At least from the outside the dispute over the exit of Great Britain from the EU seems chaotic and an exit seems threatens to make Britain a failed state.
The queen might even be brought to safety in case of a Brexit but Great Britain will at least be threatened to go out the toilet paper.
A narrative of fear is established.
Prime Minister Theresa May (Conservative) looks like she's losing support in her party.
And Jeremy Corbyn (Labor) seems to be fighting for reason and for the interests of the working class.
However after the recent events both may be closer than expected and a Brexit far away.
[1]
[2]
And to prevent a new conflict Great Britain agreed to the Irish backstop. This should avoid a conflict should an all-encompassing agreement not be reached. But both sides have not yet agreed on clear terms. Therefore it is not yet clear how exactly the "Irish Backstop" will turn out. The narrative of fear appears here as a threat to a new conflicts. [3] [4] [5]
The EU would agree to a membership of Northern Ireland in the common single market of the EU. For Great Britain however this would be a de facto border within the country and a step that would promote the secession of Northern Ireland. But since the Northern Ireland conflict does not affect the other EU member states one side could simply open the border for citizens from Ireland or Northern Ireland. And Britain could even be less sanctioned by the EU than Ireland after leaving the EU. The threat is therefore more appearance than fact. [3] [4] [5]
But an extension of the negotiations could have a high price. In the meantime the EU is preparing to demand Great Britain to pay a fine for postponing the withdrawal. The EU could demand 1 billion Pound Sterling per month from Great Britain. It is already reasonable to assume that the EU is making an example out of Great Britain. However the biggest hurdle for leaving could be Jeremy Corbyn (Labor). [8] [9] [10]
In accordance with local laws the Treaty of Nice which is a treaty within the EU had to be ratified in Ireland by a referendum. However after the Treaty of Nice was rejected on June 7, 2001 a second referendum took place on October 19, 2002 following a comprehensive media campaign. [18,p.68] [18,p.72] [19] [20] The Treaty of Lisbon which is also a treaty within the EU was rejected in 2005 in referendums in France and the Netherlands. However the Treaty of Lisbon was then simply signed and implemented. [21] [22] [23] [24] And the Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine was also rejected in a referendum in the Netherlands in 2016. But this had not changed the implementation of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. [25]
[1] 'Bewildering, dire, disastrous': Queen has a Brexit escape plan, but how bad will it be? 2019-02-11
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2019/02/11/queen-has-a-brexit-escape-plan-how-bad-will-eu-exit-be/2799312002/
[2] Brexit: Toilet paper maker stockpiles in a case of no-deal 2019-03-21
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-47640908
[3] Q&A: The Irish border Brexit backstop 2018-12-13
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-44615404
[4] EUROPE - Brexit: Why is the Irish backstop so controversial? 2019-01-29
https://www.dw.com/en/brexit-why-is-the-irish-backstop-so-controversial/a-47273841
[5] What Is the Irish Backstop, and Why Is It Holding Up Brexit? 2019-01-30
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/30/world/europe/irish-backstop-brexit.html
[6] NEWS - British lawmakers vote to reject no-deal Brexit by 321 to 278 2019-03-13
https://www.dw.com/en/british-lawmakers-vote-to-reject-no-deal-brexit-by-321-to-278/a-47895802
[7] Europe - British Parliament votes to delay Brexit, rejects a second referendum for now 2019-03-14
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/brexit-vote-delay-and-second-referendum/2019/03/14/d97ffdd8-4405-11e9-94ab-d2dda3c0df52_story.html
[8] EU prepares to demand multi-billion-pound increase on divorce payment from Britain in return for Brexit delay 2019-03-10
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/10/eu-prepares-demand-multi-billion-pound-increase-divorce-payment/
[9] EU 'will charge Britain £1billion a month' over any Brexit delay if Theresa May is forced to ask for an extension this week 2019-03-11
