Wirtschaft] Europäische Gasspeicher - Füllstand und Prognose

There is currently much speculation about the fill level of Germany's gas storage facilities. The questions are how long they will last or even if they will last until they are typically refilled. While these questions are valid figures are often replaced by "expert's opinions" and unexplained assessments. The following will broaden the perspective and examine the fill levels of European gas storage facilities.
Predictions are always difficult especially when they concern the future. Nevertheless the following is a non-binding forecast based on the available figures.

The key function of German gas storage facilities is not to supply the entire country or even several countries on their own. Gas storage facilities can store natural gas for extended periods thus transforming the flow of natural gas via pipeline or LNG into a stable in-stock supply.
This is relevant because it reduces fluctuations in production/extraction. And this is particularly important because natural gas consumption is not constant but fluctuates. In 2025 peak consumption was almost four times higher than peak consumption (Feb. 2025: 3926 GWh/day, Aug. 2025: 1181 GWh/day).
In this way the price of natural gas can be stabilized as the higher demand during the heating season does not meet with constant or lagging production/extraction. Instead natural gas imports can be replaced by the gas storage facilities to stabilize the price.

[ a]

Europe's gas storage levels in 2025 were average compared to previous years (2021-24). In 2026 storage levels are also average compared to previous years (2021-24) although slightly lower then in 2025. In the fifth calendar week the gas storage level in 2026 was 47 million cubic meters compared to 60 million cubic meters in 2025. In previous years (2021-24) the gas storage level in the fifth calendar week was at least 39 and at most 77 million cubic meters. [1a]

Country	Capacity / TWh	Gas Storage - Fill Level (4. Feb. 2026) / %
Belgium	9	30
Bulgaria	7	52
Denmark	10	35
Germany	251	29
France	126	58
Italy	203	41
Croatia	5	44
Latvia	25	55
Netherlands	144	27
Austria	101	43
Poland	36	22
Portugal	4	61
Romania	34	80
Slovakia	37	48
Span	36	39
Czechia/td>	47	29
Ukraine	320	19
Hungary	68	19

[1]

Furthermore imports of natural gas and LNG in 2025 and 2026 are comparable to previous years (2021-24). Only in the first five calendar weeks of 2025 imports were slightly below those of previous years (2021-24). [1b]

[1b]

[1b]

The following forecast predicts the gas storage levels starting in the fifth calendar week. Unfortunately complete figures for production, imports, and exports are not available. Consequently the development of the storage levels is forecasted by using the development of the levels in previous years (2021-2025) as a benchmark. First the change in the levels from previous years is determined until they begin to increase again.

[1a]

Finally, the figures are compiled. According to this European gas storage facilities will reach their minimum level of 21,000 to 35,000 million cubic meters in the eleventh to seventeenth calendar week. Should individual countries therefore have low levels in their own gas storage facilities a redistribution of existing reserves would still be possible. It can be assumed that any potential shortage of natural gas in Europe is solely a distribution-problem or -conflict.

[1a]

In any case panic and doomsday scenarios should be avoided. The fear of a natural gas shortage and the inappropriate actions of the then-federal government exacerbated the price shock in 2022-23.
After the German Federal Government has called for the second of three levels of alert about a shortage in June 2022. The subsequent price increase can be attributed primarily to the decisions of the German Federal Government to fill the local gas storage facilities as quickly as possible. The German Federal Government had publicly announced to save the country from an impending scarcity of natural gas. For this the company Trading Hub Europe (THE) has been given the sovereign order to fill the gas storages at the technically maximum speed. The price should explicitly not be respected while purchasing. [3] [4]

This behavior has caused two predictable consequences. By not paying attention to the price excessively high prices were inevitably paid. In fact since June 2022 the price rose from approximately 80 Euros/MWh to up to 337 Euros/MWh. That was an increase of 321%. And the money for these price levels with inevitably come down to the end consumers. A repetition of such dynamics should be prevented. And encouraging the repetition of these mistakes is either a sign of poor mental health or just dishonesty. [5]

Src:
[1] European natural gas imports
https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/european-natural-gas-imports
[1a] Weekly Storage EU & UA 2026-02-06
https://www.bruegel.org/sites/default/files/2026-02/Gas%20Tracker%20update%20week%205%202026.zip
[1b] country_data_2026-02-06
https://www.bruegel.org/sites/default/files/2026-02/Gas%20Tracker%20update%20week%205%202026.zip
[3] Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz ruft Alarmstufe des Notfallplans Gas aus – Versorgungssicherheit weiterhin gewährleistet - 2022-06-23
https://www.bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/Pressemitteilungen/2022/06/20220623-bundesministerium-ruft-alarmstufe-des-notfallplans-gas-aus.html
[4] Wie ein gelernter Schornsteinfeger massenhaft Gas für Deutschland kauft - 2022-08-04
https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/energiekrise-die-gashamster-zu-besuch-bei-trading-hub-europe-a-d663942e-bd73-453c-b5bb-bd87aef4df03
[5] Gaspreise Großhandel in EUR/MWh
https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Gasversorgung/aktuelle_gasversorgung/_svg/Gaspreise/Gaspreise.html