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6793499/EU-charge-Britain-1billion-month-Brexit-delay.html
[10] EU 'will charge Britain £1billion a month' over any Brexit delay if Theresa May is forced to ask for an extension this week 2019-03-11
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexit/eu-will-charge-britain-%C2%A31billion-a-month-over-any-brexit-delay-if-theresa-may-is-forced-to-ask-for-an-extension-this-week/ar-BBUBOzl
[11] Corbyn: no talks with May until no-deal Brexit is off table 2019-01-16
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/16/corbyn-no-talks-with-may-until-no-deal-brexit-is-off-table
[12] Corbyn: 'Remove prospect of catastrophe' 2019-01-16
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-politics-46899801/jeremy-corbyn-remove-prospect-of-catastrophe-of-a-no-deal-brexit
[13] Politics - Corbyn Bows to Pressure, Agrees to Back Second EU Referendum 2019-02-25
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-25/corbyn-bows-to-pressure-and-agrees-to-back-new-brexit-referendum
[14] UK's Jeremy Corbyn: Risk of no-deal Brexit 'very serious' 2019-02-21
https://www.dw.com/en/uks-jeremy-corbyn-risk-of-no-deal-brexit-very-serious/a-47618553
[15] Labour MPs warn Corbyn: back a second referendum or we quit 2019-02-13
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/13/labour-mp-submits-plan-for-referendum-on-brexit-deal
[16] Jeremy Corbyn, Under Pressure From His Labour Party, Backs New Brexit Vote 2019-02-25
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/25/world/europe/Jeremy-Corbyn-brexit-referendum.html
[17] Europe - Jeremy Corbyn says Labour would back a second Brexit referendum 2019-02-25
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/jeremy-corbyn-says-labour-would-back-a-second-brexit-referendum/2019/02/25/ea765b14-392e-11e9-b10b-f05a22e75865_story.html
[18] REFERENDUM RESULTS 1937 – 2015
https://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/migrated-files/en/Publications/LocalGovernment/Voting/referendum_results_1937-2015.pdf
[19] Ireland rejects Nice treaty 2001-06-08
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jun/08/eu.politics
[20] Ireland says yes to Nice treaty 2002-10-21
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ireland/1410856/Ireland-says-yes-to-Nice-treaty.html
[21] Référendum du 29 mai 2005 2005-05-29
https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Elections/Les-resultats/Referendums/elecresult__referendum_2005/(path)/referendum_2005/000/000.html
[22] When France 'ignored' the result of an EU referendum 2016-07-28
https://www.thelocal.fr/20160628/brexit-rethink-a-look-at-frances-2005-eu-referendum
[23] EUROPE - Ignoring the Public, French Parliament Approves EU Treaty 2008-02-08
https://www.dw.com/en/ignoring-the-public-french-parliament-approves-eu-treaty/a-3114579
[24] The Lisbon Treaty - questions and answers 2008-06-13
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/2123697/EU-Referendum-The-Lisbon-Treaty-questions-and-answers.html
[25] Dutch referendum voters overwhelmingly reject closer EU links to Ukraine 2016-04-07
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/06/dutch-voters-reject-closer-eu-links-to-ukraine-in-referendum
Irish Backstop
If the debates are just long enough then the warnings of all sides ultimately boil down to the need to prevent an Irish border. While the Republic of Ireland remains a sovereign state and will remain in the EU independent of the outcome of Brexit, Northern Ireland remains part of Great Britain. With the "Good Friday Agreement/Belfast Agreement" between the Republic of Ireland and Great Britain the Northern Ireland conflict de facto ended. An essential part of the "Good Friday Agreement/Belfast Agreement" is avoiding a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.And to prevent a new conflict Great Britain agreed to the Irish backstop. This should avoid a conflict should an all-encompassing agreement not be reached. But both sides have not yet agreed on clear terms. Therefore it is not yet clear how exactly the "Irish Backstop" will turn out. The narrative of fear appears here as a threat to a new conflicts. [3] [4] [5]
The EU would agree to a membership of Northern Ireland in the common single market of the EU. For Great Britain however this would be a de facto border within the country and a step that would promote the secession of Northern Ireland. But since the Northern Ireland conflict does not affect the other EU member states one side could simply open the border for citizens from Ireland or Northern Ireland. And Britain could even be less sanctioned by the EU than Ireland after leaving the EU. The threat is therefore more appearance than fact. [3] [4] [5]
To remain or not to leave
For the withdrawal of Britain from the EU the government is seeking an agreement on the future relationship with the EU. If Prime Minister May (Conservative) fails to negotiate a proposal with the EU and fails to ratify it in parliament the future relationship with the EU will be governed by the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO). So far however every proposal has been rejected by parliament. And in order not to leave the EU without an agreement on March 14, 2019 the parliament voted in favor of a postponement on the planed withdrawal for March 29, 2019 and rejected a second referendum. [6] [7]But an extension of the negotiations could have a high price. In the meantime the EU is preparing to demand Great Britain to pay a fine for postponing the withdrawal. The EU could demand 1 billion Pound Sterling per month from Great Britain. It is already reasonable to assume that the EU is making an example out of Great Britain. However the biggest hurdle for leaving could be Jeremy Corbyn (Labor). [8] [9] [10]
The government must remove clearly once and for all the catastrophe of a no-deal exit from the European Union and all the chaos that would result from that.Corbyn (Labor) wants Great Britain to remain in the EU's single market and rejects a no-deal scenario where Great Britain falls back on the World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. But by staying in the single market of the EU he accepts the economically liberal free trade in the extremely unequal competition and abandons the criticism of this wage dumping. Great Britain will then continue to compete with the low-wage countries of Eastern and Southeastern Europe. And with the exclusion of a no-deal scenario he abandons the leverage of Great Britain in the negotiations with the EU. He should think twice about both. [11] [12] [13] [14]
Jeremy Corbyn (Labour), 16. Januar 2019 [11] [12]
One way or another, we will do everything in our power to prevent no-deal and oppose a damaging Tory Brexit based on Theresa May’s overwhelmingly rejected deal.
Jeremy Corbyn (Labour), 25. Februar 2019 [13]
It's not always about elections
In case of emergency there could also be a second referendum about the withdrawal. Corbyn (Labor) has already confirmed that a second referendum would be an option for him. And it is likely that a second referendum would also be an option for the EU. For the EU it would be a threat if Great Britain would be better off after an exit than before because the others could follow. But a successful withdrawal could be prevented by generally preventing a withdrawal. Such behavior has already occurred several times in the past. [15] [16] [17]In accordance with local laws the Treaty of Nice which is a treaty within the EU had to be ratified in Ireland by a referendum. However after the Treaty of Nice was rejected on June 7, 2001 a second referendum took place on October 19, 2002 following a comprehensive media campaign. [18,p.68] [18,p.72] [19] [20] The Treaty of Lisbon which is also a treaty within the EU was rejected in 2005 in referendums in France and the Netherlands. However the Treaty of Lisbon was then simply signed and implemented. [21] [22] [23] [24] And the Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine was also rejected in a referendum in the Netherlands in 2016. But this had not changed the implementation of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. [25]
[1] 'Bewildering, dire, disastrous': Queen has a Brexit escape plan, but how bad will it be? 2019-02-11
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2019/02/11/queen-has-a-brexit-escape-plan-how-bad-will-eu-exit-be/2799312002/
[2] Brexit: Toilet paper maker stockpiles in a case of no-deal 2019-03-21
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-47640908
[3] Q&A: The Irish border Brexit backstop 2018-12-13
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-44615404
[4] EUROPE - Brexit: Why is the Irish backstop so controversial? 2019-01-29
https://www.dw.com/en/brexit-why-is-the-irish-backstop-so-controversial/a-47273841
[5] What Is the Irish Backstop, and Why Is It Holding Up Brexit? 2019-01-30
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/30/world/europe/irish-backstop-brexit.html
[6] NEWS - British lawmakers vote to reject no-deal Brexit by 321 to 278 2019-03-13
https://www.dw.com/en/british-lawmakers-vote-to-reject-no-deal-brexit-by-321-to-278/a-47895802
[7] Europe - British Parliament votes to delay Brexit, rejects a second referendum for now 2019-03-14
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/brexit-vote-delay-and-second-referendum/2019/03/14/d97ffdd8-4405-11e9-94ab-d2dda3c0df52_story.html
[8] EU prepares to demand multi-billion-pound increase on divorce payment from Britain in return for Brexit delay 2019-03-10
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/10/eu-prepares-demand-multi-billion-pound-increase-divorce-payment/
[9] EU 'will charge Britain £1billion a month' over any Brexit delay if Theresa May is forced to ask for an extension this week 2019-03-11
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6793499/EU-charge-Britain-1billion-month-Brexit-delay.html
[10] EU 'will charge Britain £1billion a month' over any Brexit delay if Theresa May is forced to ask for an extension this week 2019-03-11
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexit/eu-will-charge-britain-%C2%A31billion-a-month-over-any-brexit-delay-if-theresa-may-is-forced-to-ask-for-an-extension-this-week/ar-BBUBOzl
[11] Corbyn: no talks with May until no-deal Brexit is off table 2019-01-16
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/16/corbyn-no-talks-with-may-until-no-deal-brexit-is-off-table
[12] Corbyn: 'Remove prospect of catastrophe' 2019-01-16
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-politics-46899801/jeremy-corbyn-remove-prospect-of-catastrophe-of-a-no-deal-brexit
[13] Politics - Corbyn Bows to Pressure, Agrees to Back Second EU Referendum 2019-02-25
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-25/corbyn-bows-to-pressure-and-agrees-to-back-new-brexit-referendum
[14] UK's Jeremy Corbyn: Risk of no-deal Brexit 'very serious' 2019-02-21
https://www.dw.com/en/uks-jeremy-corbyn-risk-of-no-deal-brexit-very-serious/a-47618553
[15] Labour MPs warn Corbyn: back a second referendum or we quit 2019-02-13
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/13/labour-mp-submits-plan-for-referendum-on-brexit-deal
[16] Jeremy Corbyn, Under Pressure From His Labour Party, Backs New Brexit Vote 2019-02-25
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/25/world/europe/Jeremy-Corbyn-brexit-referendum.html
[17] Europe - Jeremy Corbyn says Labour would back a second Brexit referendum 2019-02-25
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/jeremy-corbyn-says-labour-would-back-a-second-brexit-referendum/2019/02/25/ea765b14-392e-11e9-b10b-f05a22e75865_story.html
[18] REFERENDUM RESULTS 1937 – 2015
https://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/migrated-files/en/Publications/LocalGovernment/Voting/referendum_results_1937-2015.pdf
[19] Ireland rejects Nice treaty 2001-06-08
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jun/08/eu.politics
[20] Ireland says yes to Nice treaty 2002-10-21
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ireland/1410856/Ireland-says-yes-to-Nice-treaty.html
[21] Référendum du 29 mai 2005 2005-05-29
https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Elections/Les-resultats/Referendums/elecresult__referendum_2005/(path)/referendum_2005/000/000.html
[22] When France 'ignored' the result of an EU referendum 2016-07-28
https://www.thelocal.fr/20160628/brexit-rethink-a-look-at-frances-2005-eu-referendum
[23] EUROPE - Ignoring the Public, French Parliament Approves EU Treaty 2008-02-08
https://www.dw.com/en/ignoring-the-public-french-parliament-approves-eu-treaty/a-3114579
[24] The Lisbon Treaty - questions and answers 2008-06-13
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/2123697/EU-Referendum-The-Lisbon-Treaty-questions-and-answers.html
[25] Dutch referendum voters overwhelmingly reject closer EU links to Ukraine 2016-04-07
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/06/dutch-voters-reject-closer-eu-links-to-ukraine-in-referendum